Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Government Shutdown Impact on US Stock Market
Government Shutdown Impact on US Stock Market: What Traders Should Expect
The Looming Government Shutdown and Market Reactions
The government shutdown impact on US stock market is a pressing concern for investors as Congress faces another budget impasse. With many lawmakers having already adjourned and gone home, the likelihood of a resolution before the deadline is diminishing. If no agreement is reached by Friday, the federal government will shut down, potentially causing market volatility and economic disruptions.
How a Government Shutdown Affects the Stock Market
Historical Market Performance During Past Shutdowns
Looking at past shutdowns, the US stock market has shown mixed reactions. In the most recent shutdown, which lasted 35 days from December 2018 to January 2019, the S&P 500 initially dropped amid uncertainty but recovered as negotiations advanced. However, prolonged shutdowns can create systemic risks, leading to heightened volatility.
For a deeper analysis, check out data from CNBC on market reactions to the 2018-2019 shutdown.
Investor Sentiment and Market Volatility
The government shutdown impact on US stock market is closely tied to investor confidence. When lawmakers fail to reach a budget agreement, uncertainty spikes, increasing market fluctuations, and defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and gold often see inflows as traders hedge against risk.
Sector-Specific Risks
Financial and Banking Sector
Banks and financial institutions could experience pressure due to liquidity concerns and potential delays in federal payments. Companies like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) might see short-term price swings as investors assess the economic fallout. The Federal Reserve also plays a role in maintaining stability during economic uncertainty.
Government Contractors and Defense Stocks
Halted government operations could affect firms heavily reliant on federal contracts, such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). A prolonged shutdown could delay payments and contracts, causing downward pressure on stock prices. Read more on how defense stocks react to budget issues at Defense News.
Consumer Spending and Retail Sector
If federal workers go unpaid, consumer spending may decline, impacting retail stocks such as Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Reduced spending power can have a ripple effect across multiple industries, amplifying economic concerns. Reports from The Wall Street Journal provide deeper insights into consumer trends during past shutdowns.
What Traders Should Watch for This Week
Congressional Developments
Since many members of Congress have already adjourned, the ability to pass a last-minute resolution is significantly weakened. Traders should monitor headlines for signs of negotiation breakthroughs or continued political gridlock. Follow updates from Reuters for the latest congressional actions.
Federal Reserve and Market Reactions
The Federal Reserve may adjust its stance if economic data weakens due to a shutdown. Rate-sensitive stocks and sectors, particularly real estate and technology, could be impacted. Keep up with monetary policy shifts at Bloomberg.
Safe-Haven Investments
During past shutdowns, gold and US Treasuries have seen increased demand. Investors looking for stability might rotate into defensive assets until budgetary clarity returns. For more on defensive trading, see market trends at MarketWatch.
Conclusion: Preparing for Potential Market Turbulence
The government shutdown impact on US stock market remains uncertain, but traders should brace for volatility. By keeping a close eye on political developments and sector-specific risks, investors can make informed decisions to navigate potential disruptions.
Retaliatory Tariffs Impact on US Stock Market
Retaliatory Tariffs Impact on US Stock Market: What Traders Need to Know
Understanding Retaliatory Tariffs and Their Market Influence
The impact of retaliatory tariffs on the US stock market is a hot topic among traders and economists. As global trade tensions rise, the potential for retaliatory tariffs could create volatility across key sectors, leading to significant shifts in market dynamics. As countries respond to new trade policies, investors must prepare for possible manufacturing, agriculture, and technology disruptions.
Sectors Most Affected by Retaliatory Tariffs
Manufacturing and Industrial Goods
Manufacturing is one of the first sectors to feel the heat of retaliatory tariffs. Companies that rely on raw materials such as steel and aluminum may face higher costs, squeezing profit margins. Industrial giants like Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) could see increased volatility as trade partners impose new tariffs on US exports.
Agriculture and Farming
US farmers are often at the center of trade disputes, as agricultural exports are a prime target for retaliatory tariffs. China, for example, has previously imposed tariffs on soybeans, corn, and pork in response to US trade measures. The retaliatory tariffs impact on US stock market could drive fluctuations in agricultural stocks like Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) and Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG).
Technology and Semiconductor Industry
Tech companies that operate globally, particularly those involved in semiconductors and consumer electronics, are also vulnerable. Many firms rely on international supply chains, and new tariffs could increase costs or limit market access. Chipmakers like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) may face uncertainty if key trading partners introduce new tariffs.
How the US Stock Market May React
Increased Volatility and Market Corrections
Historically, trade wars and tariffs have led to increased stock market volatility. Major indices, such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, often experience sharp movements as investors react to new trade policies.
Flight to Safe Haven Assets
When uncertainty rises due to the impact of retaliatory tariffs on the US stock market, investors often shift capital into gold, US Treasuries, and defensive stocks. Companies in utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples may see inflows as traders seek stability.
Long-Term Investment Opportunities
While short-term volatility is expected, traders who understand market cycles may find buying opportunities. If history is any guide, stocks tend to recover after trade disputes settle.
Conclusion: Preparing for Market Uncertainty
The impact of retaliatory tariffs on the US stock market is a complex issue that traders must monitor closely. By staying informed about sector vulnerabilities and market reactions, investors can position themselves for potential risks and opportunities.
March 13, 2025
📌 Recent Market Drop Is Rare – What Happens Next?
The Speed and Magnitude of the Recent Market Drop Is Rare—Here’s What Typically Happens Next
Introduction
The recent market selloff has been one of the fastest and most dramatic declines. With high volatility and rapid price swings, traders wonder what happens next.
While no two downturns are identical, historical patterns can provide valuable insights into the phases that typically follow such steep declines. If you’re looking for trading strategies that work in volatile markets, this guide will help you prepare for the next move.
How This Market Drop Compares to Historical Selloffs
Market crashes of this magnitude are rare, but they follow predictable cycles. Here’s what typically happens next:
1. Expect a Sharp Reflex Rally (Bear Market Bounce)
After a steep decline, markets often experience a short-term bounce driven by bargain hunting, short-covering, and institutional buying.
📈 Example: The 2020 COVID crash sharply declined in March, followed by a quick rally before another pullback.
✅ Trading Strategy: Don’t blindly chase rebounds—wait for confirmation through technical indicators like support levels, moving averages, and volume analysis.
2. Increased Volatility and Retesting of Lows
Markets don’t recover in a straight line. Instead, we often see a retest of previous lows before a true uptrend begins.
📉 Example: The 2008 Financial Crisis had multiple failed rallies before the actual bottom in March 2009.
🔍 What to Watch For:
- VIX (Volatility Index) spikes indicate uncertainty
- Institutional accumulation signals a potential reversal
- Bear market traps (where false breakouts lure traders in before reversing lower)
3. Sector Rotation and Market Leadership Changes
New leaders emerge after major downturns, and traders who recognize these shifts early have the best opportunities for big gains.
📊 Example:
- Tech stocks struggled after the 2000 dot-com crash while energy and commodities soared.
- Financial stocks took years to recover after the 2008 crisis, but tech and consumer discretionary led the next bull market.
🛠️ Trading Strategy: Use relative strength analysis to identify emerging sector leadership.
4. Fed and Government Policy Responses Can Shape Recovery
Sharp declines often lead to monetary policy adjustments, such as:
- Interest rate cuts
- Liquidity injections
- Stimulus packages
🏦 Example: In March 2020, the Federal Reserve stepped in aggressively, leading to one of the fastest recoveries in history.
📌 What This Means for Traders: Watch for policy changes—they often trigger market pivots and opportunities.
5. The Best Trading Opportunities Emerge After Panic Selling
While market crashes cause fear, they also create some of the best buying opportunities for traders who follow a structured strategy.
🔥 Proven Strategies for Market Downturns:
✅ Volatility Band Trading – Capturing high-probability reversals in extreme market conditions
✅ Momentum-Based Scalping – Finding short-term trade opportunities
✅ Institutional Order Flow Analysis – Following smart money movements
🛠️ Actionable Tip: Wait for trend confirmation signals before entering long trades.
What’s Next for Traders? Learn to Navigate Market Uncertainty Like a Pro
This market drop is rare in both speed and magnitude, but history shows that opportunities follow volatility. The key is to have a structured approach, use proven strategies, and avoid emotional trading.
If you want to master battle-tested trading strategies that thrive in volatile markets, join us at the Income Trading Boot Camp, June 8-11, 2025, in Miami Beach.
👉 Click here to learn more and apply now
By attending, you’ll learn:
✔️ How to identify high-probability trades in volatile markets
✔️ Institutional trading techniques for better execution
✔️ Real-time market analysis and strategy implementation
📍 Location: Cadillac Hotel and Beach Club, Miami Beach
📅 Dates: June 8-11, 2025
🎟️ Limited Spots: Only 3 seats left for new attendees!
Take control of your trading future—secure your spot today!
Intel’s Foundry Shake-Up: TSMC Pitches Joint Venture to Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom
Intel’s Foundry Shake-Up: TSMC Pitches Joint Venture to Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has been struggling to regain its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry, and a new development could mark a turning point. Reports indicate that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has pitched a joint venture proposal to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) to help manage Intel’s foundry operations. This potential restructuring has already caused ripples in the market, with Intel’s stock surging over 5% on the news.
The Proposed Joint Venture: What We Know
According to Reuters, TSMC has approached prominent U.S. chip designers about forming a joint venture to take over Intel’s struggling foundry division. Under the proposed agreement, TSMC would handle operations but not hold over 50% ownership stake, ensuring that the foundry remains under U.S. control. The initiative has reportedly garnered interest from Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM).
Why This Matters for Traders
Intel’s foundry business has faced challenges, including an $18.8 billion net loss in 2024. The company’s inability to compete effectively with TSMC and Samsung in advanced chip manufacturing has placed pressure on its bottom line. A strategic partnership with TSMC and leading AI chip designers could revitalize the business, making Intel a stronger competitor.
For investors, the potential deal presents both opportunities and risks:
- Positive Catalyst: If successful, the joint venture could increase efficiency, improved manufacturing capabilities, and a stronger market position for Intel.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Any agreement will require U.S. government approval, given concerns over maintaining domestic control over semiconductor manufacturing.
- Stock Movement: Intel shares saw a 5.5% spike following the news (Business Insider), signaling renewed investor optimism.
How Traders Can Capitalize on This News
- Watch for Regulatory Developments – The U.S. government’s stance on this partnership will be crucial to its success. Any roadblocks could lead to volatility in Intel’s stock.
- Monitor Competitor Reactions – How will other foundry competitors like Samsung respond? Market positioning among semiconductor giants could shift rapidly.
- Analyze Price Action and Technicals – Given the recent rally in INTC stock, traders should look for confirmation signals before entering positions.
Final Thoughts
Intel’s potential partnership with TSMC, Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom is a significant development that could reshape the semiconductor landscape. With AI and high-performance computing driving demand for advanced chips, this joint venture could boost Intel. However, traders should stay informed about regulatory proceedings and market reactions before making investment decisions.
For ongoing updates on trading opportunities in the semiconductor space, check back at TraderInsight.com.
March 12, 2025
