Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.How OpenAI Rewrote the Rules of Tech Negotiation
Inside Sam Altman’s $1.5 Trillion AI Deals: How OpenAI Rewrote the Rules of Tech Negotiation
Altman’s Inner Circle and the Vision Behind the Deals
Insiders say Altman worked closely with OpenAI president Greg Brockman, chief financial officer Sarah Friar, and operations leader Peter Hoeschele to finalize the deals. Together, they aimed to accelerate chip development and data center capacity—focusing on technical execution first and leaving financial details to follow.
“Sam is the visionary, but Greg and the team under him really pulled these deals together,” said one person close to the negotiations. Brockman, a cofounder of OpenAI and former CTO of Stripe, reportedly handled the most difficult structural challenges behind the scenes.
Friar, who previously led Nextdoor and held senior roles at Salesforce and Block, was described as a “strong voice” in ensuring the projects remained financially viable. Her capital markets background proved essential to OpenAI’s strategy of scaling quickly while preserving flexibility.
From CoreWeave to Nvidia: The Blueprint for Scale
The current deal structure evolved from OpenAI’s early partnership with CoreWeave, where an $11.9 billion computing contract in exchange for $350 million in equity became the model for later agreements. That deal expanded to over $22 billion as CoreWeave’s valuation tripled, illustrating the circular nature of OpenAI’s ecosystem—where suppliers often become investors and customers simultaneously.
In similar fashion, Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI while the start-up committed to spend up to $350 billion on high-performance chips over several years. The arrangement was built on the long-standing personal rapport between Altman and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
“That one was very much them,” a person close to the talks said, describing how the two leaders coordinated the deal directly without external bankers.
Strategic Partnerships with AMD, Oracle, and Broadcom
Altman also secured a $300 billion, five-year deal with Oracle to utilize its data centers, starting with a site in Abilene, Texas. The partnership emerged after Oracle lost an original tenant for the project in 2024. Meanwhile, AMD’s agreement gave OpenAI the right to purchase up to 10% of AMD stock at a penny per share in return for a 6GW chip order—an incentive designed to deepen collaboration.
Broadcom is involved in a similar multi-billion-dollar supply chain agreement that could extend over the next decade as OpenAI ramps up its 20-gigawatt data center ambitions.
Streamlined Negotiations and Minimal Advisors
Altman’s choice to exclude traditional banking intermediaries has raised eyebrows among analysts who say the agreements lack transparency and detailed financial disclosure. Still, insiders defend the approach as an intentional effort to “streamline and de-politicize” dealmaking, allowing OpenAI to act quickly in an industry moving at unprecedented speed.
“The focus has been on building capacity, not on structuring Wall Street-style financings,” one executive familiar with the process said.
OpenAI’s goal is to reach 1 gigawatt of computing power per week, with Hoeschele’s operations team leading execution. Recently, the company hired Mike Liberatore, formerly of Elon Musk’s xAI, to oversee financing for its growing AI infrastructure network.
The Bigger Picture: OpenAI’s Expanding Industrial Footprint
These trillion-dollar deals highlight Altman’s ambition to turn OpenAI into both an AI software pioneer and an infrastructure powerhouse—essentially creating the backbone for the world’s AI economy. The open-ended contracts also give the company flexibility to scale back if funding or market conditions change, reducing financial risk.
Analysts remain divided: some see visionary long-term positioning, while others warn of overreach in a capital-intensive sector. Still, the scope of Altman’s strategy has cemented OpenAI’s role as the epicenter of global AI development—and his personal reputation as Silicon Valley’s most audacious dealmaker.
Nvidia Invests $1 Billion in Nokia
Nvidia Invests $1 Billion in Nokia to Bring AI to Telecom Networks
Nokia’s Comeback Fueled by AI
Nvidia is investing $1 billion in Nokia, acquiring a 2.9% stake in the Finnish telecoms giant as part of a broad alliance to integrate artificial intelligence into the world’s wireless infrastructure. The deal positions Nvidia as one of Nokia’s largest shareholders and signals growing momentum behind the AI-driven telecom revolution.The two companies announced plans to collaborate on AI-enabled telecom networks and data center infrastructure, combining Nvidia’s cutting-edge chip technology with Nokia’s expertise in 5G and 6G networks. Nokia will issue 166,389,351 new shares to Nvidia in exchange for the investment.
