The numbers

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, July deliveries totaled just 8,837 vehicles, representing a 40% year-over-year decline. Through July, Tesla’s European sales are down 34% from the prior year, with only 119,013 vehicles sold, compared to 179,338 in 2024. Meanwhile, the European EV market overall grew by 34% to 186,440 units, pushing Tesla’s market share to approximately 5%, down from 11% last year.

Why investors aren’t panicking

Despite the slump in Tesla European sales, the stock traded as high as $353.55 on Thursday before easing to the $341 area. The resilience reflects investor focus on the company’s AI strategy rather than short-term vehicle volumes.

Tesla’s rollout of its robo-taxi in Austin, Texas, has captured the market’s attention. Since its October 2024 unveiling, the stock has surged 46%, adding roughly $350 billion to its market capitalization. Investors appear willing to overlook weak delivery data in favor of the long-term potential of AI and autonomy.

Implications for day traders

For traders, the divergence between fundamentals and stock performance matters. The fact that Tesla’s European sales cratered while its shares held firm suggests that newsflow is being discounted when it conflicts with the AI narrative. Here’s what to watch:

• Headline whipsaws: Expect intraday volatility when sales data hits, but watch how quickly price action reverts toward AI optimism.
• VWAP & Range Trades: Use pre-market highs and lows to frame intraday setups. Fades into VWAP often work when bad news meets resilient price action.
• AI Catalyst Trades: Robo-taxi and autonomy headlines have generated larger moves than those related to delivery numbers. Size trades accordingly.
• Relative Strength: Compare Tesla’s tape to peers like NIO, VW, and Mercedes EV units — relative weakness abroad could set up pairs trades.

What comes next

An updated Model Y and a lower-cost variant, planned for later in 2025, could help stabilize volumes. Still, until deliveries improve, Tesla’s European sales will remain a drag on fundamentals. Traders should consider whether price rallies are sustainable or if AI-driven sentiment will eventually encounter resistance.

Bottom line

The sharp decline in Tesla European sales contrasts with the stock’s strength, underscoring that investors are trading the AI story, not the delivery story. For day traders, this means staying nimble: fade overreactions, respect VWAP levels, and let the order flow tell you when the AI narrative overpowers the fundamentals.