Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.January 31, 2025
Apple Earnings Report: The Key Metric Traders Are Watching Today
AAPL Earnings Report – Here’s What to Watch For
As Apple prepares to release its latest earnings report after the bell today, traders and investors are zeroing in on one critical figure: Apple earnings report iPhone sales in China. With Apple’s stock facing increased scrutiny amid rising competition, the company’s performance in this key market could determine its near-term trajectory.
The iPhone Revenue Factor
Apple’s iPhone segment remains its primary revenue driver, and analysts project a modest 2% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales, reaching approximately $70.72 billion. However, concerns loom over the company’s declining smartphone shipments in China, where domestic brands such as Huawei and Vivo have aggressively expanded their market share. Given that China accounts for a substantial portion of Apple’s global revenue, a weaker-than-expected performance in this region could send bearish signals to the market. The Apple earnings report iPhone sales will be closely watched to gauge the company’s strength in the competitive smartphone market.
Challenges in China
One of the major hurdles Apple faces in China is regulatory restrictions on its Apple Intelligence features. Unlike in other markets, iPhones sold in China do not come equipped with these AI-powered enhancements, putting Apple at a potential disadvantage against local competitors. Additionally, increased consumer preference for domestic brands and broader economic headwinds in the region add to the challenges Apple must navigate. Analysts expect the Apple earnings report iPhone sales to highlight these competitive pressures.
Revenue and EPS Expectations
Wall Street expects Apple to report total fiscal first-quarter revenue of $124.38 billion, marking a 4% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to rise to $2.35, reflecting continued profitability despite global economic uncertainty. While these headline numbers will be crucial, the market’s reaction will likely hinge on Apple’s forward guidance and management’s commentary on key growth drivers, including Apple earnings report iPhone sales trends.
What This Means for Traders
For traders, today’s earnings report presents an important inflection point. A strong beat on Apple earnings report iPhone sales—especially in China—could fuel a bullish rally, while disappointing numbers may pressure the stock downward. Additionally, guidance on services revenue, Mac and iPad sales, and Apple’s strategy in artificial intelligence will be closely analyzed for long-term growth prospects.
Final Thoughts
As earnings approach, traders should be prepared for potential volatility. Whether Apple’s report signals strength or weakness, the reaction in after-hours trading could set the tone for broader tech sector performance in the coming weeks. Keep a close watch on Apple earnings report iPhone sales figures and any insights provided on Apple’s China strategy, as these factors could significantly impact the stock’s direction.
Stay tuned to TraderInsight for a full breakdown of Apple’s earnings results and their implications for the market.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz
Related Article Apple (AAPL) Q1 earnings 2025
January 30, 2025
DeepSeek and Its Disruption of the AI Industry and Stock Market
DeepSeek AI Disruption
The artificial intelligence landscape is undergoing a seismic shift with the introduction of DeepSeek-R1, a breakthrough AI model from China’s DeepSeek. This innovation is poised to disrupt the AI ecosystem and trigger profound ramifications in technology and financial markets.
A Cost-Efficient Contender in the AI Arms Race
DeepSeek-R1 has captured global attention, not only for its performance but also for its remarkable cost efficiency. The model reportedly rivals the capabilities of leading AI models like OpenAI’s GPT-4. Yet, it was developed at a fraction of the cost—around $6 million compared to GPT-4’s estimated $100 million price tag. Moreover, the model operates on less advanced hardware, which could democratize AI access and development.
This development has highlighted China’s rapid strides in artificial intelligence, showcasing its ability to produce competitive AI technologies more affordably and with fewer resources. This approach could challenge the dominance of established Western AI firms like OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Microsoft, forcing them to rethink their strategies and cost structures.
Market Disruption and Stock Fallout
The financial implications of DeepSeek’s rise have been immediate and far-reaching. The launch of DeepSeek-R1 sent shockwaves through the stock market, leading to significant losses among major tech companies. Nvidia’s stock, for instance, plunged nearly 18%, erasing about $600 billion in market value. Other tech giants like Microsoft and Meta also saw declines, dragging the Nasdaq Composite Index down by over 3%.
The market reaction underscores investor concerns over DeepSeek’s competitive threat. If the model delivers on its promise of high performance at lower costs, it could force tech companies to lower prices or increase R&D spending to remain competitive. This, in turn, could compress profit margins and disrupt existing business models.
A “Wakeup Call” for the United States
In the wake of DeepSeek’s unveiling, U.S. political and industry leaders have called for renewed efforts to maintain competitiveness in the AI sector. Former President Donald Trump described DeepSeek’s emergence as a “wakeup call,” urging American industries to accelerate their innovation cycles. However, he also noted that DeepSeek’s cost-efficient approach could be a positive development if it fosters global collaboration and lowers barriers to AI adoption.
DeepSeek’s new AI chatbot and ChatGPT answer sensitive questions differently
A Transparent and Open Model
One of the most striking aspects of DeepSeek’s approach is its transparency. Unlike the proprietary models of many Western AI firms, DeepSeek has made its algorithms, models, and training data open-source. Researchers and the tech community have lauded this move, as it enables others to use, modify, and build upon DeepSeek’s work. This openness could accelerate innovation across the industry but may also intensify competition as more players gain access to cutting-edge AI technology.
Implications for the Future
The rise of DeepSeek-R1 has set the stage for a new era in artificial intelligence. For established players, the model’s success is a stark reminder of the need for agility and cost efficiency. Companies may need to explore more open and collaborative approaches to stay relevant. At the same time, DeepSeek’s achievement raises essential questions about intellectual property, cybersecurity, and the ethical use of AI.
For the financial markets, DeepSeek-R1’s debut signals heightened volatility in the tech sector. Investors will closely watch how established firms respond to this new competition and whether DeepSeek’s open-source model fosters widespread adoption or creates further fragmentation in the AI ecosystem.
Conclusion
DeepSeek-R1 is more than just a new AI model; it is a disruptive force that challenges existing paradigms in both technology and finance. As the world watches China’s rapid ascent in the AI arena, one thing is clear: the era of DeepSeek has begun, and its ripple effects will be felt across industries and markets for years to come.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz