Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Polaris Stock Soars on Indian Motorcycle Sale
Polaris Stock Soars on Indian Motorcycle Sale — What It Means for Harley-Davidson
Deal at a Glance
Indian Motorcycle contributed about **$478 million**, or **7%** of Polaris’ trailing-12-month revenue.
Polaris also preannounced guidance: Q3 top-line in the range of **$1.6B to $1.8B**, with adjusted EPS between **$0.31 and $0.41** — above consensus expectations. The deal is expected to close in early 2026.
Why the Market Loves It
- Indian has long weighed on Polaris’ margins. Separating it frees management to refocus on the core powersports business.
- It crystallizes value through an external valuation, which could support multiple expansions in the remaining business.
- The move gives Polaris flexibility and cleaner earnings leverage, which investors tend to reward.
- Spillover: Harley-Davidson (HOG) reacted positively, climbing ~2.8% intraday, as valuation comparisons and industry optics shift.
Trading Implications & Key Levels
PII (Polaris)
- Price action: Stock rallied ~13.9% on the news to $69.87. Sharp reversal and volume confirm strong interest.
- Support / Resistance: Support zone near **$63–$65**. Resistance in the near term around **$75–$78**. A sustained breakout above $78 could aim toward $90+, depending on spin-off multiples.
- Trade setups: Intraday, look for dip-buy setups into $66–68 with tight stops. Swing trades: holding above $65 keeps bias bullish toward the upper resistance zones.
HOG (Harley-Davidson)
- Harley often trades as a comparator in the motorcycle sector. A firm valuation assigned to Indian could influence multiple tweaks in HOG.
- Resistance near **$28.50**, support near **$24–$25**. Watch for momentum spills: HOG above $28.50 on relative strength vs PII could signal rotational flows.
Sector & Macro Context
The powersports and motorcycle segment has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and soft discretionary spending. This deal injects a catalyst and reorients the narrative toward value extraction and operational focus.
A well-executed spin-off and independent valuation of Indian could reset how the market views “niche motors” in the U.S. recreational vehicle category. For Harley, perception could shift from legacy brand to undervalued name relative to its peers.
Bottom Line
The Polaris Indian Motorcycle sale is a clean slate move that could drive multiples higher. For traders, PII is the name to watch — especially if the spin-out narrative gains traction. HOG’s reaction is worth following for sector spillover moves.
Dow Marks Biggest Comeback Since April
Dow Marks Biggest Comeback Since April as China Tensions Roil Markets
What Sparked the Whipsaw
- Morning hit: Beijing sanctioned several U.S. shipping subsidiaries, pressuring cyclicals and global transport names.
- Midday headline: President Trump posted about potential restrictions on Chinese cooking oil exports and labeled China’s soybean stance “economically hostile,” reigniting risk-off flows.
- Buyers step in: Value sectors and defensives led a sharp afternoon recovery; tech lagged into the close.
Market Internals & Psychology
The Dow’s swing from -1.3% to green reflects robust dip demand at recent support. The S&P’s late fade underscores lingering headline risk and an embedded geopolitical risk premium. As 22V Research’s Dennis DeBusschere put it, “de-escalation should be the base case longer term,” but the China overhang won’t vanish without concrete talks on the calendar.
Trader’s Take — Levels & Setups
- S&P 500 (cash): Support 5,560 (intraday low). Reclaim/hold above 5,640 = potential continuation toward 5,675–5,690. Lose 5,560 and the door opens to 5,520.
- Dow: Momentum support 39,850. Above that, upside magnets 40,300–40,450. Failure = retest 39,500.
- Nasdaq 100: Watch 18,900 as pivot; below favors growth de-risking toward 18,650.
- VIX: Closed sub-16 but sensitive to tape bombs; consider tactical long vol on pops in tariff rhetoric.
Sector Rotation — Who Led the Rebound?
- Leaders: Financials, Industrials, Energy, Staples (defensive bid + value rotation).
- Laggards: Mega-cap Tech & Semis on geopolitical risk and multiple compression worries.
- Wildcard: Ag/food chain (soybeans, processors, edible oils) on trade headlines; watch for outsized single-name moves.
What to Watch Next
- De-escalation signals: Any scheduling of bilateral talks = risk-on impulse; lack thereof keeps a premium on defensives.
- Earnings tape: Money-center banks’ beats can stabilize breadth if geopolitics quiets.
- Rates: 10-year yield easing supports equities; a push back above 4% could cap rallies.
Bottom Line
The Dow’s outsized reversal shows buyers remain active, but the S&P’s late drift lower says uncertainty still rules the tape. Expect choppy ranges and headline-driven opportunities: trade smaller, respect levels, and let VWAP guide bias until China-related risk clarifies.
Tesla AI stock 2025?
Why Tesla Stock Is a Must-Own in the Age of AI
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged 5.4% Monday to close at $435.90, rebounding from Friday’s sharp selloff. The move was fueled by a new bullish call from Melius Research, which initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $520 price target. Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla is positioned to lead the next wave of industrial disruption driven by artificial intelligence.
AI as the Next Catalyst
Wertheimer called Tesla a “must-own” stock, arguing that AI-driven automation will “wreck multi-trillion dollar industries, starting with auto.” Tesla’s end-to-end integration of software, hardware, and data gives it a competitive edge that traditional automakers cannot replicate. From self-driving algorithms to humanoid robotics, Tesla’s “AI flywheel” continues to accelerate.
“Tesla and the Musk ecosystem combine technology, design, and manufacturing in a way no one else can,” Wertheimer wrote. The company is effectively a hybrid of AI lab, EV manufacturer, and robotics company—a rare combination that could redefine its valuation beyond traditional auto metrics.
Market Context
The bullish upgrade arrives amid broader macro turbulence. President Trump reassured markets that his administration’s trade standoff with China will not derail the economy. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3% on Monday, helping lift risk sentiment in growth sectors.
Tesla remains a bellwether for the EV and AI convergence trade. Its integration of large-scale computing, energy storage, and autonomy data provides exposure to three high-growth verticals simultaneously: transportation, power, and machine learning.
Trader’s Take
- Momentum Watch: After rebounding from $410 support, Tesla is back above its 20-day moving average. Intraday traders should watch $440 for continuation and $426 for downside confirmation.
- Short-Term Setup: Above $440, price targets align with $455 and $470. Failure to hold $426 could trigger a retracement toward $410.
- Swing Trade View: As long as Tesla holds above $410, the bias remains bullish toward $520–$540 in Q4, especially if the AI and robotaxi narrative gains traction.
- Sector Read-Through: Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Mobileye (MBLY) often move in sympathy. Traders can monitor correlation strength for rotational plays within the AI-auto ecosystem.
Why It Matters
Tesla’s AI positioning transcends EV manufacturing — it’s about data ownership and compute capacity. With full self-driving capability nearing commercial viability and the Optimus robot expected to enter pilot deployment, Tesla’s core multiple may shift toward software-style valuation metrics in the coming year.
Nearly 47% of analysts now rate Tesla a Buy, and the stock’s ability to rally despite macro pressure reinforces its leadership in both AI and EV narratives.
Bottom Line
Tesla is trading less like an automaker and more like a tech platform. The latest upgrade underscores the idea that Musk’s AI ecosystem could become the defining growth story of 2025.
For traders, pullbacks toward $420–$425 are likely to attract dip buyers targeting a re-test of $450+ as momentum builds.