Moderna Stock Outlook

by | Nov 5, 2025 | The Doctor's Dose

Moderna Stock Outlook: Cash Crunch, Cancer Hopes, and Key Levels Ahead of Earnings

The Moderna stock outlook is on a knife-edge this week as investors brace for Thursday’s earnings report. Once flush with nearly $20 billion in pandemic profits, the biotech innovator now faces the challenge of sustaining operations amid fading vaccine demand and deep quarterly losses.

Moderna stock outlook

Moderna’s cash balance, which peaked in early 2022, has reportedly dwindled to roughly $6 billion. Management maintains that no additional financing will be necessary to bridge the operations gap until profitability is achieved—projected for 2028—but traders are skeptical as the burn rate accelerates. The Moderna stock outlook has darkened as Wall Street weighs whether that runway is long enough.

From Pandemic Hero to Biotech Underdog

Shares of Moderna (MRNA) have declined by more than 40% in 2025 and by over 90% since the euphoric highs of 2021. The company’s once-lucrative COVID-19 franchise has collapsed, with global vaccination rates near record lows. Pfizer’s latest quarterly update showed COVID vaccine sales down 20%, underscoring the structural headwinds facing the entire sector.

Adding to the bearish outlook for Moderna stock, the company recently halted development of its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine due to disappointing data. Its respiratory syncytial virus shot, mRESVIA, has also struggled to gain traction against established rivals GSK and Pfizer.

What Wall Street Expects

Consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet call for $880 million in third-quarter revenue and an operating loss near $900 million. Earnings per share are expected to come in at approximately –$2.12. Those numbers would mark another sequential decline in sales, confirming that Moderna’s core vaccine business is still shrinking.

For the full year, the company has guided toward $1.5 billion to $2.2 billion in total revenue—barely 10% of what it generated during the height of the pandemic. Traders watching the Moderna stock outlook will focus on whether the firm narrows that range or signals additional cost-cutting measures to preserve capital.

The Pipeline Pivot: Cancer and Beyond

While the vaccine business cools, Moderna’s strategic pivot centers on oncology. The company is advancing mRNA-2808, an early-stage therapy targeting skin cancer, and mRNA-4157, a personalized cancer vaccine being co-developed with Merck. Positive trial updates could shift sentiment and inject new life into the Moderna stock outlook, especially if preliminary efficacy data exceeds expectations.

Still, analysts caution that these programs remain years away from commercialization, leaving investors to weather several more quarters of negative cash flow.

Trading Ideas: Positioning Ahead of Earnings

  • Key Levels: Support sits near $68.50—the October swing low—while resistance is capped around $76.80. A sustained move above that range could trigger short covering toward $81–83.
  • Bullish Setup: Traders may look for an upside gap-and-hold above $78 following the report, especially if guidance improves or cash burn slows.
  • Bearish Setup: A weak report or revenue miss could push shares below $67, opening the door to a retest of the $60 psychological level.
  • Volatility Play: Weekly options imply a ±9% move post-earnings—attractive for short-term straddle traders betting on volatility expansion.

Technically, the chart remains in a long-term downtrend, but momentum indicators are turning neutral as the stock consolidates near major Fibonacci retracement levels. If the company can deliver credible progress on its cancer pipeline or tighten expense guidance, the Moderna stock outlook may finally stabilize after two years of relentless selling.

Bottom Line

Moderna’s transformation from a pandemic windfall story to a diversified biotech contender is still in its early innings. Thursday’s earnings call—scheduled for 8 a.m. ET—will likely set the tone for the rest of the year. Traders focused on the Moderna stock outlook should watch cash flow trends, updates on cancer trials, and management’s tone on future funding needs.

Until then, MRNA remains a volatile trading vehicle: high risk, high reward, and still searching for its next blockbuster.

Sources: Moderna Q3 2025 guidance, FactSet estimates, Merck partnership disclosures, TraderInsight technical analysis.