Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.OpenAI For-Profit Transition
OpenAI Completes For-Profit Conversion, Paving Way for IPO and Pushing Microsoft Past $4 Trillion.
The AI leader’s shift to a public-benefit corporation unlocks new funding avenues, cements Microsoft’s 27% stake, and sets the stage for one of the most anticipated IPOs of the decade.
OpenAI has completed its conversion into a public-benefit corporation, a milestone that removes a key structural hurdle to an eventual initial public offering and further aligns it with Microsoft. Under the new framework, Microsoft will own 27% of OpenAI’s for-profit entity, while OpenAI’s nonprofit parent receives a stake valued at roughly $130 billion—with the potential to rise alongside future valuation gains.
What’s in the deal
- Ownership: Microsoft at 27%; nonprofit parent retains a significant equity stake through the new public-benefit structure.
- Commercial terms: Microsoft receives exclusive IP rights to OpenAI technology until 2032; OpenAI commits an additional $250 billion to Azure over time.
- Mission guardrails: The nonprofit rebrands as the OpenAI Foundation with initial commitments to healthcare and AI resilience initiatives, adding public-interest accountability to a profit-seeking model.
Why the structure changed
OpenAI’s previous capped-profit design was effective for early funding but clumsy for scaling a company now targeting multi-hundred-billion dollar infrastructure investments. The public-benefit corporation preserves mission language while enabling flexible equity issuance, employee compensation, and debt financing—all essential for building out data centers, model training capacity, and distribution.
Microsoft’s calculus
For Microsoft, deepening its link with OpenAI strengthens Azure’s positioning as the default AI cloud. The exclusive IP window through 2032 secures differentiation for Copilot and enterprise AI services, while the Azure commitment provides long-duration revenue visibility to support Microsoft’s expanding data center footprint.
What it means for investors
- IPO path cleared: The conversion removes a core blocker to a public listing; timing will hinge on market conditions and OpenAI’s capacity ramp.
- Dilution vs. scale: Existing backers may face dilution as OpenAI raises capital, but the addressable market and revenue outlook could outweigh ownership shrink.
- AI capex flywheel: Larger, longer-dated AI contracts (chips, power, facilities) become easier to finance—supporting upstream beneficiaries in semis, equipment, and utilities.
Key risks
- Regulatory scrutiny: Antitrust, AI safety, and data-governance frameworks are still evolving; oversight could alter product rollouts or deal structures.
- Bubbles & balance sheets: Industry-wide AI capex could overshoot near-term demand; disciplined phasing and utilization will be critical.
- Ecosystem tensions: As partners and competitors overlap, OpenAI and Microsoft must manage channel conflict and multi-model strategies.
Bottom line
The OpenAI for-profit transition aligns mission with market pragmatism. It unlocks capital at the scale required to sustain leadership in model development—while reinforcing Microsoft’s moat across cloud, productivity, and enterprise AI. For markets, this is a green light for the next leg of AI infrastructure build-out.
Editor’s note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Venezuela Suspends Energy Cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago
Venezuela Suspends Energy Cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago: What It Means for Gas, Geopolitics, and LNG
Venezuela has canceled energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago, a day after a U.S. warship docked in the country, escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas. President Nicolás Maduro said the suspension responds to Trinidad and Tobago’s “adherence to a U.S. aggression plan,” abruptly freezing work on the Dragon offshore gasfield that was intended to feed Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG complex.
What happened
- Caracas announced it is “suspending all energy co-operation” with Trinidad and Tobago.
- The move follows the arrival of the USS Gravely in Trinidad, part of the largest U.S. naval deployment to the region in three decades, alongside the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group.
- Earlier this month, the U.S. authorized Trinidad’s National Gas Co. (NGC) to resume work on Dragon after prior revocations affecting Shell and BP projects in Venezuelan waters.
Why it matters
The geopolitical backdrop
The suspension tracks a broader escalation: U.S. forces have conducted multiple maritime strikes on suspected trafficking vessels in recent weeks, while Washington increases naval presence. For Caracas, halting energy cooperation is both a signal to Washington and leverage on Port of Spain, given Trinidad’s strategic interest in reviving LNG throughput.
Immediate implications
LNG supply
Any prolonged delay can tighten Atlantic Basin LNG availability at the margin, especially during peak seasonal demand, nudging spot price volatility higher if other outages emerge.
Project finance & timelines
Engineering, permitting, and cross-border offtake arrangements will likely be re-sequenced. EPC contractors and JV partners may seek force-majeure clarity or milestone relief.
Regional diplomacy
Port of Spain faces a balancing act: maintain U.S. alignment while preserving an energy lifeline that supports domestic industry and export revenues.
Winners & losers (near term)
- Potential beneficiaries: Flexible U.S. Gulf Coast LNG, West African spot cargoes, and pipeline-linked suppliers with spare capacity may capture incremental demand.
- At risk: Stakeholders tied to the Dragon commissioning schedule (infrastructure providers, service vessels, and some regional downstream users anticipating cheaper molecules).
What to watch next
- Official communiqués from Port of Spain and Caracas on whether the suspension is temporary or tied to specific security pre-conditions.
- License posture from U.S. agencies regarding energy transactions in Venezuelan waters.
- Atlantic LNG utilization metrics and any guidance on feedstock substitution.
- Naval movements and incident reports that could raise maritime insurance premiums or affect offshore operations scheduling.
Trading lens (for active market participants)
- LNG & gas spreads: Watch TTF/JKM vs. Henry Hub on any Atlantic tightness; Caribbean disruptions can have outsized headline effects on prompt spreads even if fundamental volumes are modest.
- Shipping: Monitor Caribbean risk premiums and potential re-routing that tightens vessel availability.
- Credit: Re-price risk for entities with Dragon-linked cash flows or capex milestones; look for covenant waivers or timeline resets in disclosures.
Bottom line
Venezuela suspends energy cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago at a delicate moment for Caribbean gas balances and regional security. The move injects political risk into a commercial rescue plan that was designed to revive Trinidad’s LNG complex. How quickly diplomacy de-escalates—and whether a conditional path back to cooperation emerges—will determine if this is a brief detour or a structural setback for Dragon gas and Atlantic LNG.
Nvidia stock all-time high
Nvidia Stock Poised for New Record as AI Boom Fuels Investor Optimism
Nvidia Nears Record as Earnings Week Takes Center Stage
Why Big Tech Guidance Matters for NVDA
- Capex visibility: Guidance from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta on AI capex is the primary near-term catalyst for Nvidia’s trajectory.
- Inference flywheel: Expanding AI workloads beyond training should extend demand duration for Nvidia’s data-center GPUs.
- Upgrade cycle: Anticipation for next-gen platforms keeps utilization high and supports premium pricing.
AI Demand Is Global—Not Just a U.S. Story
Fresh international projects underscore the breadth of demand for high-performance computing. Ambitions like multi-gigawatt data-center builds abroad signal that the AI infrastructure race is spreading geographically, adding potential upside to Nvidia’s already robust order pipeline.
Semis in Sympathy: AMD and Broadcom Catch a Bid
Strength in AI infrastructure continues to lift peers across the semiconductor stack. While AMD is pressing its accelerator roadmap and Broadcom benefits from
networking and custom silicon, Nvidia still commands the lion’s share of AI accelerator deployments across hyperscale data centers.
What Could Push Nvidia Stock to a New All-Time High
- Stronger-than-feared cloud capex commentary from hyperscalers and neoclouds.
- Evidence of sustained inference demand that complements the training cycle.
- Road-map clarity that reassures customers on performance, supply, and TCO improvements.
- Stable macro backdrop that keeps risk appetite intact for AI infrastructure investment.
Bottom Line
The setup into earnings week is constructive: if Big Tech signals another year of heavy AI investment, Nvidia stock all-time high talk could quickly turn into a fresh breakout above the psychological $200 level. For now, NVDA isn’t just riding the AI wave—it’s helping define it.
Amazon Layoffs 2025
Amazon to Lay Off Up to 30,000 Corporate Workers as AI Reshapes Workforce
Amazon.com is preparing to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs—around 10% of its white-collar workforce—beginning as soon as Tuesday, marking one of the tech giant’s largest cost-cutting moves since 2022.
The layoffs will unfold in stages and affect multiple divisions, including human resources, AWS cloud computing, advertising, and corporate operations, according to people familiar with the plans. Thousands of employees are expected to receive notices this week, with further rounds to follow.
Key Details:
• Up to 30,000 job cuts (≈10% of corporate staff)
• Affected units: HR, AWS, advertising, and other corporate divisions
• Largest layoff since 2022, when 27,000 jobs were eliminated
• Layoffs tied to AI-driven restructuring and post-pandemic over-expansion
Post-Pandemic Overexpansion Meets AI Transformation
Amazon’s leadership views this reduction as a “course correction” following aggressive hiring during the pandemic, when surging e-commerce demand led the company to double its warehouse footprint and expand its corporate ranks.
