The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Trade Management: Essential Tips for Disciplined Day Trading
November 5, 2024
Calculating 2 Standard Deviations of the Mean: A Quick Guide
Using Statistics to Trade Stocks
In my last article, I discussed the role of variability, variance, and standard deviation for traders. I received some questions about the actual calculations required, so this post is my attempt to show you what goes on behind the curtain.
In statistics and finance, calculating 2 standard deviations of the mean helps identify data points that deviate significantly from the average. This measure is especially useful in fields like trading, where understanding volatility can inform investment decisions. Here’s how to calculate it:
Step 1: Calculate the Mean
The mean is simply the average of a set of numbers. To find it, add up all the values in your data set and divide by the total number of values.
Example:
Suppose we have daily price returns: 4, 6, 7, 8, and 10.
- Mean = (4 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 10) / 5 = 35 / 5 = 7
Step 2: Find Each Value’s Deviation from the Mean
Next, subtract the mean from each data point to find the deviation of each value from the mean.
Example:
- Deviations from the mean (7):
- (4 – 7) = -3
- (6 – 7) = -1
- (7 – 7) = 0
- (8 – 7) = 1
- (10 – 7) = 3
Step 3: Square Each Deviation
Square each deviation to avoid negative values canceling out positive ones.
Example:
- Squared deviations:
- (-3)^2 = 9
- (-1)^2 = 1
- (0)^2 = 0
- (1)^2 = 1
- (3)^2 = 9
Step 4: Calculate the Variance
The variance is the average of these squared deviations. Sum up the squared deviations and divide by the number of values (for population standard deviation) or by one less than the number of values (for sample standard deviation).
Example (assuming sample standard deviation):
- Variance = (9 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 9) / (5 – 1) = 20 / 4 = 5
Step 5: Calculate the Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
Example:
- Standard Deviation = √5 ≈ 2.24
Step 6: Multiply by 2 for 2 Standard Deviations
To find 2 standard deviations, multiply the standard deviation by 2.
Example:
- 2 Standard Deviations = 2.24 * 2 = 4.48
Interpreting the Result
When working with data following a normal distribution, about 95% of values will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. This measurement helps identify values that significantly deviate from the average and can signal unusual or volatile conditions.
In trading, this metric is frequently applied to determine if a price movement is substantial enough to indicate a potential reversal or trend continuation, helping traders make more informed decisions based on statistical probability.
If you’re interested in using statistical software to analyze big datasets, Julie and I have used SPSS since we were undergrads. You can find it here https://www.ibm.com/spss.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz
The Magnificent 7 – Earn a Living While Wall Street is Out To Lunch
The “Magnificent 7” stocks—Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), and NVIDIA (NVDA)—dominate the U.S. stock market, not only in terms of market cap but also in daily trading volume and volatility. A Magnificent 7 trading strategy presents unique opportunities for day traders during the midday trading session, often viewed as a “quiet” period from 11:30 AM to 2:00 PM ET. The Magnificent 7 are ideal candidates for trading during this time.
1. Continued Liquidity and Tight Spreads During Midday
While midday trading is generally characterized by a market volume drop, the Magnificent 7 stocks maintain high activity levels even during these quieter hours. Their high liquidity means they continue to offer narrow bid-ask spreads, which is crucial for day traders looking to capture small price movements without facing wide spreads or slippage. This liquidity enables quick entries and exits, even when the rest of the market slows down.
2. Midday Volatility Magnificent 7 Trading Strategy
The Magnificent 7 stocks are some of the most volatile in the market, providing price action suitable for intraday trading. Even during midday, when many stocks exhibit low volatility, these stocks often show price fluctuations driven by investor sentiment, institutional adjustments, or sector-specific developments.
- Patterns and Trends: These stocks frequently exhibit recognizable patterns, such as consolidations or mild reversals, between 11:30 AM and 2:00 PM ET. This midday “lull” can lead to reliable setups like breakout opportunities and range-bound trades as traders anticipate a directional move in the afternoon.
- Responsive to Technical Indicators: Midday trading for these stocks often responds well to technical indicators like moving averages, VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), and Bollinger Bands, providing day traders with actionable signals.
3. Reaction to News and Market Sentiment Shifts
The Magnificent 7 stocks often react to the news, which doesn’t always come only at the open or close. Intraday news, analyst updates, or sector-wide developments in tech, consumer behavior, or global trends can trigger midday price movements, particularly in these high-profile stocks. This news sensitivity makes the Magnificent 7 a good choice for day traders looking to capture moves spurred by mid-session news catalysts.
- Market Sentiment Drivers: Because these stocks are bellwethers for the tech and consumer sectors, market sentiment shifts or changes in the direction of index futures can cause quick price adjustments. Traders can capitalize on this sentiment-driven movement by watching news feeds and economic calendars for events scheduled around midday.
