Lowe’s Housing Rebound

Overview

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison is positioning the company to seize growth when U.S. housing demand rebounds. Despite today’s sluggish home improvement market, Ellison is focused on long-term fundamentals, Pro market expansion, and technology adoption.

Strategic Foundations

• Retail fundamentals: Supply chain modernization, IT upgrades, and stronger digital/brick-and-mortar integration.
• Capital allocation: Investing in operations, sustaining dividend aristocrat status, and share buybacks.
• Appliance delivery edge: Lowe’s can deliver/install appliances in two days to nearly every U.S. ZIP Code, boosting growth in big/bulky categories.

Housing Rebound Playbook

Ellison sees two scenarios driving future demand:

• Lock-in effect: Homeowners with low mortgage rates and high equity eventually invest in renovations, regardless of interest rates.
• Rate-driven inflection: A psychological shift could occur if mortgage rates fall below ~6%, spurring turnover and spending.

Lowe’s has prepared for both—serving DIY customers who stay put and gearing up for Pro demand when new construction accelerates.

Pivot Toward the Pro Market

Since 2018, Lowe’s has raised Pro revenue share from 19% to about 30%. The acquisitions of Artisan Design Group and Foundation Building Materials expand exposure to single- and multi-family construction, opening a $250 billion addressable market.

Tariffs & Sourcing Strategy

• ~60% of goods sourced from the U.S., up sharply in recent years.
• 20% from China, 10% from Mexico, and 10% from other global markets.
• Diversification reduces risk and helps mitigate cost pressures from tariffs.

Innovation & AI Tools

Lowe’s has partnered with Palantir, Nvidia, and OpenAI to create Mylow, an AI assistant embedded in Lowe’s.com and its app. The tool simplifies complex projects for customers and helps train associates quickly, reducing friction in home improvement decision-making.

Ellison also highlighted new demographic strategies, including an influencer network led by Mr. Beast, aimed at engaging younger homeowners.

Bottom Line

With supply chain upgrades, Pro expansion, sourcing diversification, and AI-powered tools, Lowe’s is positioned to capture growth once the housing cycle rebounds. Ellison’s long-term approach reflects confidence that demographic demand and eventual rate relief will spark a new era of home improvement spending.