Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Trump’s 104% Tariff Spurs Retaliation and Global Market Turmoil
U.S.-China Trade War Escalates in 2025: Trump’s 104% Tariff Spurs Retaliation and Global Market Turmoil
A Renewed Trade Battle Between Two Economic Superpowers
The ongoing economic chess match between the U.S. and China took a dramatic turn on April 8, 2025, as the Trump administration announced a sweeping 104% tariff on all Chinese exports to the United States, effective at midnight. The announcement came just hours after China imposed a 34% tariff on American goods, reigniting tensions that many believed had cooled since the original 2018 trade skirmishes.
In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called China’s move a “strategic mistake,” pointing out the stark trade imbalance—$438.9 billion in Chinese exports to the U.S. compared to just $143.5 billion in U.S. exports to China in 2024.
China Strikes Back with 84% Tariff on American Goods
On April 9, Beijing doubled down, unveiling an 84% tariff on $23 billion worth of U.S. imports, including key commodities such as soybeans, poultry, and diamonds. Chinese officials warned they would “fight till the end,” framing the U.S. action as economic blackmail.
This tit-for-tat escalation has rattled investors and policymakers worldwide. The S&P 500 opened higher but quickly lost momentum, while European and Asian markets tumbled on fears of a global slowdown.
Global Markets React: Volatility Surges, Oil Prices Plunge
The ripple effects have been swift and severe. Oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel, hitting their lowest level since 2021. Bond markets experienced steep sell-offs, and central banks in the EU and UK issued warnings about rising risks to financial stability.
President Trump defended the tariffs as a catalyst for reshoring U.S. manufacturing and reducing dependency on foreign imports, stating, “This is a great time to bring companies back home.” However, economists and analysts voiced concerns about rising costs, slower growth, and the potential for long-term damage to the global economy.
Will This Escalate Into a Full-Blown Global Recession?
Experts warn that the trade war may have just entered a prolonged phase. Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong and economist Zhiwei Zhang stressed that the uncertainty could dampen global GDP growth, disrupt supply chains, and usher in a new era of economic nationalism.
As of now, neither side shows any signs of backing down. The EU is also considering its own countermeasures against recent U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, which could widen the conflict into a multi-continent trade war.
What Traders and Investors Should Watch
If you’re a trader or long-term investor, these are the key areas to monitor:
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Tariff timelines and updates from both governments
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Global market reaction, especially commodities and manufacturing
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Supply chain disruptions affecting multinational companies
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Currency fluctuations, particularly USD/CNY volatility
We’ll continue covering these developments in the War Room and provide real-time trade setups influenced by tariff-driven volatility.
April 8, 2025
Trump Tariffs 2025: Impact on Markets, Economy, Trading Strategy
Trump Tariffs 2025: Impact on Markets, Recession Fears, and Trading Strategy
The Trump tariffs 2025 impact is already sending shockwaves through global financial markets. With sweeping new duties on Chinese goods and Beijing’s swift retaliation, traders are navigating a fast-changing landscape filled with opportunity and risk.
Tariffs Spark Global Selloff and Recession Concerns
On Friday, former President Donald Trump announced a major escalation in his trade war strategy, proposing 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports if re-elected. This move, outlined in Financial Times, triggered an immediate response from Chinese officials, who levied retaliatory duties targeting key American exports.
As reported by Bloomberg, U.S. stock futures plunged Friday morning, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% in premarket trading. Technology and manufacturing stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. JPMorgan analysts warned that the Trump tariffs’ 2025 impact could push the U.S. economy into a shallow recession later this year (Bloomberg report).
What This Means for Traders
For active traders, the impact of Trump’s tariffs in 2025 will translate to increased market volatility and sector-specific risk. Historically, tariff announcements have led to sharp price dislocations, particularly in the first trading hour—a key time window for strategies we cover extensively in our Opening Gap Mastery Class and One Hour Trader programs.
This is an environment where:
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Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples often outperform.
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Export-heavy tech and industrial names are likely to underperform.
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Futures and volatility traders can benefit from sudden momentum shifts.
Institutional Outlook: JPMorgan Issues Recession Warning
According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan’s research desk now places the odds of a U.S. recession at 65% if Trump regains office and enacts his proposed tariff plan. The bank highlights the drag on GDP growth, supply chain disruptions, and a likely Fed policy pivot in response to slowing economic activity.
The impact of Trump’s tariffs in 2025 has also led to increased inflows into bond markets, pushing yields lower—a sign that investors are moving to safe-haven assets amid growing uncertainty.
China Responds: Escalation or Negotiation?
CNBC reports that China’s immediate response includes 25% tariffs on U.S. auto exports and new restrictions on U.S. tech firms operating in mainland China. These measures are already weighing on companies like Tesla and Apple, which have substantial exposure to Chinese markets.
Traders should anticipate continued headline-driven price swings and be prepared for overnight gaps in U.S. equity and futures markets.
Political Fallout: Cruz Warns of GOP Backlash
As the impact of Trump’s 2025 tariffs reverberates through markets, political ramifications are also coming into focus. According to Bloomberg, Senator Ted Cruz publicly cautioned that aggressive trade policies could trigger voter backlash and jeopardize Republican control of Congress in the 2026 midterms.
