The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Fed rate cut October 2025
Fed Rate Cut in October Is as Good as Done — December Is the Real Battleground
October Rate Cut Baked In
After weeks of consistent messaging from Fed officials, futures markets are assigning a near-100% probability to a 25 basis-point cut at the October 28–29 FOMC meeting. The move would bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, extending the central bank’s pivot toward supporting employment while inflation cools unevenly.
Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks were interpreted as an explicit green light for the October cut. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have backed the move, while Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee, has floated the idea of a deeper 50-point cut to accelerate stimulus.
Why December Matters More
The Fed rate cut October 2025 is widely viewed as a done deal, but the path after that remains uncertain. The Summary of Economic Projections released in September showed a split committee: seven members expected no more cuts this year, while others anticipated one or two additional moves. That dispersion keeps the December 9–10 meeting wide open for debate.
Complicating matters is the ongoing government shutdown, which has disrupted critical labor and inflation data from the BLS and BEA. The Fed may have to rely on private payroll trackers and state-level data to gauge the economy’s health.
If the data—when it arrives—show further hiring weakness, a second cut in December becomes likely. But if inflation flares again, especially under the weight of new tariffs, policymakers could argue for a pause.
Political Pressure and Policy Shifts Ahead
Markets are also weighing the political undertones. Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s term expires in January, and with President Trump expected to nominate a new chair to replace Powell when his term ends in May, traders see potential for a more aggressive easing cycle in 2026.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, known for her hawkish tone, will rotate into a voting seat next year—adding another wrinkle to how the committee balances growth and inflation risks.
Trading Implications
- Bonds: Expect yields to continue softening into the October meeting; the 10-year could test support near recent lows if guidance remains dovish.
- Financials: Bank stocks may remain under pressure as narrowing net interest margins weigh on Q4 earnings guidance.
- Gold and Treasuries: If the Fed hints at a December follow-up cut, safe-haven assets could spike as traders reposition for a softer dollar.
- Equities: Growth sectors—particularly tech and AI—may rally on renewed liquidity optimism. Watch for rotation out of defensive names.
Bottom Line
The Fed rate cut October 2025 is all but guaranteed—but what happens in December will define the next phase of market momentum. Whether policymakers cut again or pause will hinge on delayed data, trade tensions, and the evolving political landscape. For traders, the real opportunity lies not in the first move—but in positioning ahead of the second.
AWS outage 2025
AWS Outage 2025: What Broke, Who Felt It, and How Markets Reacted
Snapchat, Reddit, Roblox, the McDonald’s app, and disrupting
Coinbase and United Airlines. Amazon Web Services pinpointed the issue to an internal subsystem that monitors
network load balancers in its critical US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia). Despite the widespread impact, Amazon (AMZN)
finished the day higher, and broader indices rallied.
Timeline & Root Cause
- ~3:00 a.m. ET: AWS flags increased error rates across multiple services in US-East-1.
- Morning: Popular consumer apps and several media sites experience access failures and elevated error rates.
- 1:38 p.m. ET: AWS reports “early signs of recovery” as mitigations are applied and new EC2 launches are throttled to stabilize the region.
- Later updates: AWS notes “significant signs of recovery,” with most operations normalized by evening.
The company cited an issue with an underlying internal subsystem responsible for health checks on network load balancers as the root cause of the
AWS outage 2025.
Who Was Hit
Consumer apps saw the most visible pain: Snapchat, Reddit, Roblox, and the McDonald’s app
reported disruptions. Coinbase told users core functions like trading and transfers were impaired but emphasized that customer funds
were safe. Several Dow Jones sites—including Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and MarketWatch—also experienced downtime before returning online.
Beyond the web, United Airlines said the AWS incident affected its app/website and some internal systems, producing minor delays until
backup procedures were activated.
Why It Matters
Amazon Web Services controls roughly 38% of the global public-cloud market (per Gartner), with Microsoft at ~24%. When US-East-1
stumbles, ripple effects reach across consumer, enterprise, and transportation systems worldwide. The AWS outage 2025 underscores how deeply
modern commerce depends on a handful of hyperscalers—and how critical region-level resilience and failover design have become.
