1. Days on Market Are Increasing

Homes are now taking longer to sell than at any time since 2017, according to Realtor.com. In July, the median time on market hit 58 days, a notable increase from the hyperactive post-pandemic years.

While not yet definitive, extended time on market—especially in major metros like Los Angeles, Dallas, Phoenix, San Francisco, and Seattle—could foreshadow a correction. Realtor.com economist Joel Berner cautions that if homes start sitting longer than even pre-pandemic norms, it could signal a pricing shift.

Adding to the uncertainty: an uptick in delistings, as sellers retreat in the face of softening demand. This reluctance to negotiate may limit price drops, frustrating bargain-seeking buyers.

2. New Home Construction Pullback

Builders, who typically have strong foresight into housing demand, are pulling back. June saw single-family housing starts fall to their lowest seasonally adjusted pace in a year, and permits for new builds also dropped sharply.

Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy explains that builders are reacting to a combination of rising costs and weaker pricing power. While many builders have been offering incentives to attract buyers—like rate buydowns or home upgrades—that trend may not last if construction continues slowing.

This could lead to fewer deals in the new home market and worsen the long-term housing shortage, further complicating affordability.

3. Employment and Inflation Could Drive Rates

July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report and downward revisions from prior months sent shockwaves through the bond market. The result: a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, pulling mortgage rates down from 6.75% to 6.58%, per Mortgage News Daily.

Since mortgage rates are closely tied to broader economic indicators, the direction of employment and inflation data will be crucial going forward. Strong numbers could push rates up again, while weak reports may keep easing financing costs.

However, minor rate dips haven’t yet unlocked demand. “Small movements have not unleashed the pent-up demand,” says NAR’s Jessica Lautz. But a sustained decline could be the catalyst.

Conclusion

These three housing market correction indicators—days on market, construction trends, and economic data impacting mortgage rates—are forming a complex picture. Whether these signals mark a short-term pause or the beginning of a broader correction remains to be seen. But for both buyers and sellers, staying informed on these metrics is key to navigating what could be a pivotal phase in the U.S. housing cycle.

Uber’s Modular Strategy vs. Tesla’s Vertical Model

Unlike Tesla’s vertically integrated model, Uber is leveraging outside providers—an approach that may prove more flexible. While Tesla touts its proprietary Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, Uber is looking to scale quickly through strategic partnerships.

This raises questions about Tesla’s long-term competitive edge in self-driving technology, especially since Uber already has 180 million active monthly users averaging 6.1 trips each month—an instant scaling advantage.

TSLA Intraday Trading Outlook

While Tesla’s stock reaction has been muted so far, traders should watch for volatility driven by narrative shifts and sector rotation.

• VWAP and Anchored VWAP setups can identify breakdown zones
• First-hour range failures can lead to high-probability mean-reversion shorts
• Use a TSLA/UBER intraday relative strength chart to spot divergence-based trades

Pro Tip: Anchor VWAP to 10:00 AM ET to track institutional positioning. Tesla tends to fade early overreactions when sentiment shifts are narrative-based rather than earnings-driven.

Market Implications of the Autonomous Race

Uber’s growth in autonomy isn’t a direct threat to Tesla’s hardware yet—but it’s a challenge to Tesla’s market perception and valuation multiple, both of which are tied to its leadership in the self-driving space.

Traders should monitor other mobility tech names like Aurora Innovation (AUR), Mobileye (MBLY), and Alphabet’s Waymo for sympathy momentum or sector rotation plays.

Final Thought: Tesla Isn’t Alone Anymore

Uber’s expanding footprint in autonomous vehicles adds real pressure to Tesla’s self-driving story. For traders, this translates to new volatility, new correlations, and new technical setups worth watching closely.

Shares rose 3.6% intraday in New York, marking a rare gain in a year where Pfizer has underperformed broader markets.

Pfizer’s Margin-First Playbook

Pfizer is no longer leaning on blockbuster launches to drive value. Instead, it’s focused on margin expansion through strategic partnerships, operational efficiency, and cost control.

According to Daniel Barasa of Gabelli Funds:

“We expect Pfizer will continue to be a margin story, as opposed to a top-line driven story for the next few years.”

The $43 billion acquisition of Seagen in 2023 added to its drug pipeline, but revenue from those therapies may take years to mature.

Trump’s Push for Lower Prices: Risk or Opportunity?

Pfizer was one of 17 pharmaceutical companies that received a July 31 letter from President Trump, demanding “binding commitments” to lower drug prices or face regulatory consequences.

In response, Pfizer announced a partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb to sell a popular blood-thinner directly to consumers at a 40% discount starting in September. This aligns with Trump’s priority of direct-to-consumer access and price transparency.

However, TD Cowen cautioned that it’s unclear whether this model is a trend or a one-time strategy meant to placate regulators.

Intraday Trading: PFE as a Tactical Play

Pfizer’s intraday behavior makes it attractive for event-driven traders:

• High institutional volume and tight spreads
• Responsive to political news, especially on drug pricing and regulation
• Frequent morning volatility followed by midday compression

Pro Tip: Use a VWAP reversion strategy around guidance updates or D.C. headlines. Pfizer typically reacts within the first 90 minutes, offering scalping and swing trade setups.

