Investors expect revenue of $46 billion for the July quarter — a 53% year-over-year increase, though well below the triple-digit growth seen in 2023.
Guidance and commentary on AI spending, cloud customer demand, and China chip sales will be the proper drivers of market reaction.

Valuation Concerns and Macro Backdrop

Nvidia trades at nearly 40 times forward earnings, far above the Nasdaq 100’s 28 times multiple and the long-term average of 22 times.
This leaves little room for disappointment. Recent cautionary notes from MIT and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have reminded investors that the AI growth curve may face challenges.

Still, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have committed to over $350 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year, suggesting continued demand for Nvidia’s GPUs.

Key Watchpoints for Traders

• Revenue and Guidance: The consensus is $46B in revenue and strong AI-related guidance. Whisper numbers may be even higher — any shortfall could spark volatility.
• China Exposure: Traders will watch commentary on Nvidia’s H20 chips and the unconventional licensing deal with the Trump administration.
• Valuation Pressure: At these multiples, even a “beat” could trigger selling if forward guidance isn’t compelling.
• Macro Sensitivity: Nvidia’s report may sway not just tech but the entire equity complex, much like an economic data release.

Implications for Day Traders

1) Expect High Intraday Volatility

Nvidia earnings days often produce sharp overnight gaps and wide intraday ranges.
Gap-and-go vs. gap-fill setups around VWAP and opening range extremes will be in play both tomorrow and Thursday.

2) Sympathy Trades

Monitor mega-cap peers — MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL — and AI-levered names like SMCI, ARM, PLTR.
Strong or weak Nvidia results often trigger sector-wide sympathy moves, offering multiple opportunities for scalping and momentum trading.

3) Options Activity

Implied volatility is elevated going into earnings.
Watch for IV crush in options the morning after the release, as making short-term directional bets becomes higher risk unless timed with precision.

Implications for Intermediate-Term Traders

1) Trend Continuation vs. Exhaustion

A strong beat and bullish guidance could reinforce Nvidia’s leadership in the AI trade, supporting continuation of the uptrend toward new highs.
A disappointment could trigger a corrective phase across tech, especially given stretched valuations.

2) Sector and Index Weight

Nvidia’s size makes it a dominant force in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
Intermediate-term traders should monitor whether strength (or weakness) in Nvidia translates into broader index momentum.

3) Macro + Micro Crossroads

As Morgan Stanley notes, both Nvidia’s fundamentals and the macro outlook matter at this stage.
Intermediate-term investors should consider whether the momentum behind AI spending offsets broader economic headwinds, such as tariffs, inflation, or rising interest rates.

What to Watch Next

1. Nvidia’s Q2 earnings call commentary on AI demand and supply chain.
2. Any updates on China chip licensing and geopolitical risks.
3. Broader market reaction — does Nvidia lift or sink the S&P 500?

• The Trump administration is preparing to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports in response to New Delhi’s ongoing purchases of Russian crude oil.
• A planned US trade delegation to India was canceled, signaling a hardening of Washington’s stance.
• India continues to import roughly 1 million barrels/day of Russian oil, down from its peak earlier this year, while exploring alternative suppliers.
• Indian officials have strengthened their long-standing ties with Moscow, emphasizing both commercial and strategic rationales.
• India’s trade with the US is valued at $130 billion annually, far higher than the $68 billion trade with Russia—yet Russia remains its largest defense and energy partner.

Why It Matters Geopolitically

India is effectively challenging Washington’s attempt to limit Russian revenues while balancing its need for affordable energy and military supply chains.
Moscow has been a consistent partner since the Cold War, and despite the US being India’s largest trading partner, New Delhi is reluctant to abruptly shift its energy dependence.

Analysts note that a tariff standoff could mark a new phase in the India-US relationship, which has oscillated between cooperation and confrontation.
Strategic trust with Russia remains a safety net for India, contrasting with what many in New Delhi see as “cyclical” ties with the US.

Energy Market Impact

A reduction in Russian crude imports by India would force refiners to look at higher-cost suppliers, potentially increasing India’s import bill by
$3–5 billion per year. This could ripple into global energy prices, especially in Asia’s refined products markets.
US, Middle Eastern, and West African suppliers are already being considered as alternative sources.

For now, refiners remain cautious but have not made a definitive pivot away from Russia. Market watchers expect shipment data for August to clarify whether a trend of rerouting is beginning.