Market Reaction
Despite the disruption, AMZN finished up ~1.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite
closed higher by ~1.1% and ~1.4%, respectively. The tape read: investors saw a transient technical failure, not a structural threat to AWS’s moat.
That reaction reinforces the bull case that AWS outage 2025 headlines (without prolonged impact) don’t materially dent Amazon’s long-term narrative.
Trader’s Take — Tactics & Levels
- AMZN: Headline dips tied to AWS outage 2025-type events can create buy-the-dip opportunities if price holds above
short-term VWAP and prior day’s midpoint. Watch pre-market reaction and US-East-1 status updates. - MSFT / AZURE-adjacent: Sympathy flows are common; if AWS stumbles but recovers quickly, rotation into Azure is usually brief.
- Impacted apps (SNAP, RBLX, COIN, UAL): Intraday fades back to VWAP after service restoration often offer higher-probability entries than
chasing initial spikes. - Volatility: Consider tactical long-vol on fresh cloud-disruption headlines; fade vol once AWS status moves to “resolved” across all AZs.
sellers may still be in control—avoid knife-catching.
What Changes Post-Mortem?
Expect customers to revisit multi-region architectures, cross-cloud disaster-recovery plans, and automated health-check circuit breakers.
For the hyperscalers, clearer incident comms and throttling policies reduce uncertainty—the faster the transparency, the smaller the equity drawdown on the next AWS outage 2025-style event.
Bottom Line
The AWS outage 2025 was a sharp reminder that the cloud still runs through a few chokepoints. But the market’s shrug says it all:
AWS’s dominance, speed of mitigation, and client lock-in keep the long-term story intact. For traders, it’s a headline-driven setup—respect VWAP, trade smaller,
and let the status page be your catalyst clock.
Polaris Stock Soars on Indian Motorcycle Sale
Polaris Stock Soars on Indian Motorcycle Sale — What It Means for Harley-Davidson
Deal at a Glance
Indian Motorcycle contributed about **$478 million**, or **7%** of Polaris’ trailing-12-month revenue.
Polaris also preannounced guidance: Q3 top-line in the range of **$1.6B to $1.8B**, with adjusted EPS between **$0.31 and $0.41** — above consensus expectations. The deal is expected to close in early 2026.
Why the Market Loves It
- Indian has long weighed on Polaris’ margins. Separating it frees management to refocus on the core powersports business.
- It crystallizes value through an external valuation, which could support multiple expansions in the remaining business.
- The move gives Polaris flexibility and cleaner earnings leverage, which investors tend to reward.
- Spillover: Harley-Davidson (HOG) reacted positively, climbing ~2.8% intraday, as valuation comparisons and industry optics shift.
Trading Implications & Key Levels
PII (Polaris)
- Price action: Stock rallied ~13.9% on the news to $69.87. Sharp reversal and volume confirm strong interest.
- Support / Resistance: Support zone near **$63–$65**. Resistance in the near term around **$75–$78**. A sustained breakout above $78 could aim toward $90+, depending on spin-off multiples.
- Trade setups: Intraday, look for dip-buy setups into $66–68 with tight stops. Swing trades: holding above $65 keeps bias bullish toward the upper resistance zones.
HOG (Harley-Davidson)
- Harley often trades as a comparator in the motorcycle sector. A firm valuation assigned to Indian could influence multiple tweaks in HOG.
- Resistance near **$28.50**, support near **$24–$25**. Watch for momentum spills: HOG above $28.50 on relative strength vs PII could signal rotational flows.
Sector & Macro Context
The powersports and motorcycle segment has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and soft discretionary spending. This deal injects a catalyst and reorients the narrative toward value extraction and operational focus.
A well-executed spin-off and independent valuation of Indian could reset how the market views “niche motors” in the U.S. recreational vehicle category. For Harley, perception could shift from legacy brand to undervalued name relative to its peers.
Bottom Line
The Polaris Indian Motorcycle sale is a clean slate move that could drive multiples higher. For traders, PII is the name to watch — especially if the spin-out narrative gains traction. HOG’s reaction is worth following for sector spillover moves.