Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.U.S. Tariffs On Small Packages
Global End of De Minimis: Understanding U.S. tariffs on small packages
The U.S. has begun charging duties on all inbound parcels—regardless of value—after suspending the long-standing de minimis waiver. Here’s what changed, why it happened, and how it affects consumers, merchants, and logistics networks.
What changed—and why it matters
Policymakers ended the $800 de minimis threshold that had allowed low-value items to enter duty-free. Postal operators and carriers must now transmit detailed electronic data on each parcel so customs can assess charges. For shoppers, this means checkout totals may include new duty, tax, and handling lines; for merchants, compliance and data quality become critical as U.S. tariffs on small packages apply to every incoming parcel.
Context: Authorities say small-parcel volumes soared over the past decade and that some shippers exploited the waiver for trans-shipment, undervaluation, and illicit goods. The policy aims to standardize treatment across origins and tighten enforcement.
Immediate ripple effects
- Postal slowdowns: Some national posts paused or restricted U.S. parcel services while updating duty-collection and data systems.
- Price convergence: Direct-from-factory bargains may narrow as duties, taxes, and brokerage reduce the gap versus domestic retail.
- Data discipline: Missing HS codes or vague descriptions can trigger delays, inspections, or penalties.
How duties are assessed during the transition
A temporary bridge allows certain senders to use flat fees while full origin-based rates come online. After the window closes, standard tariff schedules apply. Commercial express carriers already collect at purchase; postal channels will increasingly do the same as systems mature.
Who feels it most
- Cross-border marketplaces & fast-fashion apps: Margin pressure rises as logistics and landed costs increase.
- U.S. SMB importers: Micro-batch restocks may carry higher per-unit costs; consider consolidating shipments.
- Domestic retailers: A relative tailwind if imported ultra-cheap alternatives become less price-dominant.
For platforms shipping directly to U.S. consumers, U.S. tariffs on small packages compress unit economics and force better product-level data, from HS classification to declared value.
Action items for shoppers and sellers
- Check landed costs upfront. Duties, taxes, and brokerage fees may appear as separate lines at checkout.
- Prefer transparent channels. Couriers with advance clearance can reduce uncertainty during the changeover.
- Level up product data. Provide precise HS codes, origin, and materials to minimize holds.
- Consolidate when feasible. Fewer, larger consignments can lower per-item logistics overhead under U.S. tariffs on small packages.
Enforcement and compliance
Authorities will emphasize advanced electronic data, risk scoring, and spot checks. Expect closer scrutiny of repeat offenders in undervaluation, ambiguous descriptions, or origin masking. Clear documentation, responsive broker support, and accurate declarations help avoid delays as U.S. tariffs on small packages become the default regime.
Quick FAQ
Will everything cost more? Not everything, but many low-ticket imports will see added duty and fees, especially items that previously arrived duty-free under the old threshold.
Who collects the money? Depending on the channel, duties may be collected at checkout, by the carrier before delivery, or billed post-clearance. The accuracy of advanced data accelerates the process, particularly as U.S. tariffs on small packages are applied.
The bottom line
This policy is a structural reset for cross-border e-commerce. Prices on some imports will rise, postal networks may be choppy as systems update, and compliance will matter more than ever. For consumers and SMBs alike, understanding how U.S. tariffs on small packages are calculated—and building those costs and timelines into purchases and inventory plans—will help avoid surprises.
Call Walls and Put Walls
Call Walls & Put Walls: The Options Market’s Hidden Support and Resistance
Most traders mark their charts with pivots, VWAP, or volume-by-price levels. These tools help frame support and resistance. But another force doesn’t show up on a candlestick chart unless you’re looking at open interest: options positioning. Two key elements are call walls and put walls. They’re options-driven levels that often behave like invisible ceilings and floors for price.
Call Open Interest Forms Resistance
A call wall forms at a strike price with huge call open interest. Market makers who sold those calls are short options and hedge by buying shares. As the price approaches the strike, the call delta rises, and hedgers have typically accumulated most of the stock they need. The incremental buying flow tapers right at the wall, so upward momentum often stalls—the wall behaves like resistance.
Put Open Interest Forms Support
A put wall forms at a strike with substantial put open interest. Option sellers hedge by shorting shares as the price moves down. Near the wall, the need for additional shorting slows while bargain hunters and short-covering flows appear, so the wall often acts like support.
Why Do Walls Cause Reversals?
- Hedging demand dries up: Into a call wall, the steady hedger bid that helped lift price fades. Into a put wall, steady hedger supply fades.
- Positioning psychology: Longs take profits into call walls; shorts cover into put walls. These behaviors reinforce reversals.
- Liquidity pockets: Large open interest concentrates activity at specific strikes, amplifying these effects.
When Walls Break: Why Moves Can Accelerate
If strong order flow pushes through a wall, hedging flows can flip and accelerate the move:
- Above a call wall: Short-call market makers may need to buy more stock as calls go deeper in the money—fuel for a breakout.
