The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Powell Speech Market Selloff
Powell Speech Market Selloff: Why Stocks Dropped After Fed Remarks
Stocks fell sharply today after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech that rattled investor confidence.
The Powell speech market selloff reflected renewed fears of higher interest rates for an extended period, slower growth, and lingering inflation pressures.
What Powell said
- Inflation still sticky: Powell noted progress has been “uneven” and warned the Fed may need to keep rates restrictive “for longer than markets anticipate.”
- Labor market warning: He highlighted persistent wage pressures, signaling inflation risks from a still-tight jobs market.
- No early cuts: Powell pushed back against expectations of aggressive easing, saying premature cuts risk reigniting inflation.
Why markets sold off
Investors had been pricing in a friendlier Fed path, including rate cuts within the next few months.
Powell’s comments forced a repricing across assets:
- Bond yields jumped: The 2-year Treasury yield spiked, reflecting reduced odds of near-term cuts.
- Stocks tumbled: The S&P 500 fell over 2%, with tech and rate-sensitive growth names leading declines.
- Dollar strengthened: A hawkish tone boosted the greenback, adding pressure on commodities and emerging markets.
Sector reaction
- Tech & Growth: High-valuation names like NVDA, TSLA, and AMZN sank as discount-rate expectations reset higher.
- Financials: Banks saw mixed action — higher yields helped margins, but the risk of a recession weighed on sentiment.
- Defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities, outperformed, reflecting a rotation into safer assets.
Trading takeaways
- Watch VWAP levels: On Fed days, fading extremes that fail to confirm above VWAP often offer high-probability setups.
- Track the 2-year yield: Sustained moves higher keep pressure on equities; reversals lower could spark a relief bounce.
- Focus on defensive sectors: If Powell doubles down, sectors like XLV (healthcare) and XLP (staples) can maintain relative strength.
Volatility remains elevated — Powell’s tone suggests that swings in rates and equities will persist into the next FOMC meeting.
Bottom line
Today’s Powell speech market selloff was about recalibration.
Traders expecting rapid cuts were reminded that inflation remains a threat, and the Fed isn’t ready to pivot quickly.
For now, that means higher yields, weaker growth stocks, and a defensive tilt until data prove otherwise.
Nvidia China Trade War September 2025
Nvidia China Trade War September 2025: Beijing Blacklists RTX Pro 6000D
China expands restrictions on Nvidia’s AI chips, intensifying trade war dynamics with the United States.
Beijing Targets Nvidia’s Latest AI Chip
The Nvidia China trade war September 2025 reached a new stage after Beijing’s Cyberspace Administration advised local firms not to purchase Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D. The guidance effectively blacklists the chip, unveiled in July for industrial AI applications, and comes after earlier restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 product designed for the Chinese market.
Shares of Nvidia dropped 2.6% following the announcement as analysts warned the company is unlikely to book any Chinese revenue from its new chips this year.
CEO Jensen Huang Responds
Speaking in London, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged the disappointment but stressed patience: “We can only serve a market if a country wants us.” He framed the dispute as part of a larger geopolitical struggle between Washington and Beijing.
Domestic Alternatives Rise
China is accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. chips:
- Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance have increased adoption of Chinese AI chips.
- China Unicom deployed 23,000 domestic processors in a single data center.
- Premier Li Qiang toured a facility showcasing local chips competing with Nvidia’s H20 and A800.
While performance gaps remain, Beijing is betting on scale and state-backed production to challenge Nvidia’s dominance.
Strategic Implications
This latest guidance underscores three key dynamics in the Nvidia China trade war September 2025:
- Pressure on negotiations: Beijing is signaling that semiconductor access will be a bargaining chip in broader trade talks.
- Boost for domestic industry: Restrictions are designed to accelerate adoption of Chinese alternatives, even if less advanced.
- Rejection of “hand-me-downs”: China refuses to rely on downgraded chips that U.S. regulators allow Nvidia to sell.
Investor Outlook
For Nvidia, the stakes are clear: lost near-term revenue, possible reputational damage, and heightened exposure to policy risk. Yet globally, the company remains a leader in AI hardware, with robust demand outside China.
Bottom Line
The Nvidia China trade war September 2025 illustrates how technology, trade, and geopolitics are colliding. Beijing’s decision to blacklist the RTX Pro 6000D is both a signal of support for domestic champions and a direct challenge to Washington’s export controls. For traders and investors, Nvidia’s China exposure now hinges less on product quality than on the trajectory of U.S.-China diplomacy.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut September 2025
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut September 2025: What Traders Need to Know
The Fed’s first cut in nine months reflects labor-market risks, sticky inflation, and shifting policy expectations.
Fed Cuts Rates After Nine-Month Pause
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 4%–4.25%. This Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 marks the first easing move since late 2024. The decision was widely expected but still rattled markets with its implications for growth and inflation.
Powell’s Balancing Act
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the move stemmed from a “shift in the balance of risks” to the Fed’s dual mandate. Inflation has ticked higher recently and remains above target, but signs of labor-market weakness are mounting:
- Unemployment has edged up from record lows.
- Job creation has slowed across multiple sectors.
- Downside risks to employment have grown even as prices remain elevated.
Powell emphasized that the central bank remains committed to price stability but cannot ignore rising risks to employment.
Policy Dissent and Independence Questions
The vote was nearly unanimous. The sole dissenter was Stephen Miran, newly sworn in as a Fed governor the day before the meeting. He favored a half-point cut. Because Miran came directly from the White House, investors questioned whether the Fed could maintain independence. Powell countered, stressing that the institution is “strongly committed” to keeping politics out of policy.
The Dot Plot: More Cuts Ahead
The Fed’s updated dot plot shows members now expect two more rate cuts in 2025, totaling another half-point of easing. Policymakers also project at least one additional cut in 2026. This guidance suggests the central bank has pivoted from “higher for longer” toward a more dovish path.
Market Reaction
Bonds
Yields on the two-year Treasury dropped as investors priced in further cuts, causing parts of the yield curve to steepen.
Stocks
Growth names in technology and consumer discretionary sectors rose on the prospect of cheaper capital, while financials were mixed.
U.S. Dollar
The dollar weakened against major peers, reflecting narrowing interest-rate differentials.
Commodities
Gold and other hedges gained ground as real yields slipped, offering traders new momentum setups.
What Traders Should Watch Next
The Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 underscores a changing environment for day traders and investors. The next signals to monitor include:
- Two-Year Yield: The market’s clearest read on Fed credibility.
- Upcoming Jobs Data: A weak print could accelerate expectations for more easing.
- Inflation Reports: Stickier-than-expected prices could challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt.
Bottom Line
The Federal Reserve interest rate cut September 2025 shows the central bank is now more concerned with employment than inflation. For traders, that means heightened volatility—and opportunity—around every new data release. Stay nimble, keep an eye on bonds and the dollar, and be ready for sharp sector rotations as markets adjust to this new policy path.