Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Lyft Q2 Earnings Report Misses
Lyft Q2 Earnings Report Misses Raises Growth Concerns
Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Revenue Miss
Lyft reported Q2 revenue of $1.59 billion, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations of $1.61 billion. However, it delivered a surprise profit of $0.10 per share, well above analyst estimates of just $0.04.
While the EPS beat demonstrates operational efficiency—likely the result of improved cost controls or pricing discipline—it wasn’t enough to offset investor disappointment with topline figures. Total rides came in at 234.8 million, short of the 235.7 million analysts were expecting, and gross bookings totaled $4.49 billion, missing the $4.50 billion consensus.
The market reaction was swift: Lyft shares dropped as much as 10% in after-hours trading, briefly touching $12.60 before recovering slightly to end down 7%.
Muted Guidance and Competitive Pressures
Looking ahead to Q3, Lyft anticipates gross bookings of $4.65 billion to $4.80 billion, representing 13% to 17% year-over-year growth. While this would mark a solid rebound, some analysts see the projected mid-teens rides growth as ambitious amid macroeconomic headwinds and rising competition.
The tepid response also reflects investor sentiment that Lyft is struggling to compete with Uber, which benefits from global diversification and additional revenue from its Uber Eats platform. Uber’s own Q2 results earlier this week also included an earnings beat—yet the stock still dipped, signaling that Wall Street is demanding more than just small wins.
Autonomous Vehicle Race: Still Playing Catch-Up
Earlier this week, Lyft announced a partnership with Baidu to roll out autonomous vehicles in Europe. The move marks a long-awaited step toward innovation but highlights how far Lyft still trails rivals like Uber, which already boasts partnerships with Waymo, Aurora, and Lucid.
While the Baidu collaboration offers potential, investors appear cautious, waiting for concrete results and real-world deployment milestones in the autonomous ride-hailing space.
Structural Limitations and Market Reach
Lyft’s geographic limitations are also a concern. The company remains largely confined to the U.S. and Canada, making it more vulnerable to regional risks. By contrast, Uber operates in over 70 countries and derives significant income from diversified business units, giving it a competitive edge in terms of scale and risk distribution.
Although Lyft has expanded into bike-sharing and scooter rentals, those revenue streams remain small and often fail to achieve profitability, especially in cities with high operational costs and regulatory burdens.
What Investors Want to See Next
- Consistent revenue growth that meets or beats analyst projections
- Faster global expansion and broader market penetration
- Tangible results from autonomous vehicle partnerships
- New, scalable revenue streams beyond ride-hailing
To regain Wall Street’s confidence, Lyft must not only improve its topline metrics but also demonstrate long-term strategic viability in a market dominated by rapidly evolving technology and fierce competition.
Conclusion
The Lyft Q2 earnings report reveals that profitability alone isn’t enough to satisfy investors in the ride-hailing space. With revenue and rider metrics falling just shy of expectations, and competition from Uber intensifying, Lyft faces a critical inflection point. The next few quarters may define whether the company can differentiate and grow—or continue to fall short in a consolidating industry.
Trump Hits India With 50% Tariff
Trump Hits India With 50% Tariff Over Russian Oil Ties: What Traders Should Watch Now
“Articles of India imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent,” the order reads.
The new tariffs will go into effect in 21 days, while a previously announced 25% tariff is set to begin Thursday.
India Responds: “Unjustified and Unreasonable”
India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the tariffs “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.”
The ministry noted:
“It is extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.”
Officials also highlighted the irony of the U.S. and European countries continuing commerce with Russia while criticizing India, whose energy imports are driven by national security needs.
Market Implications: Risk-On or Risk-Off?
🛢️ Oil and Energy Sector Volatility
Tariffs punishing Russian oil importers may tighten global supply, pushing up Brent crude, WTI, and energy ETFs like XLE and VDE.
💼 Emerging Market Pressure
India-focused ETFs and equities could see volatility. Watch for movement in INDA, INFY, and currency pairs like INR/USD.
🧾 U.S. Inflation Watch
Higher tariffs on Indian imports could impact U.S. consumer goods pricing, particularly pharmaceuticals, apparel, and auto components.
📉 Sentiment Shift in Global Trade
Trump’s executive order also instructs his team to review whether other nations are importing Russian oil, suggesting broader sanctions could follow.
Sector Watch: Who’s Vulnerable?
- U.S. importers from India: Generic drug makers, apparel retailers, and tech services firms may face margin pressure.
- Indian exporters: Watch for potential pullbacks in Infosys (INFY), Wipro (WIT), and Sun Pharma.
- Competing emerging markets: Countries like Vietnam and Indonesia may benefit as alternatives to India.
Final Thought: Sanctions as a Trade Weapon
President Trump’s move underscores a new era of U.S. economic statecraft—using trade policy to enforce geopolitical goals. This is not merely a trade dispute, but a test of loyalty in the global energy and security landscape.
TraderInsight Pro Tip: Set alerts for press releases from the USTR and White House. These announcements are increasingly triggering real-time market shifts. Consider volatility trades on INDA, oil futures, and tariff-sensitive U.S. equities.
Rivian Warns of Bigger Losses
Rivian Warns of Bigger Losses as EV Headwinds Mount: What Traders Need to Know
Deeper Losses Ahead
Rivian now expects a full-year adjusted loss between $2.0 billion and $2.25 billion, compared to its May guidance of $1.7–$1.9 billion. The company cited:
- Global supply chain pressures
- Tariff threats
- EV tax credit phase-outs
- Regulatory credit policy shifts
- Waning consumer demand in the U.S. EV market
“The global economic landscape and the U.S. regulatory environment present significant uncertainty… These factors have impacted and are expected to continue to impact our global supply chain, material costs and access, profitability and capital expenditures.” — Rivian shareholder letter
The EV Sector’s New Reality
1. Policy Uncertainty
The U.S. government is preparing to end certain EV tax credits after September 30, which could diminish buyer incentives and compress near-term demand.