- Below a put wall: Short-put market makers may need to short more stock as puts gain value—fuel for a breakdown.
How to Trade Call Walls and Put Walls
- Frame the range: Identify the dominant put wall below and call wall above the current price. Expect oscillation between them, especially into expirations.
- Plan reversals: Treat call walls as resistance and put walls as support. Look for confirmation with pivots, VWAP, and tape.
- Prepare for breakouts: If price pushes through a wall on convincing volume/tape, anticipate hedging-flip acceleration.
Quick Example: TSLA $350 Calls
If TSLA trades at $345 with heavy open interest at the $350 calls, $350 becomes a likely call wall. Price often hesitates there. A clean move and hold above $350, accompanied by high volume, can trigger hedging demand and a rapid leg higher.
FAQ
Do walls always hold?
No. They’re dynamic, not guarantees. Strong order flow, catalysts, or time-to-expiry effects can overwhelm them and produce trend acceleration.
How often should I update my walls?
Check daily for near-dated expirations and weekly for further-dated chains. Shifts in open interest can move the walls.
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy: What’s Behind the Troubles and Can It Recover?
Only months after emerging from restructuring, Spirit Airlines bankruptcy headlines are back. The airline filed for Chapter 11 protection again in August, causing shares of its parent company, Spirit Aviation Holdings (FLYY), to plummet to well under a dollar. The move highlights deep financial and operational issues that a quick turnaround last spring failed to resolve.
Why Spirit Is Struggling
The discount carrier faces multiple headwinds:
- High Costs: Operating expenses continue to exceed revenues. In the last reported quarter, costs were 118% of revenue, a recipe for persistent losses.
- Cash Burn: Spirit tapped its $275 million revolving credit line and still posted a net loss of $246 million in the June quarter.
- Competition: Rivals like Frontier and larger carriers offer low fares with better reputations, eroding Spirit’s core market share.
- Failed Merger: A proposed $3.8 billion merger with JetBlue was blocked, cutting off a critical lifeline and leaving Spirit exposed on its own.
Inside the Second Chapter 11 Filing
The company is using this fresh filing to execute what it calls a “comprehensive restructuring.” This includes renegotiating aircraft leases, scaling back underperforming routes, and realigning its fleet to focus on profitable hubs. Leadership has emphasized that flights will continue, loyalty points remain valid, and employees will be paid during the process.
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy and Prospects for Recovery
Bankruptcy court provides tools to reduce debt and restructure obligations, but recovery isn’t guaranteed. Success depends on execution, market competition, and consumer sentiment. Travelers have increasingly demanded comfort and reliability, challenging Spirit’s ultralow-cost model. Unless the airline can balance affordable fares with improved service, profitability may remain elusive.
Can Spirit Find Its Way Back?
The latest restructuring is a chance for Spirit to right-size operations, but with rivals circling and passengers skeptical, the path forward is narrow. If management can truly cut costs and reposition the brand, the carrier may survive. But given the scale of its debt and shifting consumer expectations, the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy story may be far from over.
Tesla European Sales
Tesla European Sales Slide 34%, Yet Shares Rise on AI Momentum
New data shows that Tesla’s European sales dropped sharply in July 2025, but investor enthusiasm surrounding AI and robo-taxi innovation continues to buoy the stock. Here’s what that means for markets — and day traders.
The numbers
Why investors aren’t panicking
Despite the slump in Tesla European sales, the stock traded as high as $353.55 on Thursday before easing to the $341 area. The resilience reflects investor focus on the company’s AI strategy rather than short-term vehicle volumes.
Tesla’s rollout of its robo-taxi in Austin, Texas, has captured the market’s attention. Since its October 2024 unveiling, the stock has surged 46%, adding roughly $350 billion to its market capitalization. Investors appear willing to overlook weak delivery data in favor of the long-term potential of AI and autonomy.
Implications for day traders
For traders, the divergence between fundamentals and stock performance matters. The fact that Tesla’s European sales cratered while its shares held firm suggests that newsflow is being discounted when it conflicts with the AI narrative. Here’s what to watch:
- Headline whipsaws: Expect intraday volatility when sales data hits, but watch how quickly price action reverts toward AI optimism.
- VWAP & Range Trades: Use pre-market highs and lows to frame intraday setups. Fades into VWAP often work when bad news meets resilient price action.
- AI Catalyst Trades: Robo-taxi and autonomy headlines have generated larger moves than those related to delivery numbers. Size trades accordingly.
- Relative Strength: Compare Tesla’s tape to peers like NIO, VW, and Mercedes EV units — relative weakness abroad could set up pairs trades.
What comes next
An updated Model Y and a lower-cost variant, planned for later in 2025, could help stabilize volumes. Still, until deliveries improve, Tesla’s European sales will remain a drag on fundamentals. Traders should consider whether price rallies are sustainable or if AI-driven sentiment will eventually encounter resistance.
