Novo Nordisk Cuts 2025 Guidance as GLP-1 Momentum Cools; Stock Slips After Q3 Miss
Novo Nordisk Cuts Guidance – Quarter at a glance
- EPS: 4.50 DKK vs. 4.90 DKK est.
- Revenue: 75.0 bn DKK vs. 76.5 bn DKK est.
- Wegovy sales: 20.3 bn DKK (vs. 21.2 bn est.)
- Ozempic sales: 30.7 bn DKK (vs. 30.3 bn est.)
- One-offs: ~9 bn DKK restructuring charges tied to ~9,000 layoffs
Updated 2025 outlook
- Sales growth (CER): 8%–11% (from 8%–14%)
- Sales growth (reported): ~4%–7%
- Operating profit growth: 4%–7% (from 4%–10%)
- Drivers: tempered GLP-1 expectations (Wegovy/Ozempic)
Strategy Narrows, Novo Nordisk Cuts Guidance, as Governance Turbulence Persists
New CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo will focus tightly on obesity, diabetes, and related cardiometabolic conditions, exiting “non-core” assets. The declaration follows an unusually tumultuous stretch for the historically steady company, marked by a CEO ouster, a full refresh of the independent directors, and a planned workforce reduction of ~11%.
Metsera Bidding War Raises the Stakes
Novo thrust itself into a bidding fight with Pfizer for obesity biotech Metsera, floating an offer that could reach approximately $ 10 billion. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen defended the price and pre-approval structure—paying most of the consideration upfront—calling it a function of negotiations and consistent with the sharpened focus on obesity. Pfizer has sued on antitrust grounds; Novo says the deal is lawful.
What’s Slowing—and What Isn’t
After years of “hyper growth,” management stated that GLP-1 expansion is decelerating into Q4, with Wegovy missing its target and Ozempic slightly exceeding estimates. Investors, already unnerved by summer volatility and guidance resets, remain focused on near-term U.S. pricing, capacity, and competitive dynamics versus Lilly.
Policy Watch: Pricing and Coverage
Reports indicate Novo and Lilly are in discussions with the White House over lower prices for small doses and potential Medicare coverage for weight-loss use cases. Knudsen declined specifics, signaling only that “there will be a deal to be announced at some point.” Any framework that expands payer access while preserving margins would be a key catalyst for the GLP-1 class.
Investor Take
- Near term: Guidance trim, restructuring costs, and Wegovy miss = pressure on shares.
- Medium term: Metsera bid could deepen the pipeline, but adds execution, legal, and integration risk.
- Key swing factors: U.S. pricing/coverage outcomes, manufacturing throughput, and Lilly’s launch cadence.
Note: All figures are as reported by the company and industry sources cited in the original coverage; DKK = Danish krone; CER = constant exchange rates.