Cruz highlighted the economic pain likely to be felt in key states that rely heavily on trade with China, especially Texas, which could see disproportionate fallout in the energy, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. The political calculus adds another layer of complexity to the Trump tariffs 2025 impact, as traders now must also weigh how election forecasts and public policy shifts could influence market direction.
Why This Matters to Traders
Uncertainty breeds volatility. With Cruz signaling internal GOP divisions over tariffs, traders should anticipate:
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Additional headlines influencing short-term market direction
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Legislative resistance that could slow or alter proposed tariffs
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Shifting sentiment in politically sensitive sectors (energy, agriculture)
As always, staying agile and informed is key when trading markets driven by both economic and political headlines.
How to Trade the Trump Tariffs 2025 Impact
Focus on Volatility
This market favors traders who know how to capitalize on momentum and reversals. Strategies like our NASDAQ Volatility Band Plan are specifically designed to exploit rapid price movements during geopolitical and macroeconomic events.
Stick to Proven Patterns
If you’re in our Income Trading Boot Camp, now is the time to revisit the playbook: Fastball, XRV, and Baltimore Chop. These setups work especially well when institutional activity drives intraday movement.
Watch Sector Rotation
Stay sharp on sector-based trades. Materials, defense, and energy names tend to rotate in and out of favor based on policy headlines. Check out our sector trading webinar replay for more insight.
Final Thoughts
The Trump tariffs 2025 impact is likely to remain a dominant market narrative well into election season. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just building your strategy, understanding how to adapt to these macro shifts is essential. The right tools, strategies, and discipline will help you turn chaos into opportunity.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz
April 2, 2025
Tariffs – How to Profit from Trading Volatility and Order Flow
Capitalizing on Market Volatility and Order Flow Amid New Tariffs
As the United States approaches April 2, designated by President Donald Trump as “Liberation Day,” the nation stands on the precipice of significant economic transformation. The administration’s plan to implement extensive tariffs aims to recalibrate trade balances and bolster domestic industries. However, this strategy carries a spectrum of anticipated effects across various sectors, from consumer goods to manufacturing, and extends its influence into the global economic arena. For those engaged in trading volatility and order flow, this economic backdrop presents both challenges and opportunities.
Executive order for tariff increases is signed by President Trump
Impact on Consumer Prices
The imposition of tariffs is poised to directly affect consumer prices, particularly in essential categories such as food and automobiles. For instance, the average cost of 3 pounds of frozen beef, currently at $26.67, could rise to $27.76 under a 10% tariff on all goods, with even steeper increases if higher tariffs are applied to specific imports. Such price escalations are expected to strain household budgets, especially for families already navigating financial constraints. (The Independent)
Manufacturing Sector Challenges
The manufacturing landscape is experiencing heightened uncertainty. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI declined to 49.0 in March, indicating contraction after a brief period of growth. Factors contributing to this downturn include decreased new orders, reduced factory production, and increased input costs due to tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum. These challenges have led to job reductions within the sector, with expectations of further employment declines as the full impact of tariffs unfolds. (U.S. News and World Report)
Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have responded with notable volatility. The S&P 500 entered a technical correction in March, largely attributed to apprehensions surrounding the impending tariffs. Investors are bracing for potential inflationary pressures, diminished corporate profits, and decelerated economic growth. Sectors such as technology and automotive have experienced significant stock fluctuations, reflecting broader market trepidation.
Labor Market Implications
The labor market is showing signs of strain, with job openings decreasing by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February. This reduction is largely attributed to the economic uncertainty spurred by the new tariffs. Economists express concern that these trade policies may lead to further layoffs and a slowdown in hiring, potentially elevating unemployment rates in the near term. (Reuters)
Global Trade Relations and Economic Outlook
Internationally, the tariffs have elicited apprehension among trading partners, raising the specter of retaliatory measures and escalating trade tensions. This climate of uncertainty has prompted financial institutions to adjust economic forecasts downward. Goldman Sachs, for example, has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% within the next year, citing the administration’s trade policies as a significant factor. (Wall Street Journal)
Why This “Bad News” is Good News for Traders
While these developments spell trouble for consumers and long-term investors, they open a window of opportunity for traders who specialize in trading volatility and order flow. Market uncertainty fuels short-term price swings, volume surges, and institutional repositioning—all of which can be profitably exploited by nimble traders.
Traders using strategies such as Volatility Band Trading, 2SD Opening Gap plays, and order flow analysis can benefit from the chaos that shakes long-term portfolios. To improve your ability to profit from these conditions, check out our Volatility Band Trading Plan, or dive into the 2SD Gap Strategy.
These turbulent markets are also ideal for those enrolled in the Income Trading Boot Camp, which trains traders to harness trading volatility and order flow with institutional-grade tactics.
Conclusion
As “Liberation Day” approaches, the anticipated tariffs are set to usher in a period of economic recalibration. While the administration aims to strengthen domestic industries and address trade imbalances, the immediate and medium-term effects suggest a complex landscape. Consumers may face higher prices, industries could grapple with increased costs and supply chain disruptions, and the broader economy may experience heightened volatility.
However, in active trading, these conditions highlight the importance of mastering trading volatility and order flow. Traders equipped with the right strategies, tools, and mindset may find that the greatest potential for profit lies in market turmoil.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz