I won’t sit and lie to you like a host of other editors, analysts, and dreamers.
I’ll tell you exactly how it is.
The markets suck at the moment. We’re stuck in a directionless market run by amateurs chasing a dream of further upside.
But here’s the thing. We’re long overdue for a massive sell off…
There is no reason for the markets to be this high. None. The markets are not pricing in reality.
But in a market where folks like to play games, there’s no telling what will happen. We surge 300 one day. The next day, we fall 200. And repeat.
That’s just how it is at the moment.
Consumers are scared to death these days. We can see that in retail spending.
Homeownership rates are at 20-year lows. Unemployment isn’t healthy. The labor participation rate is at multi-year lows.
The savings rate is moving higher, as consumers hoard cash.
Even some of the biggest names on Wall Street are worried.
Former PIMOC boss, Mohamed El-Erian, just moved to a big cash position.
“That’s not great, given that it gets eaten up by inflation. But I think most asset prices have been pushed by central banks to very elevated levels,” he says. “There is a massive gap right now between asset prices and fundamentals.”
The news sent shockwaves through the investing community.
When a guy this smart admits that, it’s tough to disagree. There’s a valuation concern, he says. Returns on investments could very well be negative in the near-term.
To him, cash could outperform stocks and bonds as it did in previous disasters. I’m sure you remember the dot-com and subprime disasters fondly.
Could it mean the next disaster is near?
It’s possible.
Stock funds have seen outflows of up to $44 billion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Equity funds have seen outflows of $6.1 billion over the last two weeks. Investors are concerned, as they should be. The markets have been pushed to extremes.
Granted, not all of us can afford to move into cash if it means giving up current income streams. So we can do the next best thing by protecting our money, and positioning well.
One of our favorite ways to protect for downside is with trailing stop loss orders. Another is to reduce risk per trade. Instead of risking 20% to 30% per trade, halve it.
Know all risks associated with any stocks or bonds bought.
Have ideal entry and exit points for all trades. Never leverage. Know when to cut your losses and move on. It’s essential that you prepare for the worst-case scenario, as a just in case.
We’re cautious moving forward at the moment, as the Dow re-challenges overhead resistance.
Still, we are finding some unique opportunities in the marketplace that we’d like to take full advantage of.
Inside Value Trader
Over the last few months we’ve closed some great winners. In recent weeks, we’ve taken some hits in a directionless market.
But we continue to hold all open positions… and we’re looking to add a new position today.
AT&T (T) – for example – just caught historical support levels. When this happens, we typically see a quick bounce to overhead resistance just above $34 a share. The hope is that we can sneak in for a couple dollars of upside, which would give us a respectable gain on options.
Consider buying to open the AT&T (T) July 2015 33 calls up to $1.10.
And, or consider buying to open the T January 2016 32 calls up to $2.
Ian L. Cooper
Inside Value Trader