Hey everyone, here we are, typical fed day today, and we are looking at a market that doesn’t know what it wants to do. So we had a big move lower that got into support from a couple of days ago at 295.05, followed by a swing higher, swing lower, swing higher, swing lower swing higher. It looks like it’s trending up, but given what’s going to happen over the course of the rest of the day, we don’t know. I’ve been short several times today at the 297.69 pivot.
So twice at 297.69 and then a third time, I was waiting for a short at the pivot, but it broke right through, and I shorted into the 298.27 line. That represented an overlap with a 2SD excursion from the mean, and it looked like that would have all the potential in the world to get back down to the pivot or maybe down to 297.15 and this anchored VWAP. Right now it looks more like it will probably get up into a new high and stop me out. But we’ll see what happens. We’ll see if it decides to take another swing. The other indicators of what’s going on in the market are pointing higher.
I missed the stochastic crossover that got way up into the range. But that only sometimes means that it’s going to be persistent. The persistence on this thing will be indicated by something that happens that keeps the price up above the 80 line and forms support. If it does, we should see a move higher into the rest of the session, and if that happens, we will need to look for some price action that gives us the typical 1-2-3 movement headed up to that R1 pivot.
So it’s going to be that kind of a day where you need to stay frosty, and you need to stay loose. And if the volatility of the fed is not your thing, then it’s a good day to sit on the sidelines and let things play out. Come back tomorrow and play the reaction moves we get in the market over the day.
Right now, I’m still looking for a reversion back down to 297.15, but if 298.27 gets me down to 297.69 at the pivot and then bounces, I’ll take it off at 297.80. So that’s the game plan. I hope that helps. We had a great morning this morning in the first-hour trading pit.
I will see everybody tomorrow morning.
