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March 18 Chart of the Day – FL

Sterne Agee just recommended that investors buy Foot Locker (FL).

“Foot Locker is a better way to capture Nike’s strength,” they noted, “as Foot Locker has the ability to curate the best of athletic brands.”

Unfortunately, I wouldn’t take the advice just yet.

The stock is now massively over-extended on RSI, MACD and MFI.

Each time RSI moves above its 70-line, the stock pulls back. Each time MACD pushes to 2.0, the stock pulls back. And each time MFI moves above its 80-line, the stock pulls back.

All three are above those key lines again now.

Buying Foot Locker at this level is not a good move. Wait for it to pull back to the mean before throwing cash at the name.

Foot Locker

Foot Locker

March 11 Chart of the Day – MRK

In a move that’ll increase competition, lower drug prices, and save million of patients, the FDA approved the country’s first “biosimilar” drug.

Generic drug makers are developing them at low-cost, as an alternative to brand name biologic drugs that are developed from living cells.

At the moment, biologic drugs costs the country about $82 billion a year, accounting for up to 22% of annual spending on drugs. But biosimilar drugs could lop an estimated $47 billion off that price tag, and save consumers quite a bit of money.

In fact, the FDA just approved the first one last week.

While we’re searching for inexpensive stocks to buy, one of our favorite companies involved is Merck (MRK). As the story heats up, so should the stock at recent lows.

MRK 3-year Chart

MRK 3-year Chart

March 10 Chart of the Day – RSX

Russia may be one of the most despised markets in the world by most standards.

But patience has a way of paying out as much as 40,000%.

The Russian market is still cheap with a P/E of just under five, as compared to about 17 on the S&P 500.

But the thing I like most about Russian markets is the consistency of performing well after a beating. In 1998, Russian stocks collapsed 75% before running up more than 40,000%. In 2008, Russia fell 75% again. Over the next three years, it bounced 300%.

Keep an eye on Russian ETFs like the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) as a way to trade the crisis.

Granted, the RSX is likely to correct shortly, but it’s still an impressive way to trade a long-term Russian recovery.

RSX 3-year

RSX 3-year

Feb. 24 Chart of the Day – DE

After a substantial run, Deere (DE) is just starting to fall apart at substantial resistance points going back 10 years. MFI has already turned south. And it’s only a matter of time before MACD and RSI turn lower, too.

Worse, after beating earnings by 35%, the company saw a 43% decline in net year over year. It also warned of a difficult 2015. Downside here has only just begun.

Sadly, many investors are about to lose big here after following Warren Buffett into the trade in recent days. Buffett now owns 5%, or 17.1 million.

I doubt he’s concerned about the latest chances for a big pullback, though.

He’s more interested in what the stock can do over the next 18 years, not the next 18 days.


DE 5-year Chart


Feb 19 Chart of the Day – DJIA

I say this at every top. Be cautious.

We’re about to take a bad dive to the 200-day moving average in early March, especially if Greece and Europe can’t come to an agreement.

I’ve been watching the market with great concern, as the major indices challenge heavy triple top resistance with bearish signs on MACD, MFI and RSI beginning to emerge.

If this top gives way with no real sustainable news or momentum, the Dow could easily reverse back to its 200-day moving average. I’ve seen this happen -- and play out the same way – going back to late 2013.

We also have to consider the likelihood for greater volatility if oil continues to fall, and if the Greece bailout talks fail to result in anything positive by March 1, 2015 deadline. The Greek government has fully rejected an extension so far.

Europe is already on the brink of depression. If this Greek issue is not resolved by the set deadline, it could set off a firestorm all over Europe.

I have a feeling things will not end well.