Implications for Day Traders

1) Energy Volatility

• Watch crude benchmarks like WTI and Brent—tariff headlines can trigger sharp price swings intraday.
• Indian refiners (e.g., Reliance, ONGC) and global oil majors may see sympathy moves tied to shipping data and tariff announcements.

2) Trade & Tariff Plays

• Indian ADRs listed in the US (Infosys, Wipro, HDFC Bank) may face tariff-linked selling pressure if the levies take effect.
• Conversely, US exporters with exposure to India could see near-term weakness if retaliation is signaled.

3) Tactical Setups

• Mark the opening range on tariff-deadline days—watch for gap-and-go vs. gap-fill behavior in energy names and India ADRs.
• Track headline risk closely: diplomatic visits, cancellations, or statements from Modi/Trump can all swing tape dynamics.
• ETFs to monitor: EPI (WisdomTree India), XLE (Energy), IEMG (Emerging Markets).

4) Risk Management

• Expect above-average ATR in crude and India ADRs during tariff windows.
• Scale down size near tariff announcement hours; avoid chasing halts or headline bursts.

What’s Next

1. Confirmation of the timing and scope of US tariff implementation.
2. Potential Indian countermeasures range from WTO appeals to targeted retaliation.
3. Putin’s planned visit to India later this year could reinforce energy and defense ties with Moscow.

• 10.5% average weight loss in overweight/obese patients with Type 2 diabetes over ~72 weeks on orforglipron; GI side effects broadly in line with injectables.
• Earlier readout in non-diabetics showed ~12.4%, at the lower end of expectations—still clinically meaningful but shy of leading injectables.
• Novo Nordisk has already submitted an oral Wegovy (oral semaglutide) application; phase 3 signaled ~15% weight loss at top dose in obesity.
• Regulatory path: Lilly expects to file in 2025, with consensus pointing to a potential FDA decision in 2026.
• Why pills matter: Easier to manufacture and distribute than cold-chain injectables, expanding global access and potentially lowering COGS.

Context: The Oral GLP-1 Market Is About Scale

No next-generation oral obesity drug has yet received U.S. approval. If approved, pills could lift capacity constraints and broaden adoption far beyond what cold-chain injectables alone can reach.
Lilly’s latest diabetes-population win both validates efficacy in a harder-to-treat cohort and keeps pace with Novo’s timeline.

Efficacy Snapshot

• Orforglipron (LLY): ~10.5% in T2D; ~12.4% in non-diabetics; dose-dependent responder rates (≥10% and ≥15% loss) are meaningful.
• Oral semaglutide (NVO): ~15% in obesity at the highest dose in phase 3; under FDA review.

Safety: GI events remain the class effect; discontinuations at higher doses are a watch-item but generally manageable within GLP-1 norms.

Implications for Day Traders

1) Tape Dynamics & Sympathies

• Leaders: LLY and NVO tend to move inversely in response to incremental data. Expect headline-sensitive gap/drive behavior around filings, FDA milestones, and cross-trial comps.
• ETFs: XLV/IBB/XBI can register spillover flows on big GLP-1 news, offering smoother liquidity for scalps when single-name spreads widen.

2) Intraday Setups to Consider (education only)

• Premarket Plan: Mark the news-gap range and the first 5–15 minute opening range. Treat initial VWAP tests as decision points; failed reclaims can offer continuation entries.
• Relative Strength/Weakness: Compare LLY vs NVO vs sector ETF. A clean RS divergence into VWAP/ORH/ORL often gives tight-risk rotations.
• Option Structure: Elevated IV after headlines favors credit structures on mean-revert days; momentum days favor debit calls/puts aligned with trend. Watch IV crush post-press/analyst calls.
• Catalyst Ladder: Staggered data drops (top-line → detailed endpoints → filing acceptance → PDUFA date) can create multi-day trade sequences.

3) Risk Controls

• Respect ATR and news-day volatility. Avoid oversizing into halts or headline bursts.
• Use time-based stops around failed VWAP/OR retests; don’t let thesis drift as liquidity normalizes after the opening hour.

What to Watch Next

1. FDA Filing & Acceptance (LLY): Headlines confirm submission, followed by acceptance, often resetting positioning.
2. Label Scope & Dosing (NVO): Final oral Wegovy label—dose, titration, warnings—could impact reprice of comps and market share assumptions.
3. Manufacturing/Access: Any commentary on pill capacity and pricing will shape the medium-term narrative beyond topline efficacy.