Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation gauge (Aug 25–29, 2025)
In the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, markets face a packed slate of economic data and high‑impact earnings—headlined by the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and Nvidia’s results.
Overview
The PCE inflation gauge—the Federal Reserve’s preferred price index—lands on Friday and sits at the center of this week’s narrative. Consensus looks for a 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline PCE for July, and core PCE (ex‑food & energy) running at 2.9% year‑over‑year with a 0.3% month‑over‑month gain. On Wednesday, Nvidia caps the megacap reporting cycle: analysts expect July‑quarter sales near $45.81B (+~53% YoY) and $1.00 in adjusted EPS as AI demand remains the primary engine.
Beyond AI, a broad retail slate (Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s, Burlington, Ulta, Gap and more) will test consumer resilience. Meanwhile, hard data roll in: durable goods (Tue), Conference Board consumer confidence (Tue), second estimate of Q2 GDP (Thu), and housing updates including new‑home sales (Mon) and pending home sales (Thu).
Earnings Calendar: Tech, AI, and the Consumer
Technology & Internet
- Mon (Aug 25): PDD Holdings, Semtech
- Tue (Aug 26): Okta, Box
- Wed (Aug 27): Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Trip.com, Agilent Technologies, HP Inc., NetApp, Pure Storage
- Thu (Aug 28): Marvell Technology, SentinelOne, Autodesk, Affirm Holdings
- Fri (Aug 29): Alibaba
Retail & Consumer
- Wed (Aug 27): Five Below, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker, Kohl’s
- Thu (Aug 28): Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Ulta Beauty, Gap
Note: Schedules can shift. Verify exact reporting times and conference calls with each issuer’s investor relations page.
Economic Calendar Highlights
| Day | Release | Consensus / Prior | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon (Aug 25) | New Residential Sales (July) | 650k SAAR vs 627k prior | Early read on housing activity and rate sensitivity. |
| Tue (Aug 26) | Durable Goods Orders (July) | −3.5% m/m (consensus); −9.4% prior | Captures core goods demand and capex momentum. |
| Tue (Aug 26) | Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 97.0 consensus; 97.2 prior | Tracks household sentiment ahead of retail earnings. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | GDP, 2nd Estimate (Q2) | 3.0% annualized (first estimate) | Refines the growth picture and supply–demand balance. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Aug 23) | N/A | High‑frequency gauge of labor‑market softness/tightness. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | Pending Home Sales (July) | +0.5% m/m consensus; −0.8% prior | Leads existing‑home closings by 1–2 months. |
| Fri (Aug 29) | PCE Price Index (July) | +0.2% m/m headline; core +2.9% y/y, +0.3% m/m | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; key for policy path. |
| Fri (Aug 29) | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug, final) | 58.6 prelim; 61.7 July | Cross‑check on confidence, inflation expectations. |
What It Means for Traders
1) PCE as a Volatility Trigger
The PCE inflation gauge is the decisive macro print. A hotter PCE risks higher‑for‑longer rate expectations and a growth‑to‑value rotation; a cooler print could extend risk appetite and compress yields. Watch rate‑sensitives and high‑duration tech around the release window.
2) Nvidia as AI Sentiment Barometer
Nvidia earnings will test AI‑spending momentum. Beyond headline beats/misses, focus on data‑center growth rates, supply commentary, inference/training demand mix, and guideposts for H2. Expect sympathy moves in semis, hyperscalers, and AI platform names.
3) Retail Tells on the Consumer
Results from big‑box and specialty retailers offer real‑time reads on discretionary spend, shrink, and mix (services vs. goods). Look for traffic, ticket, and margin commentary to align—or diverge—from confidence and PCE prints.
Trading Playbook
- Event windows: Reduce size or hedge into PCE/GDP; deploy volatility band or opening gap setups when ranges expand.
- Earnings tactics: Prefer post‑print first pullback entries aligned with guidance tone and order‑flow confirmation; avoid chasing initial spikes.
- Sector rotation: Map leaders/laggards across semis, software, and retail; use anchored VWAP and prior‑day value to frame risk.
- Housing sensitivity: Be alert to homebuilders and rate‑exposed financials around new/pending home data.
Day‑by‑Day Planner (Aug 25–29)
Monday, Aug 25
- Earnings: PDD, Semtech
- Data: New‑home sales (consensus 650k SAAR vs 627k)
Tuesday, Aug 26
- Earnings: Okta, Box, PVH, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, MongoDB
- Data: Durable goods (−3.5% m/m cons.; −9.4% prior); Conference Board consumer confidence (97.0 cons.)
Wednesday, Aug 27
- Earnings: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Trip.com, Agilent, HP Inc., NetApp, Pure Storage, Chewy, J.M. Smucker, Five Below, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Bill Holdings, Foot Locker, Kohl’s
Thursday, Aug 28
- Earnings: Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Hormel Foods, Brown‑Forman, Marvell, Ulta, SentinelOne, Autodesk, Affirm, Gap
- Data: GDP 2nd estimate (Q2), Initial jobless claims (w/e Aug 23), Pending home sales (cons. +0.5% m/m)
Friday, Aug 29
- Earnings: Alibaba
- Data: PCE price index (July): +0.2% m/m headline; core +2.9% y/y (+0.3% m/m). Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (final): 58.6 prelim.