Bottom line
The sharp decline in Tesla European sales contrasts with the stock’s strength, underscoring that investors are trading the AI story, not the delivery story. For day traders, this means staying nimble: fade overreactions, respect VWAP levels, and let the order flow tell you when the AI narrative overpowers the fundamentals.
U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2
GDP Surprise: Q2 Growth Revised Up, Inflation Steady — A Trader’s Read
The Commerce Department’s second estimate shows stronger-than-first-reported momentum in Q2 as consumers kept spending and net trade dynamics flattered the headline. Below: what changed, why it matters, and how to trade it today.
At a glance
Context: H1 growth averaged ~2.1% annualized; Q1 contracted 0.5% amid the import-rush distortion. Tariff dynamics and front-loading continue to ripple through the trade components.
Lead story
In its second estimate for Q2, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2 as resilient consumers offset tariff-related crosscurrents. The upward revision reflects firmer personal consumption, stronger “final sales to private domestic purchasers,” and a sizable contribution from net exports after businesses stockpiled ahead of April tariff milestones.
Why “U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2” matters
- Growth beat + anchored inflation = policy optionality. With core PCE at 2.5% and headline at 2.0%, the mix argues for a “wait-and-see” Fed rather than an urgent pivot, keeping rates sensitive sectors two-way tradable.
- Domestic demand held up. The jump in final sales to private domestic purchasers suggests underlying U.S. demand remains intact, a positive tell for consumer-facing names on strong tape.
- Trade noise is real. The import collapse and export dip mechanically boosted the headline; traders should fade simplistic takes that ignore the stockpiling unwind.
Key drivers under the hood
- Consumers: Real outlays beat the first print (+1.6%), led by services; discretionary remains rotational.
- Businesses: Inventory timing and tariff planning skewed trade flows; watch for reversal effects in coming prints.
- Prices: Core PCE stuck at 2.5% keeps “higher for a bit longer” plausible, but not a headwind if yields drift lower on growth quality.
Market context
Equities tend to reward “Goldilocks-ish” combinations of steady growth and anchored inflation, but leadership rotates. Expect two-sided action as positioning adjusts to the fact that the U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q2 while trade components remain noisy.
Implications for Day Traders: A Playbook
Because the U.S. economy expanded by 3.3% in Q2, algorithms will focus on revisions, inflation mix, and rate-path implications. Here’s how to translate the macro into intraday tactics:
- Opening Sequence (9:30–10:10 ET): Treat the first 40 minutes as discovery. Map the pre-market high/low on SPY and QQQ and frame trades versus VWAP. Use your volatility bands to fade extensions that stall on declining delta/volume. “Gap-and-go” becomes higher probability if yields tick down while cyclicals bid.
- Consumer Rotation: On strong tape, look for relative strength in discretionary/experiential names (retail, travel, payments). Pair with a short in an import-heavy laggard if the tariffs headline-check. Trade the spread when tick/ADD diverge.
- Tariff Differential Pairs: Industrials/ag exporters can capture flows when trade mechanically boosts GDP; import-dependent apparel/retail may underperform due to margin fears. Build a quick pairs grid and trade mean-reversions around VWAP.
- Rates & USD Sensitivity: If the curve bull-flattens on “good growth + tame inflation,” mega-cap tech often outperforms. If yields back up, shift to financials/energy. Watch 2-yr yield inflections at whole/half handles as triggers.
- Net-Export Noise ≠ Trend: Expect intraday whips on headlines interpreting the trade boost as organic strength. Keep size modest into macro-headline bursts; re-add only after the 5-minute bars reclaim VWAP with rising cumulative volume.
- Options Flow (ODTE): Use SPX/QQQ gamma levels for magnets and stalls. If call gamma builds above the opening range, favor pullback buys to the 5-/9-EMA cluster. If put gamma dominates, sell bounces into a declining VWAP.
- Around-the-Horn Setups: When a strong print gaps leaders above your levels, stalk the 2SD “Baltimore Chop” for first-hour mean-revert entries; for trend days, run Fastball continuations once the opening range breaks on expanding volume.
- Risk Protocol: Keep R small during the first pullback; widen only after the session structure has declared itself (trend vs. range). Use time-based stops when news flow, not order flow, is driving prices.
What to watch next
- Revisions & inventories: Any unwind of the stockpiling effect could flip the trade contribution; be ready for narrative shifts.
- Inflation cadence: With core PCE at 2.5% and headline at 2.0%, incremental disinflation would be a tailwind for duration-sensitive risk.
- Nowcast drift: If the Q3 nowcast holds near ~2.2%, expect rotational leadership rather than a one-way “risk on/off.”
Bottom line
Data highlights cited: GDP 3.3% (second estimate), Consumer Spending +1.6%, Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers +1.9%, Imports −29.8%, Exports −1.3%, Net exports ≈ +5 pp contribution, Core PCE 2.5%, Headline PCE 2.0%, Atlanta Fed GDPNow ≈ 2.2% for Q3.