Figma earnings miss: What traders need to know now
Figma’s first report as a public company came in hot on revenue growth—but cool on expectations—sending shares sharply lower after hours.
Below is the fast read for day-traders and swing-traders, followed by deeper context and scenarios.
Key numbers at a glance
- Q2 revenue: $249.6M (+41% y/y) vs. ~$250M consensus (slight miss)
- Net income: $846K (essentially breakeven) vs. Street expecting +$0.09 EPS
- Q3 guide (revenue): $263M–$265M (roughly in-line to modestly above)
- FY25 guide (revenue): $1.021B–$1.025B (in-line)
- After-hours move: ~-10% on the release
- Valuation: ~200× ’25E EPS vs. Adobe ~17× (premium multiple)
Coverage snapshot: 11 analysts tracked by FactSet—4 Buy, 7 Hold (lukewarm overall).
Why the stock got hit
- Expectations > results: Revenue grew fast but landed just shy of consensus; FY/Q3 outlook was fine on paper yet not the “beat-and-raise” that a premium multiple often demands.
- Multiple risk: At ~200× earnings vs. mature peers in the teens, any wobble gets punished.
- AI debate: Some fear AI could compress workflows and seats; bulls counter that new AI features (e.g., prototyping tools) expand the platform. Street is split.
- Competition & disruption: Incumbents and newer entrants alike continue to press, adding uncertainty to share gains and pricing power.
Actionable angles (1-minute read)
| Trader | Setups & Triggers | Risk Framing |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Trader | Gap-down open: watch premarket low and VWAP. Short the fail if rallies reject VWAP with declining tape; fade the flush only on capitulation + reclaimed VWAP with rising volume. | Size down early; use HOD/LOD and VWAP as hard invalidation. Avoid mid-range churn between VWAP and first 15-minute extremes. |
| Swing | Look for a higher low above the IPO-anchor or 10-DMA before initiating long risk. Alternatively, wait for a base-and-break through the first post-earnings balance high. | Place stops under the most recent swing low; don’t average down into a sliding multiple-compression tape. |
Pro tip: Anchor VWAP to the IPO date (Jul 31) to gauge where longer-term participants are “in.”
What happened & why it mattered
The Figma earnings miss was modest on the top line, but when a name carries a venture-grade multiple in public markets, “good” isn’t enough—investors want unmistakable upside vs. consensus and a confident path to operating leverage.
Guidance that’s merely in-line can still feel like a downgrade when expectations are stretched.
Beyond the print, sentiment was already cooling across some high-profile 2025 debuts that sprinted out of the gate before retracing.
Figma still trades well above its IPO price despite volatility. Still, performance clusters in this cohort have grown more selective as the market reprices AI hopes, competitive intensity, and the cost of capital.
Bull vs. bear case (condensed)
Bullish tells
- Durable >30% revenue growth off a large base.
- Platform expansion (design → collaboration → prototyping) with AI features that could increase adoption.
- Brand strength in product/design orgs; long runway for enterprise seat growth.
Bearish tells
- Premium multiple leaves little room for execution hiccups.
- Competitive overlap with large platforms and emergent AI-native tools.
- Macro/IT budgets and AI efficiency gains may slow seat expansion or pricing power.
Scenarios to plan for
- Trend continuation lower: Early VWAP rejection with lower highs → favor follow-through shorts into measured supports; cover into exhaustion wicks.
- Mean-reversion bounce: Capitulation flush + reclaim of VWAP/first resistance → probe longs with tight stops; partials at prior intraday supply.
- Range day: Respect balance highs/lows; fade edges only with confirmation (failed break + volume dry-up).
Bottom line
After the Figma earnings miss, price will likely trade in a tug-of-war between premium expectations and solid—yet not spectacular—execution.
In our playbook, that means letting VWAP do the talking, trading the reaction (not the headline), and sizing risk to the reality that multiple compression moves fast.