Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.OpenAI’s $1 Trillion in Chip Deals is Rewriting the Rules of Tech Finance
OpenAI’s $1 Trillion AI Power Grab — and What It Means for NVDA, AMD, and the Market
OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Bet on the Future of Intelligence
The deals span AMD, Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave, securing over 20 gigawatts of AI computing capacity—equivalent to approximately twenty nuclear power plants.
Each gigawatt of capacity costs about $50 billion to deploy. Together, these projects will reshape global tech infrastructure—and possibly the next phase of the AI market cycle.
Industry analysts are calling it the most aggressive financing strategy in Silicon Valley history.
“This is the apex of the ‘build first, monetize later’ playbook,” said Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson. “OpenAI could lose $10 billion this year alone.”
The Circular Financing Loop
- Nvidia is investing $100 billion into OpenAI—money the start-up will then use to buy Nvidia’s GPUs.
- AMD structured its $300 billion partnership with a twist: OpenAI receives warrants to buy up to 10% of AMD’s stock for $0.01 per share, vesting as milestones are met.
- Oracle and CoreWeave are providing additional cloud infrastructure valued at more than $320 billion combined.
It’s a high-stakes feedback loop—each partner benefits immediately from higher demand and stock revaluation.
When the AMD deal was announced, AMD shares jumped 24%, adding $63 billion in market value. Nvidia’s OpenAI announcement in September added $160 billion to its cap overnight.
The Bubble Question
The circular nature of these deals is raising alarms across Wall Street. Equity raises, supplier incentives, and tens of billions in new debt are financing OpenAI’s massive commitments.
Moody’s recently warned that Oracle’s data center business is overly exposed to OpenAI’s credit risk.
The parallels to the dot-com infrastructure boom are hard to ignore—spending outpacing demand, suppliers dependent on a single visionary customer, and valuations assuming exponential growth in usage.
Market Impact and Trading Implications
For Day Traders
- AMD (ticker: AMD) — After Monday’s 24% surge, watch for consolidation above $215. Intraday resistance sits near $226; pullbacks to $210 could offer high-probability long entries.
- NVDA — Despite heavy news flow, Nvidia has lagged this week. Look for breakout confirmation above $191 for a move higher.
- ORCL — Volatility expansion likely as OpenAI debt and data-center risk make headlines. Scalps in trading ranges between $284–$290 offer tight risk setups.
For Swing Traders
- Long bias: Semiconductor and infrastructure names—AMD, NVDA, AVGO, SMCI. All benefit from OpenAI’s “arms race” buildout over the next year.
- Short bias: Overextended cloud providers with concentration risk—ORCL and smaller hyperscalers like CoreWeave debt plays—if AI credit stress surfaces.
- Macro hedge: Long VIX calls or short QQQ if AI exuberance stalls—OpenAI’s debt expansion could magnify tech volatility.
Bottom Line
OpenAI’s trillion-dollar infrastructure push is the boldest bet in modern tech history—part revolution, part leverage cycle.
For traders, the setup is clear: **volatility will cluster around the chipmakers**.
Strong hands will ride the next AI wave; weak hands will get shaken out when the financing math catches up.
Whether this ends as the foundation of a new computing era—or as Silicon Valley’s most expensive margin call—depends on one thing: **how fast real AI profits arrive**.
ICE Polymarket Prediction Market
ICE’s $2 Billion Bet on Polymarket Could Bring Prediction Markets Into the Mainstream
Focus keyphrase: ICE Polymarket prediction market
Wall Street Meets the Betting Market
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, announced it will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket — the offshore, blockchain-based prediction market once banned in the U.S.
The deal gives Polymarket a pre-money valuation of $8 billion and positions ICE as a distributor of its “event-driven data” while collaborating on future tokenization initiatives.
For ICE, this is a calculated move into decentralized finance, at a moment when the line between traditional exchanges and blockchain infrastructure is blurring fast.
Why ICE Wants In
- Prediction markets are generating billions in global trading volume — often in crypto-denominated bets on political or economic events.
- ICE gains a data stream that reflects real-time crowd probabilities on inflation, elections, and rate moves — a potential goldmine for institutional analytics.
- Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX and QC Clearing in Florida earlier this year gives it a path to operate legally in the U.S., pending regulatory sign-off.
Founder Shayne Coplan called the deal “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” and ICE’s credibility could be what finally legitimizes the space.
Regulatory Tailwinds — and Trump Connections
The Trump administration has been far more receptive to prediction-based financial products than its predecessor.
In the past year, Kalshi and PredictIt both won court victories allowing users to trade event contracts.
Polymarket also added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board in August, when his fund 1789 Capital made a strategic investment.
His political influence, combined with ICE’s regulatory weight, could accelerate legalization of prediction products under CFTC oversight.
Trading Implications
For Day Traders
- ICE (NYSE: ICE) — Watch for a breakout above $164 to confirm institutional momentum. Short-term support $156. High-volume entry zones likely on any dip tied to crypto volatility.
- COIN (Coinbase) — Correlated sympathy trade. If prediction markets gain legitimacy, crypto brokerage activity could surge. Intraday target $400.77.
- BTC / ETH Futures — Expect volatility spikes around regulatory headlines or tokenization announcements. Look for momentum setups near prior-day highs.
For Swing Traders
- Long bias: ICE and COIN as mainstream adoption plays; also watch CME for a late-cycle catch-up bid.
- Speculative swing: Smaller crypto infrastructure names and data-feed providers (e.g., SRAD, TRMR) may ride the wave if ICE’s model proves scalable.
- Macro hedge: Short BTC volatility into regulatory uncertainty if markets price excessive optimism in tokenization timelines.
Bottom Line
The ICE × Polymarket deal could do for prediction markets what Coinbase’s IPO did for crypto: pull a fringe product into the financial mainstream.
If regulators follow ICE’s lead, expect new tradeable instruments built on event probabilities — potentially blending derivatives, data, and decentralized finance into one fast-moving market.
For active traders, this means opportunity — and volatility. Prediction markets might soon predict more than just elections —they could forecast the next trading trend.
NNE Hard To Borrow – Look Out Below
What the Hard-to-Borrow Warning on NNE Really Meant
By Adrian Manz • TraderInsight
When a stock suddenly appears on the hard-to-borrow list, veteran traders pay attention. That change in market microstructure often precedes volatility, signaling that borrowing shares for short sale has become both difficult and expensive. In the case of Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE), the combination of restricted borrow availability, elevated short interest, and a surprise equity offering announcement created the perfect storm. Understanding the factors that drove the NNE stock sell-off provides a valuable case study in market mechanics and trader psychology.
A Red Flag in the Borrow Market
A “hard-to-borrow” designation isn’t a casual status—it’s a real-time indicator of stress in the securities lending market. When brokers place a stock on that list, it means inventory is scarce and the cost to borrow has skyrocketed. Short sellers must pay steep daily borrow fees, sometimes at double-digit annualized rates.
This limited supply of lendable shares in NNE increased the fragility of the price structure. With so few shares available for hedging or shorting, volatility becomes magnified. For seasoned traders, this is one of the earliest NNE stock sell-off factors worth noting—it signals that liquidity conditions are tightening and that a small catalyst could move price disproportionately.
The Dilution Domino
The catalyst arrived in the form of a large private placement of common stock, announced shortly after the hard-to-borrow shift. The deal being oversubscribed might sound bullish at first glance. However, the market immediately priced a different concern: dilution.
Issuing millions of new shares “priced at the market” effectively expands the supply of stock without adding immediate, tangible value. When a smaller-cap company raises that much capital at market price, investors often hear, “We need funding now,” and many will sell first and analyze later. Dilution forces existing shareholders to recalculate the value of their holdings and often triggers mechanical selling from models that penalize share-count expansion.
High Short Interest and Tight Float
Before the announcement, NNE already had substantial short interest. Combine that with the sudden scarcity of lendable shares, and the market was primed for violent repricing. When a stock’s float is small, the interplay between longs, shorts, and borrow supply becomes a zero-sum tug-of-war.
New equity issuance disrupts the balance, flooding the market with new supply while short sellers reassess their exposure. This combination—high short interest, limited borrow, and new issuance—forms a trifecta of NNE stock sell-off factors that tends to precede sharp corrections.
Sentiment and Speculation Collide
NNE sits in an industry that attracts speculative enthusiasm. Valuations in such forward-looking sectors are driven by narrative and potential more than current cash flow, making them especially sensitive to financing announcements. A significant rise can shift the story from expansion to runway, and in thin markets with expensive borrowing rates, that narrative turn often cues fast downside.
How the Sell-Off Unfolded
- Long holders began selling to avoid dilution.
- Short sellers, emboldened by the fundamental trigger, pressed their positions where borrowing was allowed.
- Liquidity evaporated as the limited borrowing supply and a shallow bid magnified each downtick.
- Momentum and intraday traders accelerated the move as technical levels failed in sequence.
The Predictive Takeaway
The NNE stock sell-off factors didn’t appear out of nowhere. The hard-to-borrow warning was a leading signal. Elevated borrowing fees and high short interest suggested structural fragility. The secondary offering was the catalyst that exploited that fragility.
For traders, the lesson is clear: when borrowing conditions tighten on a momentum name, stay alert. The next capital raise or headline risk can become the domino that triggers a swift repricing. These are the conditions where “hope trades” get punished—and disciplined traders preserve capital.
Final Thoughts
The case of Nano Nuclear Energy reminds us that price movement isn’t always about headlines—it’s often about how the market is positioned before the news. By tracking the borrow market, short interest, and float dynamics, we can usually see the storm clouds forming long before the first drop of rain.
In hindsight, the NNE stock sell-off factors were there for all to see. The challenge—and the opportunity—is learning to read them in real time.
Trump Administration Takes 10% Stake in Trilogy Metals
Trump Administration Takes 10% Stake in Trilogy Metals, Approves Alaska Ambler Road
A New Era for U.S. Resource Security
The move reverses the Biden administration’s earlier block on the project, which will open vast copper and cobalt reserves to U.S. development.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the decision ensures “critical mineral supplies that will benefit the American people,” citing copper’s role in defense, clean energy, and technology.
The Ambler Road, long opposed by environmental groups, will connect remote Arctic deposits to U.S. infrastructure, giving Washington new leverage in the race to secure non-Chinese supplies of copper, gallium, and germanium.
Market Impact: Critical Metals Supercycle Reloaded
The announcement triggered an immediate surge across mining equities:
- Trilogy Metals (TMQ) soared more than 200% Tuesday, trading at its highest levels since 2021.
- Lithium Americas (LAC) — already up 184% in the past month — extended gains as traders speculated on additional federal stakes.
- MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth both advanced sharply on expectations that similar government partnerships could follow.
The pattern is clear: Washington’s new approach blends industrial policy with equity investment. The federal government now directly owns stakes in companies spanning the critical-minerals chain — from lithium extraction to rare earth magnets — marking a profound shift in U.S. resource strategy.
Day-Trading Setups
- TMQ — Momentum trade of the week. Watch for intraday consolidations above $6.80 with breakout potential toward $8.00. Use $5.70 as the downside stop zone.
- LAC — Extended but tradable. Look for dip-buy setups near $7.00 with scalp targets into $7.75.
- MP — Watch pre-market volume and VWAP reactions; breakout above $74.50 could trigger squeeze toward $77.00.
Swing-Trading and Sector Themes
- Long bias: TMQ, LAC, MP, and rare-earth juniors tied to U.S. defense procurement. Expect multi-week trend continuation if copper and lithium spot prices firm.
- Rotation trade: Trim into parabolic strength in TMQ; recycle gains into undervalued critical-mineral names with federal-funding exposure.
- ETF watch: PICK (iShares Global Metals & Mining) and LIT (Global X Lithium ETF) could see short-term inflows.
- Macro hedge: A Copper futures support break below would suggest profit-taking after an overextended policy rally.
Bottom Line
The Trilogy-Ambler Road announcement marks one of the Trump administration’s most aggressive steps yet to build domestic control over critical minerals.
If similar investments expand to nickel, lithium, and rare earth chains, the U.S. could trigger a second-wave “resource reindustrialization” trade. This theme began with semiconductors and is now spreading to energy metals.
For traders, the rotation into strategic metals is apparent. TMQ is today’s breakout; MP and LAC are the continuation plays.
Momentum, volume, and policy — the catalysts are all in place.
Tricolor Bankruptcy
U.S. Banks Missed the Tricolor Warning Signs. Now Traders Are Watching the Fallout.
What Happened
The implosion caught lenders and investors off guard, leaving prominent names such as **Fifth Third**, **JPMorgan**, **Barclays**, **Pimco**, and **BlackRock** vulnerable to potential losses.
- Fifth Third estimates up to $200 million in losses tied to alleged fraud at a commercial borrower now identified as Tricolor.
- S&P suspended ratings on Tricolor’s $2 billion in asset-backed securities.
- The company’s collapse wiped out financing lines and triggered internal reviews at several major banks.
How Banks Missed It
Tricolor’s bonds had received AA ratings as recently as June — just three months before the failure.
The company had Treasury certification as a Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI), a status that helped attract ESG-focused investors like BlackRock.
Regulators had cited Tricolor for numerous compliance issues over the years, including title-transfer violations and improper licensing practices, but none of that halted its access to Wall Street funding.
Trading Implications
The **Tricolor bankruptcy** is the latest stress signal in the subprime auto-loan space — and it lands at a sensitive time for financials already under pressure from slowing consumer credit and rising delinquency rates.
Day-Trading Focus:
- Regional banks: Watch intraday weakness in FITB, CFG, and KEY. News-driven volatility may create short-side scalps below the 5-min VWAP.
- Credit ETFs: KRE (regional bank ETF) and XLF could show relative weakness if additional exposure headlines surface.
- Reversal setups: Fade overextensions near morning lows if volume declines and the broader market stabilizes — Tricolor’s losses are significant but not systemic yet.
For traders, this event brings tactical volatility across regional banks and credit ETFs.
Expect headline-driven opportunities and use the early week to gauge follow-through in KRE, FITB, and JPM.
AMD OpenAI Partnership
AMD OpenAI Partnership: What the Deal Means for AMD Stock
Shares of **AMD** ripped on Monday after the company announced a long-term deal to supply OpenAI with GPUs across a 6-gigawatt deployment.
The **AMD OpenAI partnership** could reshape AMD’s AI credentials — and its stock setup is now even more intriguing for traders.
Deal highlights
- OpenAI plans to use AMD Instinct GPUs over time: 6 GW total, with first 1 GW arriving in H2 2026.
- OpenAI receives a warrant to buy up to 160 million AMD shares at **$0.01** apiece — ~10% of AMD’s float — vesting upon milestones, expiring Oct 2030.
- AMD expects this partnership to drive “tens of billions” in incremental annual revenue and $100B+ in total over the life of the deal.
- The agreement is **nonexclusive** — AMD can still sell to other AI customers.
Why it’s important
This is AMD staking a serious claim in AI infrastructure. Up to now, **Nvidia** has dominated headlines with its OpenAI and AI investments. The AMD deal signals the next wave of GPU competition.
The warrant structure is fascinating — if OpenAI exercises, it could dilute shares, but likely only after major value creation. It aligns their incentives closely.
Technical setup & price action
AMD surged ~24% to $203.71 on the news, nearing its all-time intraday high of $227.30 (set March 2024).
With that momentum in play, key levels to watch are $190–195 as near support, and the $220–230 range as resistance.
A breakout above that zone — confirmed by volume — opens up further upside into $250+ territory.
Trading setups & implications
- Gap & go: At open, if AMD gaps above $205 and holds, ride the momentum toward $220 area.
- Pullback entries: If it cools off, look for support at $190–195 as a possible re-entry zone.
- Swing bias: As long as AMD holds above $180 in daily closes, lean bullish targeting $250+ over 4–8 weeks.
- Pairs trade: Long AMD vs. short NVDA if AMD news dominates sentiment; or short AMD on failed breakouts above major resistance without follow-through.
Trading grid: Bull / Base / Bear
| Scenario | Trigger / Conditions | Price Outlook | Trade Angles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | Strong AI adoption, sustained GPU demand, AMD hits deployment milestones, warrant exercised late. | AMD breaks past $230 → targets $250–280. | Ride momentum. Hold through pullbacks. Add on breakthrough volume. Consider long AI sector ETF exposure. |
| Base | Growing AI demand but semiconductor cyclicality and competition pressures; AMD executes but with volatility. | Sideways to modest uptrend in $180–230 range. | Trade the range. Buy support, short resistance. Use defined stops. Avoid over-leveraging. |
| Bear | Broader semiconductor weakness, margin compression, execution hiccups, dilution concerns from warrants. | Break below $170 → slide toward $140–160 range. | Short weak bounces. Hedge exposure with semiconductors or short ALPHAs (AI speculative names). Tight risk control. |
Bottom line
The **AMD OpenAI partnership** is a major stride in AMD’s AI infrastructure ambitions. For traders, it opens up headline-driven volatility, technical breakout potential, and tactical range plays.
Stay nimble — the grid above gives a clear map for bullish, base, and bearish scenarios depending on how the execution unfolds.