2. Demand Normalization
The EV market is cooling, with early adopters already onboard and new buyers facing higher financing costs and limited charging infrastructure.
3. Fierce Competition
Rivian competes with legacy automakers scaling EV production (e.g., Ford, GM) and Tesla, which continues to adjust pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese EV giants like BYD are expanding aggressively.
What Traders Should Watch
1. Price Action Signals
Rivian stock is now approaching support near $16–$17. A break below could trigger a technical selloff.
2. Intraday Setup
- Opening Range Breakdown (ORB) setups below premarket lows
- VWAP fade strategies if the stock fails to reclaim VWAP
- Option flow for institutional positioning clues
3. Sentiment Shifts in Peers
Negative sentiment in RIVN could bleed into other EV names like Lucid (LCID), Fisker (FSR), and even Tesla (TSLA).
Still on Track: R2 Launch Holds Steady
Despite profit concerns, Rivian is progressing with its R2 mid-size SUV, targeting a launch in the first half of 2026. Pilot production has begun, and its Illinois factory expansion is nearly complete.
Final Thought: Rivian’s Growing Pains Are Becoming Costly
Rivian’s Q2 report shows a company still in its early growth stage—but now facing real macroeconomic and competitive pressures. Long-term potential exists, but short-term traders should be ready for heightened volatility.
TraderInsight Pro Tip: Track Rivian’s performance relative to TSLA and the Global X Autonomous & EV ETF (DRIV). Watch for new policy developments on EV tax credits and tariff enforcement—these will drive the next major move.
Will the Economy Show Its True Colors by September
Powell Interest Rate Strategy Explained for Investors
As the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady once again this July, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took to the podium with a now-familiar tone: cautious, data-dependent, and firmly noncommittal. Behind the curtain of central bank decorum lies a high-stakes gamble—that the economy will finally reveal its true trajectory in the next two months.
In a summer marked by crosscurrents from tariffs, artificial intelligence investment booms, and consumer cooling, Powell’s interest rate strategy hinges on one key idea: time will tell. Whether the U.S. is headed for a soft landing or a downturn masked by resilient headline data remains uncertain—but Powell is betting that clarity will arrive by September.
🧭 Two Economic Worlds, One Fed Decision
At the heart of Powell’s wait-and-see approach is a fork in the economic road:
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In one world, inflation remains sticky while the labor market is weakening beneath the surface. Wage growth has flattened, labor participation is eroding, and spending by lower-income consumers is declining.
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In the other, AI investment and surging household wealth—fueled by high stock and home prices—keep the economy humming, offsetting trade disruptions and elevated rates.
Powell’s challenge is that both stories are plausible—and current data can support either narrative.
📊 Signs of Cooling Beneath the Surface
On the surface, unemployment at 4.1% looks healthy. But economists like Neil Dutta (Renaissance Macro) warn that it may be masking deeper labor market erosion:
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Only about half of U.S. industries are adding jobs—a historically weak reading.
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Wage stagnation is more widespread than the average figures suggest.
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Consumer discretionary spending (on travel, dining, etc.) is declining, especially among lower-income households.
Bank of America Institute data points to three straight months of declining service-sector spending, not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. With housing activity slowing and mortgage rates above 6.5%, cracks are forming that could ripple into employment.
📈 But the Top-Line Strength Is Hard to Ignore
Yet another set of data tells a different story. Despite tighter credit and trade tension:
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AI infrastructure spending continues to boom, stimulating corporate investment.
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Household wealth is at record highs, giving consumers—especially upper-income ones—more spending power.
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The stock market is surging, and private credit markets are thriving.
“People underestimate how much richer U.S. households have become,” says Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays. That wealth could act as a cushion against economic drag from tariffs or Fed policy.
🎯 September: The Fed’s Inflection Point
Powell’s interest rate strategy is to hold tight until the July and August inflation reports land—giving the Fed time to assess the effects of new tariffs and lingering demand strength.
But the risks of this patience are twofold:
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Wait too long, and the Fed could deepen a potential labor market downturn.
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Cut too early, and it might ignite a second inflation wave, especially if consumer demand rebounds on the back of political stimulus (tax cuts, rebates, etc.).
As Fed Governor Christopher Waller—who dissented in favor of a cut—put it, the risks of hidden economic weakness are mounting. Yet others like Michael Gapen (Morgan Stanley) argue the Fed needs to see inflation clearly slowing before acting.
🛑 Tariffs: Temporary Shock or Ticking Time Bomb?
Tariffs add yet another layer of uncertainty. Many economists believe the price shocks will be transitory—but what does “temporary” mean in monetary policy?
Claudio Irigoyen (Bank of America) warns: “Temporary means a year or two—long enough to matter.” The Fed’s failure to react swiftly to COVID-era inflation still looms large, and Powell doesn’t want to repeat that mistake.
As he said plainly: “We’re just going to have to watch and learn.”
🧠 Final Takeaway: Powell Is Playing for Time—But the Clock Is Ticking
Jerome Powell isn’t committing to rate cuts, nor is he closing the door. Instead, he’s choosing strategic ambiguity, betting that more time and more data will break the economic stalemate.
If AI and wealth continue to buoy spending, rate cuts could be postponed. But if labor markets falter and consumer retrenchment accelerates, the Fed may be forced to act quickly.
Either way, September is shaping up to be the real policy crossroads. Until then, Powell’s gamble is to wait, watch, and hope the fog clears—before either inflation or recession forces his hand.