Rivian Warns of Bigger Losses

by | Aug 6, 2025 | The Doctor's Dose

Rivian Warns of Bigger Losses as EV Headwinds Mount: What Traders Need to Know

Shares of Rivian Automotive (RIVN) fell over 4.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday, following a disappointing earnings release and a revised full-year loss forecast that reflects growing uncertainty across the global economy and electric vehicle (EV) sector.

While second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion topped Wall Street expectations ($1.28B), and the company reaffirmed its 2025 delivery target of 40,000–46,000 vehicles, it was the warning about broader macroeconomic and regulatory risks that spooked investors.

Rivian earnings and EV policy risks

Deeper Losses Ahead

Rivian now expects a full-year adjusted loss between $2.0 billion and $2.25 billion, compared to its May guidance of $1.7–$1.9 billion. The company cited:

  • Global supply chain pressures
  • Tariff threats
  • EV tax credit phase-outs
  • Regulatory credit policy shifts
  • Waning consumer demand in the U.S. EV market

“The global economic landscape and the U.S. regulatory environment present significant uncertainty… These factors have impacted and are expected to continue to impact our global supply chain, material costs and access, profitability and capital expenditures.” — Rivian shareholder letter

The EV Sector’s New Reality

1. Policy Uncertainty

The U.S. government is preparing to end certain EV tax credits after September 30, which could diminish buyer incentives and compress near-term demand.

2. Demand Normalization

The EV market is cooling, with early adopters already onboard and new buyers facing higher financing costs and limited charging infrastructure.

3. Fierce Competition

Rivian competes with legacy automakers scaling EV production (e.g., Ford, GM) and Tesla, which continues to adjust pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese EV giants like BYD are expanding aggressively.

What Traders Should Watch

1. Price Action Signals

Rivian stock is now approaching support near $16–$17. A break below could trigger a technical selloff.

2. Intraday Setup

  • Opening Range Breakdown (ORB) setups below premarket lows
  • VWAP fade strategies if the stock fails to reclaim VWAP
  • Option flow for institutional positioning clues

3. Sentiment Shifts in Peers

Negative sentiment in RIVN could bleed into other EV names like Lucid (LCID), Fisker (FSR), and even Tesla (TSLA).

Still on Track: R2 Launch Holds Steady

Despite profit concerns, Rivian is progressing with its R2 mid-size SUV, targeting a launch in the first half of 2026. Pilot production has begun, and its Illinois factory expansion is nearly complete.

Final Thought: Rivian’s Growing Pains Are Becoming Costly

Rivian’s Q2 report shows a company still in its early growth stage—but now facing real macroeconomic and competitive pressures. Long-term potential exists, but short-term traders should be ready for heightened volatility.

TraderInsight Pro Tip: Track Rivian’s performance relative to TSLA and the Global X Autonomous & EV ETF (DRIV). Watch for new policy developments on EV tax credits and tariff enforcement—these will drive the next major move.