The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Lowe’s Housing Rebound
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison Prepares for Housing Rebound
Overview
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison is positioning the company to seize growth when U.S. housing demand rebounds. Despite today’s sluggish home improvement market, Ellison is focused on long-term fundamentals, Pro market expansion, and technology adoption.
Strategic Foundations
- Retail fundamentals: Supply chain modernization, IT upgrades, and stronger digital/brick-and-mortar integration.
- Capital allocation: Investing in operations, sustaining dividend aristocrat status, and share buybacks.
- Appliance delivery edge: Lowe’s can deliver/install appliances in two days to nearly every U.S. ZIP Code, boosting growth in big/bulky categories.
Housing Rebound Playbook
Ellison sees two scenarios driving future demand:
- Lock-in effect: Homeowners with low mortgage rates and high equity eventually invest in renovations, regardless of interest rates.
- Rate-driven inflection: A psychological shift could occur if mortgage rates fall below ~6%, spurring turnover and spending.
Lowe’s has prepared for both—serving DIY customers who stay put and gearing up for Pro demand when new construction accelerates.
Pivot Toward the Pro Market
Since 2018, Lowe’s has raised Pro revenue share from 19% to about 30%. The acquisitions of Artisan Design Group and Foundation Building Materials expand exposure to single- and multi-family construction, opening a $250 billion addressable market.
Tariffs & Sourcing Strategy
- ~60% of goods sourced from the U.S., up sharply in recent years.
- 20% from China, 10% from Mexico, and 10% from other global markets.
- Diversification reduces risk and helps mitigate cost pressures from tariffs.
Innovation & AI Tools
Lowe’s has partnered with Palantir, Nvidia, and OpenAI to create Mylow, an AI assistant embedded in Lowe’s.com and its app. The tool simplifies complex projects for customers and helps train associates quickly, reducing friction in home improvement decision-making.
Ellison also highlighted new demographic strategies, including an influencer network led by Mr. Beast, aimed at engaging younger homeowners.
Bottom Line
With supply chain upgrades, Pro expansion, sourcing diversification, and AI-powered tools, Lowe’s is positioned to capture growth once the housing cycle rebounds. Ellison’s long-term approach reflects confidence that demographic demand and eventual rate relief will spark a new era of home improvement spending.
Broadcom AI Order
Broadcom Beats, Lands a New AI Customer — What It Means for Traders
At a Glance
| Fiscal Q3 Revenue | $15.95B (beat) |
|---|---|
| Adj. EPS | $1.69 (beat) |
| Q4 Revenue Guide | $17.4B (above consensus) |
| AI Revenue Trend | +63% YoY to ~$5.2B in Q3; mgmt sees further Q4 growth |
| Stock Action | Closed +1.2% at $306.10; moved higher after hours on the customer news |
Why the Broadcom AI order matters
- Scale & visibility: Management cited an order exceeding $10B, improving fiscal-2026 AI revenue visibility and underscoring hyperscaler demand for custom accelerators.
- Mix shift tailwind: AI accelerators and networking carry premium economics versus legacy segments, supporting margins and cash flow.
- Diversification vs. GPUs: Custom ASICs provide an alternative path to AI compute at scale, broadening procurement options for mega-cap customers.
Key Drivers of the Beat
- AI accelerators & networking led growth, while some non-AI pockets remained softer.
- VMware contribution added scale to consolidated results as integration progressed.
- Guidance above consensus reinforced the conviction that AI demand is durable into year-end.
Note: The identity of the new customer was not disclosed on the call. Some media report it may be OpenAI; Broadcom has not confirmed this.
What to Watch Next
- Order timing: If management details shipment milestones tied to the Broadcom AI order, watch for calendar-2026 revenue phasing.
- Supply chain: Any commentary on packaging and networking components could influence lead-time assumptions.
- Competitive signals: Monitor hyperscaler commentary for custom-chip adoption alongside GPU roadmaps.
Positioning in the AI Stack
Broadcom’s expertise in custom accelerators, Ethernet switching (Tomahawk/Jericho families), and connectivity positions it at the heart of data-center build-outs. If execution remains steady, the Broadcom AI order should amplify operating leverage and cash generation.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat, stronger guide, and a marquee customer win create a constructive backdrop. For traders, the Broadcom AI order is the headline to trade against while watching for confirmation in orders, lead times, and hyperscaler commentary.
