The weight loss drug market is undergoing another shake-up. Compounded GLP-1 versions are gone, direct-to-consumer pricing is here, and telehealth partnerships are unraveling.
For traders, that means volatility in Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and telehealth stocks like Hims & Hers.
From shortages to shutdown
For more than a year, compounding pharmacies filled the gap when branded Wegovy (Novo) and Zepbound (Lilly) couldn’t meet demand.
Knockoff semaglutide versions sold for $200–300/month, far below Wegovy’s $1,350 list price. By early 2025, more than 1 million patients were on compounded drugs.
That ended May 22, when the FDA declared shortages over and barred large-scale compounding. Patients lost access overnight.
What’s next for patients?
- Cash-pay options: Novo and Lilly now sell branded drugs direct-to-consumer for ~$499/month. Novo even offered a $199 promo month.
- Telehealth tie-ins: Firms like Ro, LifeMD, and Teladoc have struck deals to distribute discounted branded versions.
- Breakdown risk: Novo’s partnership with Hims collapsed this week, wiping 30% off Hims’ stock in one session.
Lingering gray areas
Some telehealth providers still advertise compounded semaglutide at $165/month under the “personalized prescription” loophole.
Novo accuses them of hiding behind “false guise” to keep competing with Wegovy. The FDA has yet to draw a clear enforcement line.
Winners and losers
- Eli Lilly (LLY): Prescription data shows Zepbound sales +24% QoQ. Analysts view Lilly as the long-term winner.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Wegovy growth is slower (+5–6% QoQ). Partnership disputes add headline risk.
- Hims & Hers (HIMS): Shares collapsed on Novo split. Remains a volatile day-trading vehicle.
- Telehealth sector: Partnerships with Lilly may provide stability, but regulatory risk is high.
Trading setups
| Ticker | Bias | Key Level | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Bullish | $690.50 support | Buy dips for swing into $716.50–$739 on strong prescription trends. |
| NVO | Neutral / Watch | $57.05 resistance | Breakout above $57.05 targets $62.25; failure risks pullback to $47.50. |
| HIMS | Speculative Short-term | $52.00 – $59.00 | Gap fades possible. High-risk intraday scalp candidate. |
Bottom line
The weight loss drug market is still messy. Novo and Lilly are consolidating control, but telehealth players face turbulence.
For traders, that means focus on LLY for strength, NVO for breakout potential, and HIMS as a speculative volatility play.
Expect headlines to keep this group in motion for months to come.