The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Dow Marks Biggest Comeback Since April
Dow Marks Biggest Comeback Since April as China Tensions Roil Markets
What Sparked the Whipsaw
- Morning hit: Beijing sanctioned several U.S. shipping subsidiaries, pressuring cyclicals and global transport names.
- Midday headline: President Trump posted about potential restrictions on Chinese cooking oil exports and labeled China’s soybean stance “economically hostile,” reigniting risk-off flows.
- Buyers step in: Value sectors and defensives led a sharp afternoon recovery; tech lagged into the close.
Market Internals & Psychology
The Dow’s swing from -1.3% to green reflects robust dip demand at recent support. The S&P’s late fade underscores lingering headline risk and an embedded geopolitical risk premium. As 22V Research’s Dennis DeBusschere put it, “de-escalation should be the base case longer term,” but the China overhang won’t vanish without concrete talks on the calendar.
Trader’s Take — Levels & Setups
- S&P 500 (cash): Support 5,560 (intraday low). Reclaim/hold above 5,640 = potential continuation toward 5,675–5,690. Lose 5,560 and the door opens to 5,520.
- Dow: Momentum support 39,850. Above that, upside magnets 40,300–40,450. Failure = retest 39,500.
- Nasdaq 100: Watch 18,900 as pivot; below favors growth de-risking toward 18,650.
- VIX: Closed sub-16 but sensitive to tape bombs; consider tactical long vol on pops in tariff rhetoric.
Sector Rotation — Who Led the Rebound?
- Leaders: Financials, Industrials, Energy, Staples (defensive bid + value rotation).
- Laggards: Mega-cap Tech & Semis on geopolitical risk and multiple compression worries.
- Wildcard: Ag/food chain (soybeans, processors, edible oils) on trade headlines; watch for outsized single-name moves.
What to Watch Next
- De-escalation signals: Any scheduling of bilateral talks = risk-on impulse; lack thereof keeps a premium on defensives.
- Earnings tape: Money-center banks’ beats can stabilize breadth if geopolitics quiets.
- Rates: 10-year yield easing supports equities; a push back above 4% could cap rallies.
Bottom Line
The Dow’s outsized reversal shows buyers remain active, but the S&P’s late drift lower says uncertainty still rules the tape. Expect choppy ranges and headline-driven opportunities: trade smaller, respect levels, and let VWAP guide bias until China-related risk clarifies.
Tesla AI stock 2025?
Why Tesla Stock Is a Must-Own in the Age of AI
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged 5.4% Monday to close at $435.90, rebounding from Friday’s sharp selloff. The move was fueled by a new bullish call from Melius Research, which initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $520 price target. Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla is positioned to lead the next wave of industrial disruption driven by artificial intelligence.
AI as the Next Catalyst
Wertheimer called Tesla a “must-own” stock, arguing that AI-driven automation will “wreck multi-trillion dollar industries, starting with auto.” Tesla’s end-to-end integration of software, hardware, and data gives it a competitive edge that traditional automakers cannot replicate. From self-driving algorithms to humanoid robotics, Tesla’s “AI flywheel” continues to accelerate.
“Tesla and the Musk ecosystem combine technology, design, and manufacturing in a way no one else can,” Wertheimer wrote. The company is effectively a hybrid of AI lab, EV manufacturer, and robotics company—a rare combination that could redefine its valuation beyond traditional auto metrics.
Market Context
The bullish upgrade arrives amid broader macro turbulence. President Trump reassured markets that his administration’s trade standoff with China will not derail the economy. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3% on Monday, helping lift risk sentiment in growth sectors.
Tesla remains a bellwether for the EV and AI convergence trade. Its integration of large-scale computing, energy storage, and autonomy data provides exposure to three high-growth verticals simultaneously: transportation, power, and machine learning.
Trader’s Take
- Momentum Watch: After rebounding from $410 support, Tesla is back above its 20-day moving average. Intraday traders should watch $440 for continuation and $426 for downside confirmation.