CDC Turmoil And Vaccine Stocks
CDC Shake-Up Puts Vaccine Trades in Play
Key takeaways
- Policy uncertainty = pricing uncertainty. Demand assumptions tied to CDC/ACIP guidance are now variable, elevating headline risk and intraday volatility.
- Internal dissent escalated after the firing of CDC Director Susan Monarez, and more than 1,000 HHS employees urged the HHS Secretary to resign—fuel for news-driven moves. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
- Jim O’Neill has been installed as acting CDC director, another signal of policy regime change to monitor for trading catalysts. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
- The September 18–19 ACIP meeting is the next material event on the calendar for Covid/flu/hepatitis/measles guidance. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
- Expect dispersion: diversified pharma (MRK, JNJ, SNY, GSK) may trade differently than booster-dependent names (MRNA, NVAX, BNTX).
- Headline risk will keep CDC turmoil and vaccine stocks volatile into (and out of) the ACIP session window.
What happened (and why markets care)
At a Senate Finance Committee hearing on September 4, 2025, lawmakers pressed HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over dismissing CDC Director Susan Monarez and reshaping vaccine policy bodies; he defended the moves as necessary reforms. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
Separately, a coalition of medical groups and more than 1,000 current and former HHS employees called for his resignation amid concerns about replacing CDC’s vaccine advisory panel and politicizing guidance. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
Earlier this summer, HHS removed the sitting members of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and moved ahead with a new slate; upcoming meetings will test how recommendations may change. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
Why CDC turmoil and vaccine stocks matter right now
Demand elasticity
ACIP recommendations are embedded in sales models and procurement cycles. Tweaks to booster schedules or pediatric guidance can reset revenue trajectories—instantly repriced by the market.
Procurement & mix
Federal/state buying shifts can favor broad vaccine portfolios (flu, RSV, pediatric combos) over single-product Covid players—driving relative performance spreads.
Headline gamma
Policy tapes trigger sharp moves around hearings, personnel shifts, and meeting agendas. Treat these like earnings-style catalysts with pre-mapped levels and tight risk.
Leadership & path dependency
With Jim O’Neill as acting CDC director, the policy path skews toward further changes—an ongoing source of event risk for traders to monetize or hedge. :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
Trading playbook
Day-trade setups
- News-to-level: On breaking headlines (hearings, leadership changes, agenda drops), trade the initial impulse back to your levels (prior day H/L, VWAP, anchored VWAP, opening range).
- IV timing: For CDC turmoil and vaccine stocks, implied volatility typically lifts into ACIP; consider long gamma or call/put calendars into the meeting and flip to premium-selling after the decision window (only if realized vol underperforms).
- Pairs & dispersion: Long diversified portfolios (MRK/JNJ/SNY/GSK) vs. short booster-concentrated names (MRNA/NVAX/BNTX) when guidance risk is front-loaded.
Swing ideas & risk
- Calendar-based swings: Scale into positions 5–10 trading days before ACIP, scale out in tranches across the meeting window and the first trading day after.
- Position sizing: Keep gross exposure modest; widen stops only if you’re long convexity via options.
- Hedge overlays: If long single-name vaccine exposure, consider index or sector hedges (XLV/IBB) around catalyst dates.
Watchlist
| Ticker | Profile | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA | Covid-heavy exposure | IV crush/expansion around ACIP; news-driven re-ratings |
| NVAX | High beta, catalyst-sensitive | Liquidity whipsaws; gap-and-go vs. fade at VWAP |
| BNTX | Partnered Covid exposure | ADR liquidity & Europe headlines |
| PFE | Diversified; Covid booster tail | Mix shift vs. non-vax franchises |
| SNY / GSK | Broader vaccine suites | Relative strength on portfolio breadth |
| JNJ / MRK | Big-pharma defensives | Spread longs vs. booster-centric names |
Not investment advice. Educational use only.
Catalyst calendar
Sept 18–19, 2025: CDC ACIP public meeting (virtual). Agenda topics include Covid-19, hepatitis B, measles, and more—expect guidance headlines during and shortly after sessions. :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
Bottom line
Policy shifts have turned public health into a tradable macro-micro hybrid. Until guidance stabilizes, treat the group as event-driven: fade the first move only at pre-mapped levels, or embrace convexity with well-timed options. In short: trade CDC turmoil and vaccine stocks with a calendar, a plan, and disciplined risk.