CEO Andy Jassy has spent the past two years tightening costs while redirecting resources toward artificial intelligence initiatives meant to strengthen Amazon’s cloud business and automate internal operations. In a June memo, Jassy told staff that “increasing use of generative AI will eliminate the need for certain jobs” and described the technology as a “once-in-a-lifetime transformation.”
Fed Poised to End Quantitative Tightening
Fed Poised to End Quantitative Tightening: What It Means for Banks, Markets, and Traders
- Funding stress markers: SRF take-up recently touched pandemic-era levels, a hint that reserves are nearing the Fed’s “ample” threshold (liquidity sufficient, but not flush).
- Policy mix shift: Chair Jay Powell signaled rate cuts “in the coming months”; markets are pricing another 25 bp cut to 3.75%–4.00% today. Ending QT reduces the risk of an accidental liquidity squeeze working at cross-purposes with rate easing.
- 2019 lesson: Officials are wary of a repeat of the Sept-2019 repo spike, when reserves fell faster than expected and short-term rates leapt above target.
QT vs. QE in one minute:
- QE: Fed buys Treasuries/MBS, expanding reserves and easing financial conditions.
- QT: Fed allows maturities to roll off without reinvestment, shrinking reserves and tightening conditions.
- Since April, runoff was already slowed (Treasuries cap cut to ~$5B/month; MBS up to ~$35B/month continues). The Fed ending quantitative tightening would halt (or near-halt) the runoff to stabilize reserves.
What changes for banks and money markets
Bank reserves
Ending QT helps stop the bleed in reserves, lowering odds of a scramble for cash at quarter-ends and large settlement days. That eases pressure on funding desks and curbs volatility in overnight rates.
SOFR & repo
With QT paused, overnight benchmarks (SOFR/GC repo) should track the policy rate more smoothly, reducing the need for SRF backstops and dampening intraday rate spikes.
Treasury plumbing
Less runoff means more balance-sheet capacity to absorb issuance. It won’t fix supply dynamics, but it trims one headwind for auction tails and term-premium creep.
Market implications
- Rates: Curve bull-steepening risk if the short end rallies on cuts while term premium remains sticky. Front-end funding spreads should compress.
- Credit: Tighter funding spreads and steadier repo tone are credit supportive, especially for short-dated IG and financials.
- Equities: A liquidity tailwind favors banks with wholesale funding sensitivity and rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, housing-adjacent), but Fed guidance on reinvestments will shape durability.
- Mortgages: If the Fed keeps up to $35B/month in MBS roll-offs while ending Treasury runoff, MBS basis could remain choppy relative to swaps/Treasuries.
The decision tree: likely paths
Base Case: End Treasury QT now
- Pause Treasury runoff; maintain (or slow later) MBS roll-offs.
- Message: “Reserves are ample; we’ll reinvest to keep it that way.”
- Impact: Calmer funding; modest rally front-end; supportive for financials.
Gradualist: Signal December end
- Strong hint today; formal stop at next meeting.
- Impact: Eases volatility premium but prolongs reserve drift.
Surprise: Full reinvestment (QE-lite)
- Immediate reinvestment of all maturities.
- Impact: Bullish risk; raises “too easy” debate given inflation optics.
Key watch-items for desks
- Fed statement & press conference: Exact language on “abundant” vs “ample” reserves and reinvestment mechanics.
- SRF usage & SOFR prints: A quick fade in SRF take-up post-decision would confirm relief.
- Treasury General Account (TGA) path and bill issuance: TGA rebuilds can still siphon reserves; bill mix matters for money funds and RRP balances.
- MBS policy: Whether MBS roll-offs continue unchanged or get tapered later.
Risks & pushback
- Inflation optics: Critics argue QE/QT cycles helped fuel the latest inflation surge; ending QT may be cast as “easing into sticky prices.”
- Residual tightness: If bill supply and TGA rebuilding outpace reinvestments, reserves may remain tight even after the Fed ending quantitative tightening.
- Communication error: An ambiguous roadmap could keep term funding premia elevated.
Bottom line
The case for the Fed ending quantitative tightening is straightforward: reserve scarcity signals are blinking, rate cuts are underway, and the 2019 episode looms large. Ending QT won’t solve every liquidity wrinkle, but it reduces the tail risk of a funding shock—a prerequisite for a smooth transition to lower policy rates.