Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive

Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.

Trading Like a Jedi: The Battle of Conscious vs. Unconscious Decision-Making in Day Trading

Picture this: you’re staring at a stock chart, watching candlesticks dance like they’re at a rave. The market’s moving fast, your heart’s racing, and suddenly you execute a trade. But wait—did you consciously decide that, or did your subconscious pull the trigger faster than a cowboy in an old spaghetti Western?

Welcome to the fascinating world of conscious vs. unconscious decision-making, where the two halves of your mental team are constantly duking it out. In conscious vs unconscious trading, this mental tug-of-war isn’t just for psychologists—it’s a critical concept for day traders. Performance psychologists work on focus to optimize results, so let’s dive in, learn which part of your brain is calling the shots, and figure out how to use this knowledge to become a better trader.

Conscious vs. Unconscious Trading: The Basics

  • Conscious Decision-Making: This is your rational brain at work, methodically weighing options, analyzing data, and making logical choices. It’s like the slow, detail-oriented accountant of your mind.
  • Unconscious Decision-Making: This is your instinctual, fast-acting brain—the ninja that leaps into action without overthinking. It’s based on past experiences, gut feelings, and pattern recognition.

While the conscious mind is deliberate and thoughtful, the unconscious is quick and automatic. Both have strengths, but in day trading, knowing when to lean on each is the secret sauce to success.

Why This Matters in Day Trading

Day trading is like playing mental chess with a clock ticking down. Sometimes, you need the thoughtful precision of the conscious mind, and other times, you need the reflexive speed of the unconscious. Here’s how they both come into play:

  1. Conscious Decisions: The Trader’s Blueprint
    Conscious decision-making is essential when you’re:

    • Creating a trading plan: Analyzing support, resistance, and patterns isn’t something your subconscious can handle on autopilot.
    • Evaluating risks: Deciding your stop-loss levels and profit targets requires deliberate thought.
    • Learning new strategies: Whether it’s the Baltimore Chop or the Nasdaq Volatility Band, understanding the logic behind a strategy is a conscious process.

However, relying solely on your conscious mind during live trading can backfire. It’s slow—too slow for fast-moving markets—and prone to paralysis by analysis.

  1. Unconscious Decisions: The Trader’s Reflexes
    Once you’ve put in the practice and know your strategy inside out, your unconscious mind takes over. This is where you:

    • React quickly to setups: Spotting a high-probability trade and executing it without hesitation is the hallmark of a well-trained unconscious mind.
    • Navigate volatility: Rapid decisions during market swings come from deeply ingrained patterns, not conscious deliberation.
    • Stick to your plan: With enough practice, following your trading rules becomes second nature.

The Danger Zone: When They Work Against You

Of course, both types of decision-making can get you into trouble:

  • Conscious Overload: Overthinking every tick or second-guessing a setup can lead to hesitation, missed trades, and frustration.
  • Unconscious Misfire: Acting on gut instinct without proper training or preparation is like playing poker with Monopoly money—you might get lucky, but you’re not playing the real game.

conscious vs unconscious decisions are like driving on and off autopilot

The Trader’s Balancing Act

So, how do you balance these two forces? It’s all about knowing when to train the conscious mind and when to trust the unconscious. Here’s how to strike that balance:

  1. Start With Conscious Mastery
    Every great trader begins by consciously learning the rules of the game. Spend time:

    • Studying trading strategies and setups.
    • Practicing on simulators, we like TradingSim, to gain confidence.
    • Reviewing your trades to understand what works and what doesn’t.

This is the groundwork that programs your unconscious mind for success.

  1. Practice Until It’s Automatic
    With enough repetition, your brain shifts tasks from the conscious to the unconscious. This is the magic of neuroplasticity. Patterns that once required intense focus become reflexive. You’re no longer thinking, “Is this an Infield Fly reversal?” You just know.
  2. Use Conscious Thought as a Checkpoint
    Even after you’ve automated much of your trading, conscious decisions still play a key role. They’re when you pause and ask, “Does this trade align with my plan?” before letting your instincts take the wheel.
  3. Avoid Emotional Hijacking
    Emotions live in your unconscious mind, and they love to crash the party. Fear, greed, and FOMO (fear of missing out) can override your best judgment. Build routines—like meditating or setting strict rules—to keep emotional impulses in check.

A Quick Day Trading Scenario of conscious vs unconscious trading

Let’s say you’re trading the opening bell. A stock gaps up and tests a support level—a perfect setup for the Baltimore Chop 2SD Opening Gap strategy you’ve been practicing.

  • Conscious Mind at Work: You recognize the setup, confirm it matches your trading plan, and decide to enter the trade.
  • Unconscious Mind Takes Over: The stock hits your pre-defined profit target, and your instincts tell you to exit without hesitation. No second-guessing, no freezing up.

By combining these two decision-making systems, you trade confidently and efficiently.

The Takeaway: Your Brain, Your Edge

In day trading, conscious and unconscious decision-making are like a tag team. The conscious mind builds the strategy, lays the groundwork, and ensures discipline, while the unconscious mind reacts swiftly and confidently during the action.

Mastering this balance takes time, practice, and patience. But once you’ve trained your brain, you’ll make decisions that are fast, precise, and aligned with your trading goals. It’s not just a skill—it’s your secret weapon.

So, whether you’re refining your strategies or sharpening your instincts, remember this: both parts of your brain are your allies. The Jedi trader within is ready to rise. May the force of decision-making be with you!

Psychological Challenges Traders Face

Conquering the Psychological Challenges Traders Face: Overcoming Fear and Hesitation

The psychological challenges traders face often determine their market success or failure. Chief among these challenges is the fear of uncertainty—the dread of not knowing what will happen next. This fear can lead to hesitation, second-guessing, and poor decision-making. After a string of losses, many traders wrestle with self-doubt, telling themselves, “If I go long, the market goes down. If I go short, the market goes up. Just do the opposite of what I do, and you’ll make a fortune.”

At its core, this fear stems from the natural desire to be correct, a need to see proof that a trading decision is “correct” before acting. Unfortunately, this mindset often results in costly mistakes that can compound losses and undermine confidence.

Hesitation: The Root of Incorrect Decisions

One of the most common psychological challenges traders face is hesitation. Traders hesitate because they await additional confirmation that their analysis is valid. They want the market to prove them right before taking action, but in the fast-moving world of trading, waiting often means missing the optimal entry point.

For example, during a pullback, imagine a trader planning a long entry on Tesla (TSLA) at $345.15. A confident trader places a limit order at $345.15 to $345.20, trusting their analysis and strategy. Their trade triggers as the price moves toward the anticipated inflection point.

On the other hand, the hesitant trader is fearful of catching a falling knife and decides to wait until TSLA starts climbing after touching $345.15. By the time they entered, the price had already moved higher. This delay results in price slippage, meaning they receive a worse entry price because the bid/ask spread has widened due to buying pressure.

The Impact on Reward-to-Risk Ratios

The difference between the confident and hesitant trader lies in their reward-to-risk ratio:

  • Confident Trader:
    • Wide travel range from entry to target, meaning higher potential profit.
    • Narrow travel range from entry to stop, keeping potential losses small.
    • High reward-to-risk ratio, which is crucial for long-term profitability.
  • Hesitant Trader:
    • Narrow travel range from entry to target, reducing profit potential.
    • Wide travel range from entry to stop, increasing the chance of significant losses.
    • Poor reward-to-risk ratio, making it difficult to sustain success over time.

The hesitant trader’s unfavorable risk profile often leads to frustration, reinforcing their lack of confidence and creating a vicious cycle.

Understanding Fear and Uncertainty

The fear of uncertainty is one of the most persistent psychological challenges traders face. Markets are inherently unpredictable, and no amount of analysis can guarantee the outcome of a trade. However, traders often attempt to avoid uncertainty by seeking confirmation before acting, ironically increasing their risk.

Emotional responses to losses compound this fear. Many traders internalize losing trades as personal failures, undermining their self-esteem and ability to execute future trades effectively.

How to Overcome the Psychological Challenges Traders Face

  1. Trust Your Process:
    Build and stick to a well-researched trading plan. Confidence comes from consistent execution, not from trying to predict the market perfectly.
  2. Embrace Uncertainty:
    Accept that uncertainty is a natural part of trading. Focus on probabilities, not certainties, and remind yourself that no single trade defines your success.
  3. Commit to Your Entries:
    Place your orders at the planned price and allow the market to take its course. Hesitation often leads to missed opportunities and unfavorable entries.
  4. Prioritize Risk Management:
    Protecting your capital with well-placed stop-loss orders and managing position sizes can help mitigate fear and maintain your psychological resilience.
  5. Evaluate After the Trade:
    Analyze your trades once they are closed, not while they are active. This reduces emotional decision-making and helps you learn from both wins and losses.

Conclusion

The psychological challenges traders face are significant but not insurmountable. Fear, hesitation, and second-guessing are natural reactions to the uncertainty of financial markets, but they don’t have to define your trading journey. By trusting your analysis, embracing the uncertainty of trading, and sticking to a disciplined approach, you can overcome these challenges and achieve long-term success. Remember, trading is not about being right every time—it’s about executing a sound strategy consistently and managing risk effectively.

Click here for Julie’s previous article on overcoming three psychological hurdles in trading.

Good Trading,

Adrian Manz

December 2024 PMI and Construction Spending Insights: A Guide for Traders and Investors

December 2024 PMI and Construction Spending Insights

On December 2, 2024, the release of key economic data—including the Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Construction Spending figures—will provide critical PMI and construction spending insights. These metrics are essential for assessing the health of the manufacturing sector and the broader economy. Understanding their significance can help traders and investors anticipate market movements and make well-informed decisions.

December 2024 PMI and Construction Spending Insights

What These Indicators Mean

  1. Final Manufacturing PMI
    The Final Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) reflects the manufacturing sector’s performance. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 signals contraction. This index offers insights into production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times.
  2. ISM Manufacturing PMI
    Like the Final Manufacturing PMI, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI also tracks manufacturing activity. However, it includes more U.S.-specific elements like prices paid and inventories. It’s a robust indicator of economic momentum or weakness.
  3. Construction Spending
    Construction spending measures the total expenditure on residential, commercial, and infrastructure projects. Rising figures typically suggest economic growth, while declines may point to slowdowns in business activity or consumer confidence.

How to Interpret the Numbers

  • Expected Numbers:
    If the data meets expectations, it indicates stability in economic conditions. This typically results in moderate stock market reactions as most investors will have already priced in the anticipated results.
  • Below Expectations:
    Lower-than-expected PMI readings signal weaker manufacturing activity, often interpreted as a sign of economic slowdown. If construction spending also falls short, it could suggest broader concerns about economic growth. In such cases, equity markets may decline, especially in industrial and material sectors. Conversely, bonds and defensive sectors like utilities may see gains.
  • Above Expectations:
    Stronger-than-expected PMI numbers indicate robust manufacturing growth. If paired with higher construction spending, this can signal broader economic strength, often driving stock markets higher. Cyclical sectors like technology, financials, and consumer discretionary may benefit the most.

Stock Market Impacts on December 2, 2024

  • If Numbers Align with Expectations:
    Stock market movements will likely be subdued. Traders may focus on sector-specific impacts rather than market-wide trends.
  • If Numbers Fall Short:
    Expect a sell-off in manufacturing-heavy stocks and indices. The Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions may also weigh heavily on investor sentiment, especially if the data supports a dovish stance.
  • If Numbers Exceed Expectations:
    The markets may rally, with increased demand for riskier assets. Anticipation of sustained economic growth could overshadow concerns about tighter monetary policy.

In conclusion, the December 2024 PMI and construction spending data offer crucial insights into economic momentum. Whether you’re trading stocks, bonds, or commodities, these figures will shape market sentiment and provide a roadmap for strategic positioning.


By monitoring December 2024 PMI and Construction Spending Insights, you can stay ahead of the curve and make data-driven trading decisions.

Click here to read more recent articles.

Good Trading,

Adrian Manz

Rewiring Your Brain: Neuroplasticity, Day Trading, and the Art of Becoming Awesome

Imagine this: you’ve spent years telling yourself you’ll never learn to play the guitar, master a second language, or finally stop putting two spaces after a period (sorry, 90s typing class graduates). Maybe you’ve even convinced yourself that day trading is for math whizzes or financial wizards born with some secret stock market gene. But here’s the truth: your brain is far more adaptable than you think. You can rewire your brain for day trading.

Welcome to the world of neuroplasticity: the scientific way of saying, “Your brain is way cooler and more capable than you give it credit for.” And yes, that includes rewiring your brain and learning how to day trade.

What Is Neuroplasticity?

Neuroplasticity is your brain’s ability to rewire itself. Like a road crew rerouting traffic after finding out the bridge is out, your neurons (brain cells) can forge new pathways when old ones aren’t working or when new skills are learned. Think of these pathways as mental highways. Use them enough, and they become super-efficient. Ignore them, and they’ll shrink into overgrown dirt trails.

This means that with the right approach, you can rewire your brain to excel in just about anything, including day trading. The skill isn’t reserved for financial gurus; it’s for anyone willing to build the neural pathways needed for sharp decision-making, pattern recognition, and emotional discipline.

How Neuroplasticity Applies to Day Trading

Day trading might initially seem overwhelming—charts, candlesticks, market volatility, oh my! But neuroplasticity is the ultimate equalizer. Here’s how it works:

  1. Building Pattern Recognition
    Day trading relies heavily on recognizing patterns in market data—something your brain excels at with practice. The more you expose yourself to charts, setups, and trading strategies, the better your neurons become at firing together to spot winning trades.
  2. Strengthening Decision-Making Muscles
    Day trading is like a mental gym. Every trade you analyze or execute sharpens your brain’s ability to process information and make fast, informed decisions. Over time, those neural pathways get stronger, making decision-making feel second nature.
  3. Developing Emotional Discipline
    One of the hardest parts of trading is keeping emotions in check. Neuroplasticity allows you to reframe fear, greed, and impulsivity into calm, calculated responses. With practice, your brain learns to stay cool under pressure, even when the market throws curveballs.

Steps to Rewire Your Brain for Day Trading Success

  1. Start With Small Goals
    Don’t dive into the deep end with large trades or overly complex strategies. Focus on mastering one skill at a time, like understanding support and resistance or spotting a specific pattern, such as an expansion-of-range-and-volume “Fastball” pattern. Small wins build confidence—and pathways.
  2. Practice with a Simulator
    Trading simulators, like TradingSim, are perfect for rewiring your brain in a risk-free environment. You can repeatedly practice setups, entries, and exits by simulating actual trades without losing your hard-earned money. Your brain thrives on repetition.
  3. Learn from the Pros
    Following structured trading plans and learning from verified, experienced traders can fast-track your brain’s learning curve. Whether it’s a strategy like the Baltimore Chop Opening Gap or recognizing Nasdaq Volatility Bands, every bit of exposure reinforces your trading instincts.
  4. Review and Reflect
    Keeping a trading journal is like giving your brain a map to follow. Write down what worked, what didn’t, and why. Over time, this reflection strengthens your ability to adapt and improve, which is crucial for creating neural pathways geared toward consistent success.
  5. Train for Emotional Control
    Take a deep breath and count to five. Meditate for ten minutes before you start your trading session. These aren’t just wellness clichés—they’re scientifically proven ways to engage your brain’s prefrontal cortex, which governs logical thinking and emotional control.

Why It’s Never Too Late to Learn Day Trading

Neuroplasticity doesn’t come with an expiration date. Whether you’re 25 or 65, your brain is capable of adapting to the demands of day trading. Research suggests that through neuroplasticity, the brain can learn from setbacks and adjust to new challenges. Every time you sit down to study charts, analyze trades, or learn a new strategy, you’re literally reshaping your mind for success.

Fun Facts About Neuroplasticity and Rewiring your Brain for Day Trading

  • Your Brain Loves Feedback: Reviewing your trades (the good, the bad, and the ugly) gives your brain the reinforcement it needs to tweak and improve.
  • Mistakes Are Part of the Process: Every time you lose a trade and analyze why, your brain rewires itself to avoid that mistake in the future.
  • You’re Not Alone: Every expert trader started as a beginner, with a brain just as unsure and untrained as yours. Neuroplasticity was their secret weapon.

The Takeaway: Rewiring for Financial Freedom

Learning to day trade might feel intimidating, but it’s 100% possible with the power of neuroplasticity. Your brain is ready to adapt, grow, and master the skills you need to succeed in the markets. Whether it’s spotting a perfect chart setup or staying calm during a volatile session, those neural pathways will strengthen with consistent practice and focus. By focusing on healthy trading habits, and letting go of bad ones, your brain works with your to increase your trading success.

So, grab a notebook, open a trading simulator, or join a structured program to jumpstart your journey. And remember: every expert trader started as a novice. With effort and neuroplasticity on your side, there’s no limit to what your brain—and your portfolio—can achieve.

Time to rewire and rise!

A Busy Pre-Thanksgiving Session

How Pre-Holiday Volume, Core CPE Price Index, and Pending Home Sales Shape Market Price Action on November 27, 2024

The trading day on Wednesday, November 27, 2024, is set to be influenced by pre-holiday volume, the Core CPE Price Index, and Pending Home Sales. These factors will combine with the unique dynamics of pre-Thanksgiving trading to shape market price action. Understanding their individual impacts can help traders navigate the session effectively.


What Is the Core CPE Price Index?

The Core CPE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs. It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, making it a crucial data point for assessing economic stability and potential monetary policy shifts.

A higher-than-expected Core CPE reading could signal persistent inflation, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes, while a lower reading may ease concerns and support bullish sentiment in equities.

For more details about the Core CPE Price Index and other economic data, visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


What Are Pending Home Sales, and Why Do They Matter?

Pending Home Sales represent signed contracts to purchase homes, providing a forward-looking indicator of housing market activity. Unlike existing home sales, which reflect completed transactions, pending sales offer insights into buyer demand and economic confidence.

A strong report could indicate consumer resilience despite high interest rates, while weak data might suggest economic headwinds and cooling demand in the housing market.


Pre-Holiday Volume Trends

Trading volume on the day before Thanksgiving is typically lower than usual, as many market participants step away early for the holiday. This reduced activity often results in less liquidity and more pronounced price movements. However, the day can also present unique opportunities, as smaller trades may have outsized impacts on price action.

The day after Thanksgiving, markets operate on shortened hours and exhibit even lighter volume. While this limits trading opportunities, it can also lead to erratic price swings, making it a day for caution.


What to Expect on November 27, 2024

  1. Pre-Holiday Volume
    • Expect reduced market participation, especially in the afternoon. This may lead to increased volatility and sharper moves due to thinner liquidity.
  2. Core CPE Price Index
    • A hotter-than-expected reading could pressure equities as traders factor in the possibility of tighter monetary policy.
    • A cooler reading may support a rally, particularly in growth stocks sensitive to interest rate expectations.
  3. Pending Home Sales
    • Strong data may bolster sentiment in consumer and housing-related sectors, while weak results could weigh on the broader market.

How to Trade This Session

  • Focus on Volatility: Take advantage of sharper moves in the morning when volume is higher.
  • Monitor Economic Data: React quickly to the Core CPE and Pending Home Sales reports, as they’ll set the tone for market sentiment.
  • Limit Afternoon Activity: Be cautious of exaggerated price swings due to declining volume later in the day.

Click here for more recent articles.

Good Trading,

Adrian Manz