Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Nvidia China Trade War September 2025
Nvidia China Trade War September 2025: Beijing Blacklists RTX Pro 6000D
China expands restrictions on Nvidia’s AI chips, intensifying trade war dynamics with the United States.
Beijing Targets Nvidia’s Latest AI Chip
The Nvidia China trade war September 2025 reached a new stage after Beijing’s Cyberspace Administration advised local firms not to purchase Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D. The guidance effectively blacklists the chip, unveiled in July for industrial AI applications, and comes after earlier restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 product designed for the Chinese market.
Shares of Nvidia dropped 2.6% following the announcement as analysts warned the company is unlikely to book any Chinese revenue from its new chips this year.
CEO Jensen Huang Responds
Speaking in London, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged the disappointment but stressed patience: “We can only serve a market if a country wants us.” He framed the dispute as part of a larger geopolitical struggle between Washington and Beijing.
Domestic Alternatives Rise
China is accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. chips:
- Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance have increased adoption of Chinese AI chips.
- China Unicom deployed 23,000 domestic processors in a single data center.
- Premier Li Qiang toured a facility showcasing local chips competing with Nvidia’s H20 and A800.
While performance gaps remain, Beijing is betting on scale and state-backed production to challenge Nvidia’s dominance.
Strategic Implications
This latest guidance underscores three key dynamics in the Nvidia China trade war September 2025:
- Pressure on negotiations: Beijing is signaling that semiconductor access will be a bargaining chip in broader trade talks.
- Boost for domestic industry: Restrictions are designed to accelerate adoption of Chinese alternatives, even if less advanced.
- Rejection of “hand-me-downs”: China refuses to rely on downgraded chips that U.S. regulators allow Nvidia to sell.
Investor Outlook
For Nvidia, the stakes are clear: lost near-term revenue, possible reputational damage, and heightened exposure to policy risk. Yet globally, the company remains a leader in AI hardware, with robust demand outside China.
Bottom Line
The Nvidia China trade war September 2025 illustrates how technology, trade, and geopolitics are colliding. Beijing’s decision to blacklist the RTX Pro 6000D is both a signal of support for domestic champions and a direct challenge to Washington’s export controls. For traders and investors, Nvidia’s China exposure now hinges less on product quality than on the trajectory of U.S.-China diplomacy.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut September 2025
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut September 2025: What Traders Need to Know
The Fed’s first cut in nine months reflects labor-market risks, sticky inflation, and shifting policy expectations.
Fed Cuts Rates After Nine-Month Pause
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 4%–4.25%. This Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 marks the first easing move since late 2024. The decision was widely expected but still rattled markets with its implications for growth and inflation.
Powell’s Balancing Act
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the move stemmed from a “shift in the balance of risks” to the Fed’s dual mandate. Inflation has ticked higher recently and remains above target, but signs of labor-market weakness are mounting:
- Unemployment has edged up from record lows.
- Job creation has slowed across multiple sectors.
- Downside risks to employment have grown even as prices remain elevated.
Powell emphasized that the central bank remains committed to price stability but cannot ignore rising risks to employment.
Policy Dissent and Independence Questions
The vote was nearly unanimous. The sole dissenter was Stephen Miran, newly sworn in as a Fed governor the day before the meeting. He favored a half-point cut. Because Miran came directly from the White House, investors questioned whether the Fed could maintain independence. Powell countered, stressing that the institution is “strongly committed” to keeping politics out of policy.
The Dot Plot: More Cuts Ahead
The Fed’s updated dot plot shows members now expect two more rate cuts in 2025, totaling another half-point of easing. Policymakers also project at least one additional cut in 2026. This guidance suggests the central bank has pivoted from “higher for longer” toward a more dovish path.
Market Reaction
Bonds
Yields on the two-year Treasury dropped as investors priced in further cuts, causing parts of the yield curve to steepen.
Stocks
Growth names in technology and consumer discretionary sectors rose on the prospect of cheaper capital, while financials were mixed.
U.S. Dollar
The dollar weakened against major peers, reflecting narrowing interest-rate differentials.
Commodities
Gold and other hedges gained ground as real yields slipped, offering traders new momentum setups.
What Traders Should Watch Next
The Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 underscores a changing environment for day traders and investors. The next signals to monitor include:
- Two-Year Yield: The market’s clearest read on Fed credibility.
- Upcoming Jobs Data: A weak print could accelerate expectations for more easing.
- Inflation Reports: Stickier-than-expected prices could challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt.
Bottom Line
The Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 shows the central bank is now more concerned with employment than inflation. For traders, that means heightened volatility—and opportunity—around every new data release. Stay nimble, keep an eye on bonds and the dollar, and be ready for sharp sector rotations as markets adjust to this new policy path.
TikTok US-China Deal
TikTok US-China Deal: Beijing Confirms Algorithm Use as Trump Extends Deadline
Beijing has confirmed that TikTok’s U.S. app will continue to run on its Chinese-developed algorithm, even as Washington raises national security concerns.
President Donald Trump extended the deadline for a U.S. shutdown, saying he is working on a broader TikTok US-China deal that could reshape the platform’s future.
What Beijing said
China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that TikTok’s recommendation system—the powerful algorithm that drives its user engagement—remains under Chinese export controls.
Officials reiterated that Beijing views the algorithm as a “strategic technology asset,” allowing it to be licensed but not transferred outright.
That means U.S. users will still rely on the Chinese-developed version, raising fresh questions about data security and oversight.
