Today's War Room Trading Recap

📅 Market Recap – July 29, 2025

Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as traders weighed upbeat earnings results against renewed concerns about valuations and signs of slowing consumer activity. After a morning dip, the major indexes recovered some ground but lacked strong conviction heading into the close.

📈 Index Performance

• S&P 500: -0.18%

• Dow Jones: +0.12%

• Nasdaq Composite: -0.34%

🔍 Key Drivers

1. Earnings Season in Full Swing
Several large-cap companies reported today, with mixed reactions:

• UPS and GE beat expectations and raised guidance.

• Shopify and Intel pulled back after issuing conservative outlooks despite revenue growth.

2. Consumer Confidence Weakens
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in below expectations, falling to its lowest level in 4 months. Concerns about future job availability and rising prices weighed on sentiment, especially among households earning under $75K.

3. Treasury Yields Tick Higher
The 10-year yield edged up to 4.34%, putting pressure on growth stocks. Traders are anticipating the Fed’s next move as some officials hinted at a possible rate cut delay if inflation data doesn’t cooperate.

4. Crude Oil Rallies
WTI crude surged above $81/barrel, buoyed by expectations of tighter supply and increased summer demand. This helped energy stocks outperform broader markets.

5. TSLA and Mega Caps in Focus
Tesla rebounded from early selling pressure, but hit strong resistance near $324, triggering short setups late in the session. The Magnificent 7 showed mixed performance, with NVDA and AMZN leading, while AAPL and TSLA lagged.

📝 Notable Mentions:

• Bitcoin climbed back above $64,000 amid renewed institutional interest.

• Small caps underperformed again, weighed down by regional banks and biotech.

• VIX remains subdued at 13.8, indicating short-term complacency.

📊 Trader Takeaway:

Markets are at a critical juncture: strong earnings and resilient tech vs. sticky inflation, cautious Fed commentary, and stretched valuations. Today’s price action reflected hesitation, with traders tightening risk ahead of Thursday’s core PCE inflation report — a key metric for Fed policy.