Today's War Room Trading Recap

📈 Major Market Drivers

1. Oil Prices Declined (~2%)

• U.S. President Trump suggested Iran might be open to negotiations, easing fears of a supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz and knocking nearly 2% off oil prices. That drop helped reduce inflation concerns for equities2. Federal Reserve Outlook

• Markets looked ahead to the Fed’s 2 p.m. ET decision. Wall Street widely expected rates to remain unchanged, but investors were focused on Powell’s comments and the updated economic projections.

• Futures showed about a 47 bps cut priced in by end‑2025, and a 56% probability of a 25 bp cut in September 

3. Geopolitical Relief

• Despite ongoing Israel‑Iran tensions, the suggestion of de‑escalation with Iran helped sentiment. Notably, global oil dropped and equities rallied modestly.

4. Economic Data Mixed

• Jobless claims ticked down, hinting at slight softening in the labor market.

• Housing starts were weaker, indicating persistent tightening — a mixed economic backdrop.

---

🧭 Market Performance Snapshot

• Dow: +168 pts (~+0.4%)

• S&P 500: +0.4%

• Nasdaq: +0.55%

• Sector winners: Consumer discretionary led, while energy lagged due to cheaper oil.

Standout stock moves:

• Tesla: +2.7%

• Marvell Technology: +7%

• Circle Internet (crypto stablecoin): +16% after U.S. Senate advanced a stablecoin regulatory bill.

• Nucor: +3.6% after exceeding Q2 profit forecasts.

---

🌍 Global & Other Highlights

• Treasury yields cooled slightly—10-year around 4.36% and 2-year near 3.93%—as traders awaited Fed guidance.

• International markets: Mixed signals—U.K. inflation steady, geopolitical jitters weighed in India, and European/Asian indices diverged .

---

🧭 Bottom Line

Markets rallied mid‑day as oil eased and positive sentiment toward the Fed’s anticipated calm. However, underlying caution remained due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties. The real catalyst will come with Jerome Powell’s remarks and updated rate outlook later in the Fed press conference.