Trump’s extension and promise
President Trump, who has long argued that TikTok poses a national security risk, extended his administration’s deadline for banning the app.
He signaled optimism about a potential agreement with China, describing it as a “comprehensive social media and technology deal” that could prevent disruption for TikTok’s 170 million American users.
The White House framed the extension as a window for negotiations with ByteDance and potential U.S. partners.
Market and political reaction
- Tech stocks: U.S. social media peers like Meta (META) and Snap (SNAP) dipped on the news, as a TikTok ban would have boosted their ad market share.
- China equities: Shares of ByteDance-linked firms and other Chinese internet names rallied on hopes that TikTok avoids a U.S. shutdown.
- Political risk: Lawmakers from both parties remain skeptical, with some pressing for stricter safeguards even if a TikTok US-China deal is reached.
What traders should watch
- 2-Year yield vs. tech beta: If negotiations reduce political risk, high-beta names like SNAP, META, and GOOGL could rally with growth sentiment.
- Event-driven setups: On headlines around deal progress or setbacks, scalp volatility in short-term options or ETF proxies like KWEB (China Internet ETF).
- Defensive hedge: If talks collapse, expect rotation into META/SNAP long trades as ad budgets redirect, while shorting Chinese tech ETFs intraday.
Headline risk is high — traders should anchor VWAP to the minute of policy announcements and fade extreme moves that fail to confirm with volume.
Bottom line
The TikTok US-China deal remains in flux: Beijing insists on algorithm control, while Washington seeks safeguards.
Trump’s extension gives markets temporary relief, but headline-driven volatility will dominate trading.
Social media names and China tech ETFs will offer the cleanest intraday setups as traders react to each twist in negotiations.
Fed Rate Decision and Dot Plot
Why is this meeting different?
The confirmation of Stephen Miran to the Board of Governors on the eve of the meeting has sharpened focus on potential dissents and the balance of views inside the room. Miran is expected to favor a deeper cut than consensus, reflecting the administration’s view that the Fed is “behind the curve.” Meanwhile, some regional presidents could argue for patience given sticky inflation components and a labor market that’s cooling rather than collapsing. Any cluster of dissents will underscore a widening debate about the speed and scale of easing. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
What to watch in the Fed rate decision and dot plot
- Size of the move: Futures-implied odds lean heavily toward 25 bp. A 50 bp surprise would signal the Fed is front-loading cuts in response to deteriorating data momentum.
- The median path (“dots”): Traders will parse how many cuts the median participant pencils in for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. A two-cut median this year, versus three, would be read as cautious easing.
- Macro forecasts: Look for revisions to unemployment and core inflation that justify easing while preserving optionality if inflation proves sticky.
- Powell’s press conference: The tone at Jackson Hole leaned modestly dovish; a similar cadence would keep additional cuts in play for October and December without pre-committing.
Politics at the door—how much gets in the room?
The Fed prides itself on independence, but the optics are tricky. A newly seated governor who also serves in the executive branch (on unpaid leave), direct public calls for “bigger” cuts, and litigation headlines around board composition all raise questions investors don’t normally ask of a central bank. The policy signal still comes from data and consensus-building, yet the communication challenge is harder: Powell must validate independence while acknowledging elevated political scrutiny.
Trading playbook: what matters after the headlines
- First move vs. second move: The initial algo burst often fades. Focus on how 2- and 10-year yields settle 30–60 minutes after the statement and during the Q&A—this is where the policy path, not just the print, gets priced.
- Curve and risk appetite: A cut paired with cautious dots can bull-steepen the curve and favor rate-sensitive sectors; a cut with an aggressive easing path may spark a broader duration grab but also revive “soft landing” equity rotation.
- Dollar reaction: If Powell keeps optionality without endorsing back-to-back cuts, the dollar’s reaction could be muted; a clear nod toward consecutive easing tilts the balance toward a softer USD.
- Volatility bands: For intraday traders, respect prior session ranges into the press conference. Expect whips if dots and rhetoric diverge (e.g., cautious dots but dovish tone).
A disciplined reading of the Fed rate decision and dot plot will also help frame sector rotation: financials react to curve shape; homebuilders to mortgage-rate beta; megacap growth to duration sensitivity; cyclicals to GDP revisions and labor commentary. Tie your setups to the policy path, not just the headline rate cut.
Key scenarios to game out
- Base case (most likely): 25 bp cut, dots imply two cuts for 2025, Powell signals data-dependence with mild bias to ease. Risk assets initially mixed, then followed yields lower; equities prefer quality growth and housing-adjacent plays.
- Dovish surprise: 50 bp or dots signaling a faster path. Duration rallies hard; cyclicals pop if growth forecasts hold; USD softer. Watch for “buy the rumor, sell the news” in high-beta tech.
- Hawkish tilt: 25 bp, but dots show only one more cut, or Powell dampens October odds. Front-end yields reprice higher; financials outperform; long-duration equities wobble.
What your team should prepare before 11:00 a.m. PT
- Levels: Mark pre-FOMC ranges on your core names; define invalidation points for reversal attempts.
- Flows: Track front-end yields (2y), belly (5y), and real yields; confirm equity reaction aligns with rates.
- Playbook: Pre-write entries/exits for each scenario to avoid chasing the first headline.
Bottom line
The cut may be “in the bag,” but the path is not. For traders, the message inside the Fed rate decision and dot plot—and how Powell contextualizes it—will shape the next leg for rates, the dollar, and sector leadership. Keep your bias flexible, your levels clear, and your risk tight as the narrative evolves through the press conference and into the next jobs and inflation prints.