Shares in Nokia surged 21% to a 10-year high following the announcement, adding €6.7 billion to its market capitalization. The investment represents a strong endorsement of Nokia’s shift away from traditional network infrastructure toward AI and cloud-based growth opportunities.
“This partnership will accelerate our vision of intelligent networks that learn, optimize, and evolve in real time,” a Nokia executive said in a statement. The collaboration aims to make next-generation wireless systems faster, more efficient, and capable of autonomously managing energy consumption and data traffic.
The Rise of AI-RAN Technology
Nokia will deploy Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU-based computing platform to power its new AI-RAN (Artificial Intelligence Radio Access Network) initiative. This emerging technology allows telecom networks to use machine learning to allocate spectrum dynamically and manage massive amounts of user data efficiently.
According to research firm Omdia, the global AI-RAN market could reach $200 billion by 2030 as telecom providers race to modernize their infrastructure with AI-driven tools. Nvidia’s involvement gives Nokia an edge in this fast-growing segment.
Strategic and Geopolitical Implications
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the partnership will strengthen U.S. influence in next-generation telecom technology. “Wireless networks are the lifeblood of industry and national security,” Huang said. “They were designed in the U.S., but too much of the hardware is foreign. That has to stop.”
The collaboration aligns with U.S. efforts to secure domestic supply chains for critical technologies and reduce dependence on Chinese hardware providers such as Huawei and ZTE.
Nvidia’s Expanding AI Empire
The Nokia investment is the latest in a string of strategic moves by Nvidia to deepen its reach beyond chips and into the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Earlier this year, Nvidia announced plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI to build advanced AI data centers, followed by a $5 billion investment in Intel to support U.S. chip manufacturing.
The company also recently committed £500 million to UK-based Nscale and participated in a funding round for AI infrastructure provider Crusoe, now valued at over $10 billion. Each deal reflects Nvidia’s long-term strategy to anchor itself at every level of the AI supply chain—from chips and data centers to telecom networks.
Nokia’s Reinvention Continues
For Nokia, the Nvidia deal underscores its latest reinvention after a decade-long struggle to regain prominence. Once a leader in mobile phones, the company was overtaken by Apple and Samsung in the 2010s and later pivoted to network infrastructure and 5G technologies.
Now, by embedding artificial intelligence across its network products and partnering with the world’s leading chipmaker, Nokia is signaling its intent to play a central role in the AI-powered telecom era.
Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Are Changing
Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Are Changing — How to Get Ready
Housing costs in the U.S. are set to stabilize — but not because of the deep price declines or sharp drops in mortgage rates many buyers have been hoping for. Instead, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects a more balanced market ahead, with mortgage rates remaining above 6% and national home prices holding steady through 2027.
A Shift Toward Balance
After years of soaring prices and ultra-low inventory, buyers may finally gain the upper hand. “Staying in the low sixes…is certainly better than the 7’s and 8’s that we saw over the past couple of years,” said MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. “Housing costs are going to be more level over the next several years.”
The association’s forecast projects fixed 30-year mortgage rates will hover between 6.1% and 6.4% through 2026, with only mild price movements expected. A growing supply of homes from both builders and existing homeowners should give buyers more options and moderate price growth.
Forecast snapshot:
• New home sales: +4.6% in 2026
• Existing home sales: +5.1% in 2026
• Mortgage origination volume: +7.6%
• Average 30-year fixed rate: ~6.3%
More Inventory, More Leverage for Buyers
During 2023 and 2024, the story was clear: plenty of would-be buyers, but few homes to purchase. That dynamic is now changing. Builders are ramping up new construction, and more owners are putting homes on the market, giving buyers increased leverage in negotiations.