- Short-Term Setup: Above $440, price targets align with $455 and $470. Failure to hold $426 could trigger a retracement toward $410.
- Swing Trade View: As long as Tesla holds above $410, the bias remains bullish toward $520–$540 in Q4, especially if the AI and robotaxi narrative gains traction.
- Sector Read-Through: Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Mobileye (MBLY) often move in sympathy. Traders can monitor correlation strength for rotational plays within the AI-auto ecosystem.
Why It Matters
Tesla’s AI positioning transcends EV manufacturing — it’s about data ownership and compute capacity. With full self-driving capability nearing commercial viability and the Optimus robot expected to enter pilot deployment, Tesla’s core multiple may shift toward software-style valuation metrics in the coming year.
Nearly 47% of analysts now rate Tesla a Buy, and the stock’s ability to rally despite macro pressure reinforces its leadership in both AI and EV narratives.
Bottom Line
Tesla is trading less like an automaker and more like a tech platform. The latest upgrade underscores the idea that Musk’s AI ecosystem could become the defining growth story of 2025.
For traders, pullbacks toward $420–$425 are likely to attract dip buyers targeting a re-test of $450+ as momentum builds.
Levi Strauss earnings 2025
Levi Strauss Raises Prices and Profits — But the Stock Sells Off
Levi Strauss (NYSE: LEVI) delivered a clean earnings beat for the third quarter — stronger profit margins, solid revenue growth, and an upgraded outlook. Yet shares fell sharply in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious guidance and trader rotation out of retail ahead of the holiday quarter.
Quarter Highlights
- Adjusted EPS: $0.34 vs $0.31 expected
- Revenue: $1.54B vs $1.50B expected
- Gross Margin: 61.7% (up 110 bps YoY)
- Full-Year EPS Outlook: $1.27–$1.32 (raised from $1.25–$1.30)
- Full-Year Revenue Growth: +3%, up from prior 1–2%
CEO Michelle Gass said Levi’s targeted price increases have not hurt demand — a critical point for investors worried about elasticity amid consumer fatigue. “We’ve been surgical and thoughtful,” Gass told CNBC, adding that strong brand equity allows the company to hold margins even under tariff pressure.
Margins and Strategy
Levi’s gross margin expansion came from higher direct-to-consumer sales, less discounting, and premium price positioning.
Online and owned-store sales rose 11%, while women’s apparel grew 9%. The company continues to diversify beyond denim — with tops now making up nearly 40% of total sales.
Tariffs remain a wildcard: Levi’s assumes U.S. import duties at 30% and global duties at 20% through year-end. The company has restored its pre-tariff margin outlook but remains “conservative” about Q4 spending trends.
Trader’s Take
- Post-Earnings Reaction: Despite the beat, LEVI sold off 6% after hours — a likely “sell-the-news” event after a 42% year-to-date gain.
- Technical Levels: Watch $21.40 support (prior breakout level). Breakdown could test $19.80–$20.00.
A recovery through $22.75 could reestablish upside momentum toward $24.50. - Intraday Bias: Expect volatile opens driven by retail ETF rotation (XRT). Watch pre-market VWAP behavior — if buyers defend $21, scalpers can lean long with tight stops.
- Swing Traders: Favor entries near prior support with risk defined under $19.80. A close above $23 confirms continuation into the holiday retail cycle.
Sector Implications
Levi’s results echo broader consumer trends: resilient demand at higher price points and margin expansion through direct sales. Competitors such as Lululemon (LULU), Ralph Lauren (RL), and Gap (GPS) may benefit from similar pricing dynamics if consumer discretionary spending holds up through Q4.
However, traders should note: if Levi’s weakness persists despite strong fundamentals, it may signal early exhaustion in the retail rally.
Bottom Line
Levi Strauss just proved it can raise prices without losing customers — a rare feat in 2025’s tariff-driven retail environment.
The fundamentals look solid, but the chart is flashing caution. For traders, the next few sessions will reveal whether this is a simple earnings shakeout — or the start of sector-wide profit taking.