4. Institutional Positioning and Sector Rotations
Large institutions frequently adjust or rebalance portfolios around midday, and the Magnificent 7 stocks are often focal points for these moves. Sector rotations, especially in tech-heavy indexes like the NASDAQ 100, can create price swings in these stocks as funds either increase or reduce exposure to tech and growth stocks.
- Institutional Activity: Midday adjustments by institutional players add depth to trading volume, causing price shifts that day traders can exploit. Identifying and trading alongside institutional buying or selling waves can be a highly effective strategy, particularly in highly liquid stocks like the Magnificent 7.
- Sector Sensitivity: When tech, consumer discretionary, or other relevant sectors see intraday moves, the Magnificent 7 are typically at the center of the action. Day traders can take advantage of the mid-session sector shifts by monitoring leading tech and consumer trends to identify potential trade opportunities.
5. Smooth Entry and Exit Points with Options Liquidity
The Magnificent 7 stocks offer additional flexibility for day traders using options due to their liquid options markets. Even during midday, these stocks have highly active options chains with numerous strike prices and expiration dates, allowing traders to deploy strategies like quick scalps or hedged positions.
- Weekly and Daily Expirations: With weekly and even daily expirations available, traders can access short-term options contracts to capture midday moves without committing significant capital outlays.
- Volatility Premiums: Options on these stocks often carry a volatility premium, allowing traders to take advantage of quick intraday swings using options for added leverage and limited downside risk.
6. Predictable Afternoon Transition
Trading the Magnificent 7 during midday often sets the stage for an afternoon move. Between 11:30 AM and 2:00 PM ET, these stocks can establish baselines or consolidation patterns that frequently lead to stronger moves as the afternoon session approaches. This midday setup provides day traders with a preview of potential breakouts or reversals going into the final hours of trading.
- Pre-Afternoon Volatility Buildup: If one of these stocks has been consolidating or holding a range during midday, a breakout move in either direction around 2:00 PM ET can signal momentum for the rest of the trading session.
- Opportunity to Plan Trades: Observing the midday action in the Magnificent 7 allows traders to strategize and place limit orders or set alerts for the likely afternoon moves, increasing the potential for successful executions.
Final Thoughts
The Magnificent 7 stocks stand out as ideal day trading candidates during the midday session thanks to their sustained liquidity, volatility, and responsiveness to market news and technical indicators. For traders who prefer consistency and predictable patterns during the quieter hours, these stocks provide ample opportunities to profit from midday market dynamics. Whether through direct share trading or options, the Magnificent 7 remains top choices for traders seeking reliable setups and seamless execution between 11:30 AM and 2:00 PM ET.
You can find my course on how I trade the Magnificent 7 profitably every day here.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz
Why NVDA Tops My List of Trading Candidates
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has become one of the most popular stocks among day traders, and for good reason. With high daily volume, volatility, and relevance in rapidly evolving industries like artificial intelligence, gaming, and data centers, NVDA offers plenty of opportunities for those looking to capitalize on intraday price movements.
1. High Liquidity and Volume
NVDA consistently ranks among the highest-volume stocks on major exchanges. This liquidity ensures that traders can enter and exit positions easily, with minimal slippage, even when trading large volumes. The high daily volume also keeps bid-ask spreads tight, making it easier to capture small price movements for quick profits.
2. Volatility Creates Frequent Opportunities
Day traders thrive on volatility, and NVDA delivers just that. It’s a stock that regularly experiences substantial price swings within a single trading session. This volatility is fueled by its sensitivity to industry developments, earnings reports, and even broader market trends, especially as it relates to the tech sector. Traders can take advantage of these sharp price movements to enter and exit trades with high potential for gains.
3. Clear Reaction to News and Earnings
NVDA’s position in cutting-edge technology sectors means that it frequently makes headlines, which often translates to quick, substantial price reactions. Positive news, like new product launches or partnerships, can push NVDA higher, while regulatory developments or competitive threats can trigger pullbacks. Earnings announcements are also a major driver, with NVDA often experiencing large moves before, during, and after earnings calls.
4. Responsive to Technical Patterns and Indicators
As a heavily traded stock, NVDA often follows clear technical patterns, which day traders can use to set up trades. Common indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) provide reliable signals in NVDA’s price action. Day traders often use these indicators for scalping, breakouts, and trend-following strategies, all of which can be highly effective on NVDA.
5. Options Liquidity for Additional Leverage
NVDA also has a highly liquid options market, making it an attractive stock for traders who want to use options for leverage or manage risk. With weekly options and a wide range of strike prices, traders can access additional trading opportunities to take advantage of NVDA’s price movements with a limited upfront capital outlay.
NVDA’s high liquidity, volatility, and responsiveness to news make it a top choice for day traders seeking frequent opportunities and reliable price patterns. For those with a solid strategy and discipline, NVDA offers numerous intraday setups that can lead to profitable trades.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz
What’s So Standard About a Deviation?
In finance and trading, some technical terms can sound cryptic at best. One of these is the “standard deviation.” We often hear this phrase in discussions about market volatility, risk, and price fluctuations. But what is a standard deviation, and why do traders put so much emphasis on it? More specifically, how does measuring two standard deviations of the Average True Range (ATR) help traders put the odds in their favor when trading reversions? Let’s break it down.
Understanding Standard Deviation
In simple terms, a standard deviation is a statistical measure that tells us how far a set of numbers deviates from the average (or mean) of that set. When applied to trading, the standard deviation gauges the volatility or variability of price movement over a certain period. Higher standard deviations mean that prices are more spread out from the mean, indicating higher volatility, while lower standard deviations signify less variability and tighter clustering around the mean.
In trading, the standard deviation helps in understanding the “normal” range of price movement. Price action beyond this range can suggest either an overextended trend or an anomaly, opening up opportunities for strategic trades.
The Role of Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True Range (ATR), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is another measure traders use to assess volatility, but with a slightly different purpose. ATR measures the range within which a security’s price typically fluctuates over a given period, considering the highs and lows. Unlike the standard deviation, which looks at overall dispersion, ATR focuses more on the “true” range, capturing gaps and sharp moves that might be missed in a simple range calculation.
ATR essentially shows the level of volatility without specifying a direction. For instance, a high ATR indicates high volatility, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the price is trending up or down. By looking at ATR, traders can better gauge the intensity of market movement, which becomes critical for timing entries and exits.
Why 2 Standard Deviations?
A measurement of 2 standard deviations is a powerful tool for mean-reversion trading, particularly when combined with ATR. Here’s why:
- Statistical Probability: In a normal distribution, approximately 95% of the values fall within two standard deviations of the mean. Therefore, when a price moves beyond 2 standard deviations, it suggests an extreme move or an outlier. In other words, the price has deviated significantly from its typical range, which often signals that the move is unsustainable.
- Indicator of Overextension: By combining ATR with standard deviation, traders can measure whether a move is genuinely extended beyond its “average true range.” If a stock’s price has moved more than two standard deviations of its ATR, it may have reached an overbought or oversold level, depending on the direction. This can be a prime setup for a mean-reversion trade, where traders expect the price to revert to its average or baseline level.
- Setting Boundaries for Reversion: Using 2 standard deviations as a boundary helps traders place calculated bets on price reversals. The thinking is simple: if the price has moved so far from the mean, it’s more likely to reverse toward it rather than continue in the same extreme direction.
- Improving Risk Management: Trading reversals can be risky, as going against the trend always carries uncertainty. However, 2 standard deviations of ATR allow traders to quantify this risk. They can set stop losses or limit orders based on these extreme levels, aligning their trade management with volatility and reducing the odds of getting caught in erratic moves.
Why It Works for Reversion Trading
The concept of reversion to the mean is rooted in probability: if a price has moved far away from its average, there’s a good chance it will return. This is not always the case, as trends can override this logic, but this tendency holds in highly volatile or “mean-reverting” markets.
When the price moves beyond two standard deviations of ATR, the market will likely stretch thin in one direction. Other traders, seeing the same level of extreme deviation, might start taking profits or initiating counter-trades, reinforcing the reversion. This collective reaction can fuel the momentum toward the mean, creating a fertile ground for mean-reversion trades.
Example in Action
Imagine a stock with a 14-day ATR of $1.50. If the price moves to $3.00 (two times the ATR) away from its moving average, traders could consider this an overextended move. Whether the price has increased or decreased, they could view this deviation as a potential reversal opportunity based on the assumption that the price may revert to its average range.
Using a 2 standard deviation threshold gives traders a buffer, so they don’t react to every small fluctuation but only to substantial deviations, thereby improving their odds and reducing the likelihood of false signals.
Conclusion: Putting the Odds in Your Favor
In trading, tools that improve the probability of success are invaluable. Measuring 2 standard deviations of ATR is one such tool that can give traders an edge when trading reversions. It combines volatility and probability to signal opportunities where price action may be overextended and a reversion might be imminent.
This approach doesn’t eliminate risk but enhances the strategy’s effectiveness, as traders rely on statistical boundaries rather than subjective judgment. By waiting for the price to move two standard deviations beyond ATR, traders align themselves with patterns that are highly likely to reverse. This, in turn, allows them to approach mean-reversion trades with greater confidence and discipline, placing the odds in their favor.
To see the coursework available for trading 2SD Opening Gaps, click here.
Good Trading,
Adrian Manz