The MBA expects small home price declines of less than 1% in late 2026 and early 2027, which would mark the first modest reset in years. Regional dynamics remain key: prices are likely to hold up better in the Northeast and Midwest, where construction has lagged behind demand, while Sunbelt markets could see more softening due to higher supply.
Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Back
As the yield curve steepens, more borrowers are exploring adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). More than 10% of home loan applicants in October applied for an ARM, according to MBA data. The average rate on a 5/1 ARM is now 5.55%, compared with 6.37% for a conventional 30-year fixed loan.
These products, which fix rates for five to seven years before adjusting, appeal to buyers who expect to refinance once long-term rates drop. “The market does fine and will move along at six-and-a-half or even seven, but really takes off below six percent,” said BTIG analyst Eric Hagen.
Builders Offering Incentives Again
In many high-supply markets, builders are offering “rate buy-downs” — incentives that permanently lower a buyer’s mortgage rate — to keep sales flowing. For homeowners looking to sell in those areas, that means sharper pricing and creative offers may be required to compete.
Tip for sellers: Track local builder incentives and adjust pricing or offer credits to stay competitive. Today’s buyers are informed, patient, and less willing to overpay than in the pandemic boom years.
The Bottom Line
The housing market of 2025 looks very different from the frenzy of 2021. Mortgage rates will likely stay in the 6% range, but increased supply, stable prices, and creative financing options could finally restore balance. For buyers, the takeaway is clear: the window to reenter the market is slowly reopening.
OpenAI’s Ownership Shake-Up: $500B Valuation, $1T Build-Out
OpenAI’s Ownership Shake-Up: $500B Valuation, $1T Build-Out, and What It Means for Investors
OpenAI just became the world’s most valuable private company at a $500 billion valuation, even as it pursues an unprecedented plan to
fueling that ambition—but they’re also adding complexity to the OpenAI ownership structure, increasing dilution risks and raising fresh
questions about when, and how, investors ultimately get paid.
From Nonprofit Roots to IPO Track: The Planned Conversion
OpenAI is negotiating a conversion to a more conventional for-profit corporate structure—an essential step before any IPO. Today, outside investors share in profits; post-conversion, they would receive equity in the for-profit subsidiary. People familiar with discussions say Microsoft would emerge as the largest single shareholder at roughly 30%, with employees around 30%, and the nonprofit parent near 30%. At today’s valuation, each of those stakes would approach $150 billion.
The nonprofit is expected to nominate directors to the for-profit board, but without special shareholder rights—an arrangement meant to satisfy
attorneys-general in California and Delaware, who can derail a conversion if they believe OpenAI’s charitable purpose is being undermined.
Critics argue the safeguards aren’t enough to keep mission control intact.
Why Dilution Is Inevitable
The company’s appetite for capital is enormous. Executives argue demand for its tools—ChatGPT now boasts about 800 million regular users—far exceeds current supply.
To bridge the gap, OpenAI has struck multi-year, equity-linked deals with chip suppliers. Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in tranches tied to
OpenAI’s power build-out, while AMD has also inked a multibillion-dollar pact. These structures will fund capex, but will also add another layer to the
OpenAI’s ownership structure—and future fundraises will dilute existing holders.
The company has raised about $60 billion to date and expects to tap both equity and debt markets going forward. Much of the ~$1T data center
ambition will rely on debt and future revenues, but equity issuance is unavoidable as headcount grows (now roughly 3,000 employees, quadruple in two years) and stock grants expand to win the AI talent war.
The Cap Table, Post-Conversion (Indicative)
- Microsoft: ~30% after conversion, reflecting more than $13B invested to date and deep commercial ties.
- Employees: ~30%, aligned to retention and recruitment in a hyper-competitive AI labor market.
- OpenAI Nonprofit: ~30%, with board nomination rights (not special shareholder rights).
- Remainder: SoftBank (>$30B committed), Thrive Capital, Khosla Ventures, and holders of equity from Jony Ive’s hardware startup io, acquired earlier this year.
CEO Sam Altman is expected to receive a stake after conversion; there are no active talks on sizing. Elon Musk, who contributed about $45 million in a 2015 donation, would not receive equity and is suing to block the conversion.
“Smaller Slice, Bigger Pie” Logic
Company executives argue that a larger platform—powered by proprietary models, integrated tooling, and a multi-gigawatt compute moat—should more than offset dilution,
making the OpenAI ownership structure debate mostly about timing the exit (IPO) rather than the ultimate size of the pie.
If growth continues to compound, they say, the rational choice is to prioritize investment over near-term profitability.
What the Supplier Deals Really Do
- Nvidia: Up to $100B invested over time, with equity taken at prevailing valuations—supporting OpenAI’s access to cutting-edge GPUs while reinforcing demand for Nvidia’s roadmap.
- AMD: Multibillion-dollar supply pact plus equity-linked incentives that expand capacity and diversify OpenAI’s sourcing.
- Debt & Revenues: A substantial portion of the ~$1T plan will be financed with debt or repaid via future revenues, lessening immediate equity needs but not eliminating dilution over time.
These agreements deepen strategic interdependence and add more variables to the OpenAI ownership structure, as suppliers become stakeholders and the flywheel between
capex and model scale spins faster.
Winners, Watch-Items, and Risks
- Microsoft: A ~30% anchor stake, plus product integration and cloud attach, offers multiple monetization vectors.
- SoftBank, Thrive, Khosla: Exposure to a potential multi-trillion-dollar platform—but with dilution and conversion risk.
- Employees: A large equity pool with significant upside—tempered by issuance overhang as headcount grows.
- Regulatory & Legal: State AGs (CA/DE) could force governance concessions; Musk litigation adds headline risk.
- Execution: $1T of compute implies massive project finance, energy sourcing, and supply-chain coordination—any slippage could affect timelines and valuations.
What It Means for Exit Timing
OpenAI cannot pursue an IPO until after conversion. Private capital remains plentiful given growth and scale, but public listing would clarify
governance, liquidity, and the final contours of the OpenAI ownership structure. Until then, expect more hybrid financing (supplier equity, project debt,
strategic partnerships) that gradually broadens the cap table while the company prioritizes scale over GAAP profitability.
Bottom Line
OpenAI is building one of the most capital-intensive technology franchises ever attempted as a private company. The payoff theory is straightforward:
Capture outsized demand with outsized capacity, then let operating leverage—and ecosystem control—do the rest. For investors the message is to expect more complexity in the OpenAI ownership structure, more dilution along the way, and, if execution holds, a larger pie to share when the exit finally arrives.
Investors Brace for US Inflation Data
Investors Brace for US and UK Inflation Data as Markets Await Direction
After weeks of uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, investors will finally get a clearer picture of how the Trump administration’s trade war has filtered through to consumer prices. The US inflation data for September — delayed since last week — is now set for release on Friday, October 24.
The report, which the Federal Reserve has prioritized despite limited staffing, will provide crucial insight into the health of the world’s largest economy ahead of the October 28–29 FOMC meeting. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to 3.1% from 2.9%, with the core rate holding steady at 3.1%, according to Reuters.
Investors “Flying Blind” as Delays Cloud Outlook
The prolonged delay has left traders “flying blind,” relying on private-sector data and the Fed’s Beige Book for signals on inflation and employment trends. Market participants remain cautious about placing large directional bets until the CPI data arrives.
The release will be pivotal for the Fed’s next move. Futures markets now fully price in a 0.25% rate cut this month and assign a roughly 70% probability to another reduction in December.
The central bank’s most recent projections indicated a year-end inflation rate of 3%, suggesting that price pressures — while moderating — remain above target. A stronger-than-expected CPI print could complicate the Fed’s shift toward supporting the labor market and reignite concerns over tariff-driven price spikes.
UK Inflation in Focus as Bank of England Balances Risks
Across the Atlantic, investors are also bracing for the latest UK inflation data, which is expected to test the Bank of England’s resolve to begin cutting rates. Economists expect headline CPI to rise to 4% in September, up from 3.8% in August — matching the BoE’s own forecasts and marking the fastest pace since late 2023.
The anticipated uptick is driven by higher fuel and airfare costs, along with seasonal increases in clothing prices. Analysts also point to lingering effects from the new VAT rules on private school fees implemented in January.
The IMF recently warned that the UK is on track to post the highest inflation rate in the G7 this year and next. Still, a slowdown in global food prices could bring some relief in the months ahead.
What It Means for Traders
For short-term traders, the combination of delayed U.S. data and sticky UK inflation suggests a period of heightened volatility. A hotter U.S. CPI could boost the dollar and pressure equities, while a softer print may reinforce bets on two additional Fed cuts this year.
In the UK, a stronger CPI could weigh on Gilts and support sterling temporarily — though the broader trajectory still favors lower yields and easing by early 2026. Expect rate-sensitive sectors like housing, banks, and consumer goods to react sharply to this week’s inflation readings.
The bottom line: With the US inflation data delayed and central banks entering a new easing phase, every number matters. The next few days could set the tone for the rest of Q4 — and shape how traders position into year-end.
New Advances in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Treatment
New Advances in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Treatment Offer Hope for Patients
Major pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, and Gilead have unveiled promising trial results that could transform the outlook for patients with triple-negative breast cancer — one of the most aggressive and difficult-to-treat forms of the disease.
The new data, presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) this weekend, show meaningful improvements in both survival and disease-free progression for tens of thousands of patients who have exhausted other treatment options.
A Breakthrough in Hard-to-Treat Cancer
Patients with triple-negative breast cancer represent roughly 10% to 20% of breast cancer diagnoses. The subtype lacks the three key receptors — estrogen, progesterone, and HER2 — that many targeted therapies rely upon, making it exceptionally resistant to standard treatments.
AstraZeneca and Japanese partner Daiichi Sankyo reported that their experimental drug Datroway improved overall survival by 23% and extended the time patients lived without disease progression by 43% compared with chemotherapy.
“These results show an outstanding opportunity to expand treatment to more patients,” said David Fredrickson, AstraZeneca’s Executive Vice President for Oncology. “It’s been an exceptional year — five of our ten positive late-stage trials have been in breast cancer.”
AstraZeneca’s oncology sales climbed 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and Fredrickson said he expects the division to contribute roughly half of the company’s $80 billion revenue target by 2030.
Enhertu and the Push for Earlier Treatment
AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo also announced new success for their widely used breast cancer therapy Enhertu. In earlier-stage patients, one of two studies reported a 3-year disease-free survival rate of 92%, compared with 84% with the most common treatment regimens.
The results could accelerate efforts to expand patient access across health systems. Although Enhertu is approved for late-stage disease, it remains unavailable to many NHS patients in England, despite being offered in Scotland and other countries. Fredrickson urged a “modernization” of NHS evaluation methods to give more weight to end-of-life value and patient quality of life.
Gilead and Lilly Join the Fight
Gilead Sciences also presented encouraging data for its breast cancer therapy Trodelvy, showing a 38% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death compared with chemotherapy. Median survival extended to 9.7 months versus 6.9 months under standard treatment.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Verzenio extended survival by nearly 16% in certain high-risk early breast cancers compared with traditional options, suggesting broader applicability across cancer subtypes.
Implications for Patients and Investors
The surge of data in 2025 marks a turning point in the global race to improve triple-negative breast cancer treatment. For patients, the results could translate into longer survival, earlier interventions, and fewer relapses. For investors, the momentum underscores why oncology remains one of the fastest-growing segments in global pharma portfolios.
With multiple companies reporting life-extending results in just one weekend, oncologists are calling it the most encouraging moment for triple-negative breast cancer patients in a decade.