Investor Takeaways

• Adjusted EPS guidance rose despite political headwinds
• Pipeline from Seagen offers long-term growth but won’t help short-term metrics
• Dividend yield remains attractive for income-focused investors
• Valuation multiples could compress further if DTC models impact margins

Final Thought: Cautious Optimism, Tactical Opportunity

Pfizer may be down on the year, but its revised guidance, leaner operating model, and response to policy pressure suggest that it’s playing offense where many competitors are playing defense.

Management now expects at least $33 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending June 2026—down from the $40 billion target it floated in February. Analysts remain skeptical. Consensus (FactSet) is only $30.5 billion, with Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh forecasting $31B, citing “caution around ramps with competition increasing.”

Margin Pressures Mount Despite Revenue Growth

While demand for AI-optimized servers remains high, analysts warn that **price competition** and **gross margin compression** could limit upside. Rakesh noted Super Micro’s main rivals—including Dell Technologies (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE)—are aggressively cutting prices to capture market share.

J.P. Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee wrote that the combination of falling gross margins and bullish revenue expectations is creating a disconnect: “The underperformance is extending to gross margins as well.”

Market Reaction: Expectations Too High?

Despite beating consensus revenue targets, the stock cratered 17%. Analysts say this move reflects “elevated expectations vs. a significant shift in institutional investor opinions.”

Wedbush’s Matt Bryson noted that while bulls may focus on large AI customer growth potential, bears are watching for “underwhelming revenue guidance and a dearth of gross margin improvement.”

Intraday Trading Setup: SMCI in Play

For traders, SMCI now presents a high-beta opportunity with well-defined risk-reward scenarios:

• Watch for VWAP rejection in the first hour if buyers attempt to fade the gap down
• Opening Range Breakdown setups may trigger further downside if key support fails
• Support zones near the $740–$760 range could become decision points

Pro Tip: Anchor VWAP to the earnings call timestamp and monitor for price/volume divergence. High options volume suggests elevated volatility is likely to persist.

Competitive Landscape: NVIDIA’s Pie Is Getting Sliced

Super Micro has benefited from demand tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, but it’s not alone. With Dell, HPE, and smaller rivals targeting the same customer base, SMCI’s ability to maintain both share and margins is under pressure.

CEO Charles Liang touted the company’s “end-to-end data-center software solution” as a competitive edge—but analysts remain cautious until it materially improves profitability.

Final Thought: Reality Check for the AI Infrastructure Trade

Super Micro’s reset doesn’t end the AI story—it just reminds investors that even darlings of emerging tech must defend their margins and manage competitive risks. For now, SMCI looks like a stock that needs to earn its multiple all over again.

Friday Deadline: New U.S. Tariffs Set to Hit

Trump signed an executive order imposing a 15% tariff on most EU imports, effective Friday. The EU, facing the prospect of a major trade war, opted to freeze its retaliatory measures for now, but tensions remain high—especially in sectors like German autos, French wine, and European steel.

What’s at Stake for the Markets?

1. Auto Industry in the Crosshairs

The fate of European car exports to the U.S. is still unclear. Germany, home to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, is particularly vulnerable. Any delay or denial of tariff exemptions could trigger weakness in U.S.-listed ADRs and global auto stocks.

2. Wine, Spirits, and Luxury Goods

The EU is lobbying to exempt wine and spirits from the 15% tariff, with France and Italy leading the charge. Failure to secure carve-outs could pressure luxury and consumer discretionary sectors.

3. Steel and Aluminum Quotas

The EU seeks tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for steel and aluminum—lower tariffs for volumes within historical norms. The U.S. has yet to sign off, leaving uncertainty for manufacturers.

4. Chemical and Medical Device Exemptions

The EU also wants exclusions for chemicals and medical devices. Ongoing negotiations will determine their inclusion in the exemption list.

Geopolitical Undercurrents

This trade détente follows Trump’s recent ultimatum to Russia regarding Ukraine. The intersection of trade diplomacy and geopolitical strategy reflects Trump’s broader effort to use economic leverage as a negotiating tool across multiple fronts.

European leaders remain concerned about U.S. security guarantees and are cautious about ceding too much ground in trade talks that could set lasting precedents.

Market Outlook: Risk-On or Risk-Off?

• Short-Term: Volatility in European export sectors is likely until more clarity emerges.
• Medium-Term: Sanctions on Russia or further policy shifts could spark risk-off moves and safe haven flows.
• Long-Term: A deglobalization trend may take root, reshaping supply chains and pressuring multinational profitability.

Final Thought: A Trade Deal Without Teeth?

Despite the truce, many critical details are unsettled. The EU’s retaliatory tariffs remain “in the freezer”—not abandoned. For traders and investors, this means more headline risk, more volatility, and more reliance on fast-moving policy updates.

TraderInsight Pro Tip: Monitor U.S. and EU trade announcements, shipping indices, and FX pairs like the EUR/USD for signs of pressure. Tariff news has become a key market-moving catalyst in 2025.