Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive

As expected, KORS is just beginning to move higher from our May 28 recommendation. There’s a good amount of upside remaining here. Consider selling to close half, though, to secure gains.

As for new trade ideas, consider a long bet on McDonald’s (MCD). The stock has been stuck in a channel between $94 and $100 since late February 2015. If the latest support holds around $96, the stock has a chance of moving higher in the channel. Consider buying to open the MCD August 2015 97.50 call up to $3.65.

Hold all other open positions. Look for new trade ideas shortly.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

The markets are still range-bound with a great deal of fear over rate hikes being priced in. It’s why we’ve asked that you reduce your overall portfolio exposure to the markets until we see some direction.

While we’ve enjoyed some impressive win streaks along the way, we do have some losers to close out, as well as a winner. Two losers we need to close today are the DECK June 80 and 77.50 calls. In the past, we’ve done explosively well with DECK, as you can see in our portfolio.

This time around, DECK wasn’t nice to us.

We continue to hold the MCD put, the AXP call, the QCOM put, the ERIC call, the PG call, and as of today we’re recommending that you sell to close half of the DIA July 182 put for gains. Hold the second half.

As for new trade ideas, consider Michael Kors (KORS).

The stock may have plummeted on same store sales weakness, but this is overkill. RSI, MACD and MFI are literally on the floor. When this happens, we typically see a quick bounce before resumption of downtrend.

Our goal is to buy a call option here, wait for that bounce from insanely oversold conditions and go home.

Consider buying to open the KORS July 2015 47.50 call up to $2.

Look to resume the win streaks we’ve enjoyed.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

Two days into the GMCR July 105 trade, we were up about 35%. While I did hear some of you exited and walked with gains, we were not able to jump out.

The exit alert didn’t hit my inbox until 4:01 pm EST.

The next day, GMCR fell apart. It continues to fall apart today. We have no choice but to exit the position today.

While I’d love to issue a new buy on GMCR now, I can’t. The stock may sit at prior support just above $90. And yes, RSI and MACD are on the floor. But Money Flow has yet to bottom out. Money is still coming out.

Until MFI bottoms out, I’m staying on the sidelines.

On Hold…

After a steady stream of prior wins, we have run into some losses. Recent volatility swings are the reason why I’ve asked that you reduce overall exposure to trades these days until we begin to see firm direction.

At the moment, we hold the DECK June 80 and June 77.50 calls, the MCD June 95 put, the AXP July 80 call, the QCOM June 67.50 put, the ERIC July 11 call, and half of the PG July 80 calls.

New Trade Opportunity

After watching the market for years, I can say that we are insanely overbought. The Dow is at a new high even though underlying economic fundamentals are weak.

Money Flow is now trading sideways because no one knows what’s happening any more. It’s only a matter of time before we see a respectable pullback. I strongly believe the Dow could pull back to its 50-day moving average just under 19,700 shortly.

Consider buying to open the DIA July 182 put up to $4.

Hold all open positions. We’ll jump back into the win streak we’ve enjoyed shortly.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

While holding all other open positions, consider selling to close just half of the GMCR July 105 calls. I recommended a buy on this as recently as Monday as it traded around $3.45. It now trades at $4.60.

Exit half. Hold the second half.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

I’m sure you’re aware of what’s still happening on Wall Street.

On Friday, we were up 260 on the jobs report.

Unfortunately, there’s not much truth to the report. If you want to see real numbers, look at the U6.

Today, we’re down 65, sitting at the upper range of the channel. We’re still stuck between 18,200 highs and 17,600 lows. Unless we see a break above 18,200, which I don’t think is likely, we could dive about 400 points lower, testing prior triple bottom support. It’s all a wait and see.

But even in chaos, there’s opportunity.

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) for example took an earnings hit the other day. But it was sent down too far, too much, too fast. A bounce off oversold MACD and RSI is likely, near-term. I’m looking for at least a $15 northerly move in the stock before long.

That said consider buying to open the GMCR July 2015 105 calls up to $4.

Thank you for your continued support. We couldn’t do this without you.

Until we speak again, take good care… and hold all open positions.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

That was fast.

On Wednesday, we issued a buy on the PG July 2015 80 calls, as they traded around $1.85. Today, the position is up to $2.50 on last trade.

If you’re happy with the gain, consider selling to close half for a quick two-day gain.

Have a great weekend.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

Sixteen years of trading stocks and options…

Sixteen years of 85% success rates.



Sixteen years of nailing perfect calls on housing, the financials, and the greater economy…

Five minutes with my Uncle Mike, and apparently I have no idea what I’m talking about.

There I was, celebrating my father’s 70th birthday, when a thick New Jersey accent whined from across the room: “Mike, Mike! Turn on your damn hearing aids when I’m talking to you… Mike, if you want to talk stocks and the economy, talk to Ian.”

For crying out loud, I thought. No. Not now.

My Uncle Mike is one of those guys.

He thinks he knows everything about everything – especially when it comes to Wall Street.

“Don’t listen to him,” says my Aunt Susan. “He has no idea what he’s talking about with stocks. Why do you think I still work at the age of 68? Mike the genius took our retirement and ran it into the ground.”

I tried to avoid him at the party. But all of a sudden there he was.


“Ian, Ian, it’s so good to see you. It’s me, your Uncle Mike… How are you? Your aunt tells me you play around in the stock market…”



Here we go, I thought.



“You know I called this latest dip in the market and made a small bundle. I grew up during the Depression. I know what the value of money is… I have connections all over Wall Street and can tell you where the market is heading at any time. 



“I can tell you what the market will do this very week!”
 
“Tomorrow, for example, the market will be up 150 points by close. I guarantee it,” he said.



I didn’t have the heart to tell him later that it dropped 300. He lost $10,000 on his call—if he actually invested any money in the first place. 



My Aunt probably lost her marbles when she heard.


Point is – in this market, you can’t just guess. You have to do the research and really get in there. We’ve had great success over the years with our strategy. Recent weeks and months haven’t been as great, but overall our success is tough to discount.

There is no predictability when it comes to the markets these days, unfortunately. We remain uncomfortably range-bound. But there are still a great number of opportunities out there. There are stocks sitting too low.

Procter & Gamble (PG) – for example – sits at a 52-week low of $80.

It’s technically oversold, though, once we look at Money Flow and RSI. Both are telling me a reversal may be in store near-term… All I want to do here is jump in, wait for a slight bounce, and get out.

Consider buying to open the PG July 2015 80 call up to $2.

In this market, we can’t stay in stocks too long. There’s no solid market trend right now.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

I told you this market was nuts.

We’re still stuck in a tight channel bouncing between 17,800 and 18,100. And I’m concerned where the Dow will finally break. As the market wobbles, though, I am still finding oversold opportunities we can sneak into for near-term upside.

Ericsson Telephone (ERIC) – for example – may have just plunged on poor results. But it found historical support levels. When it falls this low, the stock has a tendency to reverse shortly after.

I’m seeing technical over-extensions, too. The downside move – in my opinion – won’t last long. That’s all I’m looking for – a quick reversal to the upside.

We get in. We wait. We get out. That’s it.

I have no interest in waiting long-term for gains in this market anymore. It’s far too volatile. Let’s get in. Let’s get out. Boom… Profits in hand.

Consider buying to open the ERIC July 2015 11 call up to $1.

Have a great week. We’ll talk again soon, my friends.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

As I noted last week, the markets suck at the moment.

It doesn’t matter that we’re up 200 points today. We fell more than 300 just the other day. This is not a picture of market health.

This is a snapshot of the S&P 500 over the last couple of sessions. This is how volatile the market has truly become.

But this isn’t just a one-time occurrence. It’s been like this for months.

Some may even say it’s manipulated.

At the moment, we are still holding all open positions. I see no reason to exit anything at the moment.

As I noted last time, though, we must be cautious moving forward, near-term. Doing so includes tight risk management.

One of our favorite ways to protect for downside is with trailing stop loss orders. Another is to reduce risk per trade. Instead of risking 20% to 30% per trade, halve it.

Know all risks associated with any stocks or bonds bought.

Have ideal entry and exit points for all trades. Never leverage. Know when to cut your losses and move on.

It’s essential that you prepare for the worst-case scenario, as a just in case.

We’re cautious moving forward at the moment, as the markets become challenging.

Forgotten Profits has had a great deal of success in the past. We are looking to resume the win streak that can be found in our portfolios.

For now, for this week, just hold all open positions.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits

The markets are not pricing in reality.

Consumers are scared to death these days. We can see that in retail spending.

Homeownership rates are at 20-year lows. Unemployment isn’t healthy. The labor participation rate is at multi-year lows.

The savings rate is moving higher, as consumers hoard cash.

Even some of the biggest names on Wall Street are worried.

Former PIMOC boss, Mohamed El-Erian, just moved to a big cash position.

“That’s not great, given that it gets eaten up by inflation. But I think most asset prices have been pushed by central banks to very elevated levels,” he says. “There is a massive gap right now between asset prices and fundamentals.”

The news sent shockwaves through the investing community.

When a guy this smart admits that, it’s tough to disagree. There’s a valuation concern, he says. Returns on investments could very well be negative in the near-term.

To him, cash could outperform stocks and bonds as it did in previous disasters. I’m sure you remember the dot-com and subprime disasters fondly.

Could it mean the next disaster is near?

It’s possible.

Stock funds have seen outflows of up to $44 billion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Equity funds have seen outflows of $6.1 billion over the last two weeks. Investors are concerned, as they should be. The markets have been pushed to extremes.

Granted, not all of us can afford to move into cash if it means giving up current income streams. So we can do the next best thing by protecting our money, and positioning well.

One of our favorite ways to protect for downside is with trailing stop loss orders. Another is to reduce risk per trade. Instead of risking 20% to 30% per trade, halve it.

Know all risks associated with any stocks or bonds bought.

Have ideal entry and exit points for all trades. Never leverage. Know when to cut your losses and move on. It’s essential that you prepare for the worst-case scenario, as a just in case.

We’re cautious moving forward at the moment, as the Dow re-challenges overhead resistance.

Forgotten Profits

Over the last few months we’ve closed some great winners. In recent weeks, we’ve taken some hits in a directionless market.

But we continue to hold all open positions… and we’re looking to add a new position today.

American Express (AXP) – for example – is just beginning to bounce off double bottom support near 52-week lows. This is a big name that’s simply down on rough times. It’s not likely to last for much longer. I believe we have an opportunity to steal this at such levels.

Consider buying to open the AXP July 2015 80 call up to $3.

Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits