Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Rare Earth Stocks Rally
Rare Earth Stocks Erupt as U.S. Pushes to Break China’s Grip
Investors are racing to back producers of rare earths and other critical minerals as Washington moves to loosen China’s stranglehold on key inputs for smartphones, EVs, and defense hardware. Shares of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and Australia’s Lynas have more than doubled year to date, while names leveraged to lithium, cobalt, and germanium have surged alongside the rare earth stocks rally.
fast-tracking permits, and loosening environmental rules to accelerate new mines and processing plants. The move comes amid Beijing’s tightened export controls on magnet products that contain even trace China-sourced rare earths, and plans to add five additional elements—holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium—to its control list.
Policy Shock: How the U.S. Is Rebooting the Supply Chain
- Strategic reserve & price floor: Proposed mechanisms to damp boom-bust cycles and reduce dependence on China’s state-backed producers.
- Permitting & environmental relief: Expedited approvals aimed at bringing mining/processing online faster.
- Equity stakes in miners: Recent U.S. positions in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals have coincided with sharp share-price gains.
- China’s counter: New approvals required for exports of RE-containing magnets; more elements added to control lists—tightening global supply.
Market Impact: Flows Into Critical Minerals
The policy pivot has electrified a once-sleepy corner of materials. Beyond the rare earth stocks rally, investor interest has spilled into
lithium, cobalt, and germanium plays. That said, analysts caution the tape is fertile ground for hype: junior miners can pop on thin,
promotional headlines, and some “announcements” may lack operational substance.
meaningless announcements.” Selectivity matters.
Watchlist & Bull/Bear Setup
U.S. & Australia
- MP Materials (MP): U.S. producer with direct leverage to policy support and price floors.
- USA Rare Earth (private/OTC exposure varies): Beneficiary of onshoring narrative.
- Lynas (LYC.AX): Non-China processing footprint; a liquid proxy for policy shifts.
Critical Minerals Adjacent
- Lithium Americas (LAC): U.S. stake headlines and strategic relevance.
- Trilogy Metals (TMQ): U.S. stake plus strategic corridor potential.
Theme: rare earth stocks rally
Theme: strategic mineral reserve
Theme: China export controls
Trading Plan (Day & Swing)
- Day trade tactics: Use pre-market news filters for “permit,” “offtake,” “DoD,” or “strategic reserve” headlines. Fade
low-substance PR spikes into VWAP if volume/imbalance don’t confirm. Conversely, ride breakouts that hold above opening range highs on 3–5× average volume; trail with 5–minute higher lows. - Swing entries: Prefer pullbacks to rising 20/50-DMA support after thrust days. Scale in on higher-low retests that coincide
with rising OBV. Anchor stops under the prior swing low; first targets at prior high/1.272 Fib extensions. - Pairs/hedges: Long quality producers (MP/LYC) vs. a basket short of thinly capitalized juniors to neutralize sector beta and
reduce headline risk during the rare earth stocks rally. - Catalyst calendar: Track U.S. announcements on the strategic reserve/price floor, permitting decisions, and any additional
Chinese export restrictions—these are the primary volatility drivers.
Risks & What Could Go Wrong
- Policy execution risk: Reserve/price-floor mechanics may take longer than expected; timelines slip.
- China reaction function: Further export curbs could spike prices but also whipsaw equities if downstream demand pauses.
- Project delivery: Capex inflation, permitting setbacks, or processing bottlenecks can derail timelines for juniors.
- Speculative froth: Low-float names can gap down on financing or missed milestones—position sizing is critical during a
rare earth stocks rally.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. push to onshore rare earths—plus China’s tighter export regime—has transformed sentiment. Quality producers and well-capitalized developers should retain a bid while policy support builds out. For traders, the edge comes from discriminating between genuine capacity-adding catalysts and promotional noise, structuring positions with disciplined risk, and respecting the volatility that comes with a policy-driven rare earth stocks rally.
Apple iPhone 17
Apple’s iPhone 17 Ignites Growth Ahead of Holiday Season
By TraderInsight Editorial Team | October 20, 2025
Redesign Drives Renewed Demand
Industry sources monitoring Apple’s supply chain and mobile carrier data report stronger-than-expected early momentum for the Apple iPhone 17 since its September debut. Customers are facing extended delivery times—an indicator of high demand not seen since the pandemic years.
Analysts expect smartphone revenue to rebound by 4% in fiscal 2025 to $209.3 billion and grow nearly 5% in fiscal 2026 to $218.9 billion, according to Visible Alpha. After two sluggish years, the iPhone’s comeback marks a significant shift for the world’s most valuable tech brand.
Wall Street’s Surprise
“It’s fair to describe the iPhone 17 launch as surprising versus where Wall Street expectations were at the end of August,” said Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Apple’s smartphone revenues had declined 2% in fiscal 2023 and remained flat in 2024, weighed down by saturation and longer upgrade cycles.
This year’s changes—a lighter frame, improved displays, and camera system upgrades—are motivating long-time users to upgrade aging devices. Analysts see this as the first major hardware refresh since the iPhone X era that has sparked visible excitement among consumers.
Queues Return to Apple Stores
“Clearly it’s a very strong quarter for Apple,” said Francisco Jeronimo of IDC. “I don’t remember the last time I saw queues outside Apple stores like this year.” Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on October 30, covering the first weeks of iPhone 17 sales. Analysts expect a sharp bump in hardware revenue and stronger guidance into the holiday season.
Unit volumes remain relatively stable—about 235 million between fiscal 2024 and 2026—but higher average selling prices and accessory attach rates are driving revenue gains. iPhones still generate more than half of Apple’s $390 billion in annual sales.
Headwinds Remain: Tariffs and AI Delays
Despite the strong start, Apple continues to face challenges. Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese-made electronics are pressuring profit margins, and delays in rolling out Apple’s on-device AI features have tempered investor enthusiasm. Nevertheless, supply-chain analysts note that Apple’s diversification into India and Vietnam is helping offset some tariff exposure.
Trading Implications for $AAPL
- Short-term momentum: Expect a potential continuation of the post-launch rally into Apple’s October 30 earnings. Momentum traders may eye resistance near $235.
- Earnings catalyst: A strong iPhone 17 launch could push Apple to guide higher for Q1 2026, especially if pre-orders remain elevated through the holidays.
- Options setup: Traders may look at bullish call spreads targeting the $240–$250 range, positioning for a post-earnings breakout.
- Macro watch: Tariff rhetoric or delays in AI rollout could trigger short-term volatility, but the underlying demand story remains bullish.
Bottom Line
The Apple iPhone 17 launch is shaping up as the company’s most successful hardware cycle since 2020. With renewed consumer enthusiasm and pricing power intact, Apple may be entering another multi-year upgrade phase—one that could offset near-term political and regulatory risks. For traders, Apple remains a core long-term growth play with short-term catalysts tied to earnings and holiday sales momentum.
Fed rate cut October 2025
Fed Rate Cut in October Is as Good as Done — December Is the Real Battleground
October Rate Cut Baked In
After weeks of consistent messaging from Fed officials, futures markets are assigning a near-100% probability to a 25 basis-point cut at the October 28–29 FOMC meeting. The move would bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, extending the central bank’s pivot toward supporting employment while inflation cools unevenly.
Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks were interpreted as an explicit green light for the October cut. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have backed the move, while Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee, has floated the idea of a deeper 50-point cut to accelerate stimulus.
Why December Matters More
The Fed rate cut October 2025 is widely viewed as a done deal, but the path after that remains uncertain. The Summary of Economic Projections released in September showed a split committee: seven members expected no more cuts this year, while others anticipated one or two additional moves. That dispersion keeps the December 9–10 meeting wide open for debate.
Complicating matters is the ongoing government shutdown, which has disrupted critical labor and inflation data from the BLS and BEA. The Fed may have to rely on private payroll trackers and state-level data to gauge the economy’s health.
If the data—when it arrives—show further hiring weakness, a second cut in December becomes likely. But if inflation flares again, especially under the weight of new tariffs, policymakers could argue for a pause.
Political Pressure and Policy Shifts Ahead
Markets are also weighing the political undertones. Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s term expires in January, and with President Trump expected to nominate a new chair to replace Powell when his term ends in May, traders see potential for a more aggressive easing cycle in 2026.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, known for her hawkish tone, will rotate into a voting seat next year—adding another wrinkle to how the committee balances growth and inflation risks.
Trading Implications
- Bonds: Expect yields to continue softening into the October meeting; the 10-year could test support near recent lows if guidance remains dovish.
- Financials: Bank stocks may remain under pressure as narrowing net interest margins weigh on Q4 earnings guidance.
- Gold and Treasuries: If the Fed hints at a December follow-up cut, safe-haven assets could spike as traders reposition for a softer dollar.
- Equities: Growth sectors—particularly tech and AI—may rally on renewed liquidity optimism. Watch for rotation out of defensive names.
Bottom Line
The Fed rate cut October 2025 is all but guaranteed—but what happens in December will define the next phase of market momentum. Whether policymakers cut again or pause will hinge on delayed data, trade tensions, and the evolving political landscape. For traders, the real opportunity lies not in the first move—but in positioning ahead of the second.
AWS outage 2025
AWS Outage 2025: What Broke, Who Felt It, and How Markets Reacted
Snapchat, Reddit, Roblox, the McDonald’s app, and disrupting
Coinbase and United Airlines. Amazon Web Services pinpointed the issue to an internal subsystem that monitors
network load balancers in its critical US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia). Despite the widespread impact, Amazon (AMZN)
finished the day higher, and broader indices rallied.
Timeline & Root Cause
- ~3:00 a.m. ET: AWS flags increased error rates across multiple services in US-East-1.
- Morning: Popular consumer apps and several media sites experience access failures and elevated error rates.
- 1:38 p.m. ET: AWS reports “early signs of recovery” as mitigations are applied and new EC2 launches are throttled to stabilize the region.
- Later updates: AWS notes “significant signs of recovery,” with most operations normalized by evening.
The company cited an issue with an underlying internal subsystem responsible for health checks on network load balancers as the root cause of the
AWS outage 2025.
Who Was Hit
Consumer apps saw the most visible pain: Snapchat, Reddit, Roblox, and the McDonald’s app
reported disruptions. Coinbase told users core functions like trading and transfers were impaired but emphasized that customer funds
were safe. Several Dow Jones sites—including Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and MarketWatch—also experienced downtime before returning online.
Beyond the web, United Airlines said the AWS incident affected its app/website and some internal systems, producing minor delays until
backup procedures were activated.
Why It Matters
Amazon Web Services controls roughly 38% of the global public-cloud market (per Gartner), with Microsoft at ~24%. When US-East-1
stumbles, ripple effects reach across consumer, enterprise, and transportation systems worldwide. The AWS outage 2025 underscores how deeply
modern commerce depends on a handful of hyperscalers—and how critical region-level resilience and failover design have become.
Market Reaction
Despite the disruption, AMZN finished up ~1.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite
closed higher by ~1.1% and ~1.4%, respectively. The tape read: investors saw a transient technical failure, not a structural threat to AWS’s moat.
That reaction reinforces the bull case that AWS outage 2025 headlines (without prolonged impact) don’t materially dent Amazon’s long-term narrative.
Trader’s Take — Tactics & Levels
- AMZN: Headline dips tied to AWS outage 2025-type events can create buy-the-dip opportunities if price holds above
short-term VWAP and prior day’s midpoint. Watch pre-market reaction and US-East-1 status updates. - MSFT / AZURE-adjacent: Sympathy flows are common; if AWS stumbles but recovers quickly, rotation into Azure is usually brief.
- Impacted apps (SNAP, RBLX, COIN, UAL): Intraday fades back to VWAP after service restoration often offer higher-probability entries than
chasing initial spikes. - Volatility: Consider tactical long-vol on fresh cloud-disruption headlines; fade vol once AWS status moves to “resolved” across all AZs.
sellers may still be in control—avoid knife-catching.
What Changes Post-Mortem?
Expect customers to revisit multi-region architectures, cross-cloud disaster-recovery plans, and automated health-check circuit breakers.
For the hyperscalers, clearer incident comms and throttling policies reduce uncertainty—the faster the transparency, the smaller the equity drawdown on the next AWS outage 2025-style event.
Bottom Line
The AWS outage 2025 was a sharp reminder that the cloud still runs through a few chokepoints. But the market’s shrug says it all:
AWS’s dominance, speed of mitigation, and client lock-in keep the long-term story intact. For traders, it’s a headline-driven setup—respect VWAP, trade smaller,
and let the status page be your catalyst clock.
Barrick Mining Copper Expansion
Barrick Mining: New Name, Copper Focus, and Investor Revival Ahead
Barrick Mining, formerly known as Barrick Gold, has rebranded itself and changed its stock ticker from GOLD to B, marking a strategic shift that emphasizes its growing stake in the global copper market. The move signals a fresh era for investors who hope the company’s diversification will finally deliver stronger returns after decades of underperformance.
A Strategic Shift Toward Copper
Under CEO Mark Bristow, Barrick Mining is no longer just a gold company. About 20% of its production now comes from copper, a share expected to rise to 30% by 2029, driven by a massive new project in Pakistan and ongoing operations in Zambia. “We’re not just a gold company. We’ve added a copper leg to our stool,” Bristow told Barron’s.
Market Reaction and Valuation
Shares of Barrick Mining dropped 5.8% on Monday to $18.33, following a 2.6% dip in gold prices to $3,238 per ounce. Despite gold’s surge to near-record highs, Barrick’s performance has lagged behind peers like Newmont and Agnico Eagle. Over the past year, Barrick’s stock has gained only 9%, compared with 20% for Newmont and 57% for Agnico Eagle.
Valued at about $31 billion, Barrick trades at roughly half of Agnico’s market cap despite similar gold production. The stock trades for around 10 times projected 2025 earnings and yields approximately 2%, making it one of the cheaper large-cap miners.
Operational Challenges
The company faces challenges, including a dispute with Mali’s government that has halted operations at one of its major mines, Loulo-Gounkoto, which previously produced 600,000 ounces of gold annually. As a result, Barrick projects total gold output of 3.3 million ounces in 2025, down from nearly 4 million last year.
Still, Barrick Mining posted strong first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings up 84% year-over-year to $0.35 per share. Rising costs remain a concern, with all-in sustaining costs up about $300 an ounce to $1,775. Analysts, however, expect improved performance in the second half of the year.
CFRA analyst Matthew Miller maintains a Strong Buy on Barrick, expecting “higher production and lower costs across most operations” in the coming quarters, despite volatility in gold and copper markets.
Positioning for the Next Decade
Bristow remains bullish on both gold and copper. He points to “de-dollarization” trends among central banks and the high debt levels of Western nations as key supports for gold. Meanwhile, copper prices—currently above $4.60 per pound—continue to strengthen despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
With only $600 million in net debt and a diversified resource base, Barrick Mining looks poised to benefit from global shifts toward electrification and alternative currencies. “We’ve replaced every ounce of gold and pound of copper we’ve mined over the past six years,” Bristow said, emphasizing the company’s commitment to sustainable reserves.
The Bottom Line
After decades of disappointing investors, Barrick Mining is attempting a reinvention—rooted in copper expansion, operational discipline, and a renewed focus on growth. If Bristow’s strategy pays off, the company’s low valuation, strong balance sheet, and exposure to two of the world’s most important commodities could finally give investors the breakout they’ve been waiting for.