Sources: Senate scrutiny of RFK Jr.’s CDC overhaul and the Monarez firing; employee resignation calls; acting CDC director appointment; ACIP meeting schedule. :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}
Figma Earnings Miss
Figma earnings miss: What traders need to know now
Figma’s first report as a public company came in hot on revenue growth—but cool on expectations—sending shares sharply lower after hours.
Below is the fast read for day-traders and swing-traders, followed by deeper context and scenarios.
Key numbers at a glance
- Q2 revenue: $249.6M (+41% y/y) vs. ~$250M consensus (slight miss)
- Net income: $846K (essentially breakeven) vs. Street expecting +$0.09 EPS
- Q3 guide (revenue): $263M–$265M (roughly in-line to modestly above)
- FY25 guide (revenue): $1.021B–$1.025B (in-line)
- After-hours move: ~-10% on the release
- Valuation: ~200× ’25E EPS vs. Adobe ~17× (premium multiple)
Coverage snapshot: 11 analysts tracked by FactSet—4 Buy, 7 Hold (lukewarm overall).
Why the stock got hit
- Expectations > results: Revenue grew fast but landed just shy of consensus; FY/Q3 outlook was fine on paper yet not the “beat-and-raise” that a premium multiple often demands.
- Multiple risk: At ~200× earnings vs. mature peers in the teens, any wobble gets punished.
- AI debate: Some fear AI could compress workflows and seats; bulls counter that new AI features (e.g., prototyping tools) expand the platform. Street is split.
- Competition & disruption: Incumbents and newer entrants alike continue to press, adding uncertainty to share gains and pricing power.
Actionable angles (1-minute read)
| Trader | Setups & Triggers | Risk Framing |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Trader | Gap-down open: watch premarket low and VWAP. Short the fail if rallies reject VWAP with declining tape; fade the flush only on capitulation + reclaimed VWAP with rising volume. |
Size down early; use HOD/LOD and VWAP as hard invalidation. Avoid mid-range churn between VWAP and first 15-minute extremes. |
| Swing | Look for a higher low above the IPO-anchor or 10-DMA before initiating long risk. Alternatively, wait for a base-and-break through the first post-earnings balance high. |
Place stops under the most recent swing low; don’t average down into a sliding multiple-compression tape. |
Pro tip: Anchor VWAP to the IPO date (Jul 31) to gauge where longer-term participants are “in.”
What happened & why it mattered
The Figma earnings miss was modest on the top line, but when a name carries a venture-grade multiple in public markets, “good” isn’t enough—investors want unmistakable upside vs. consensus and a confident path to operating leverage.
Guidance that’s merely in-line can still feel like a downgrade when expectations are stretched.
Beyond the print, sentiment was already cooling across some high-profile 2025 debuts that sprinted out of the gate before retracing.
Figma still trades well above its IPO price despite volatility. Still, performance clusters in this cohort have grown more selective as the market reprices AI hopes, competitive intensity, and the cost of capital.
Bull vs. bear case (condensed)
Bullish tells
- Durable >30% revenue growth off a large base.
- Platform expansion (design → collaboration → prototyping) with AI features that could increase adoption.
- Brand strength in product/design orgs; long runway for enterprise seat growth.
Bearish tells
- Premium multiple leaves little room for execution hiccups.
- Competitive overlap with large platforms and emergent AI-native tools.
- Macro/IT budgets and AI efficiency gains may slow seat expansion or pricing power.
Scenarios to plan for
- Trend continuation lower: Early VWAP rejection with lower highs → favor follow-through shorts into measured supports; cover into exhaustion wicks.
- Mean-reversion bounce: Capitulation flush + reclaim of VWAP/first resistance → probe longs with tight stops; partials at prior intraday supply.
- Range day: Respect balance highs/lows; fade edges only with confirmation (failed break + volume dry-up).
Bottom line
After the Figma earnings miss, price will likely trade in a tug-of-war between premium expectations and solid—yet not spectacular—execution.
In our playbook, that means letting VWAP do the talking, trading the reaction (not the headline), and sizing risk to the reality that multiple compression moves fast.