Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.As Earnings Take Center Stage, Can the Market Rally Withstand Tariffs, Fed Drama, and Seasonal Headwinds?
As Earnings Season Heats Up, Will the Market Rally Hold?
With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovering near record highs, investors are entering a critical stretch where corporate earnings—not tariff headlines or political noise—will need to do the heavy lifting.
After months of market-moving headlines from the White House and speculation over the future of the Federal Reserve, Wall Street is refocusing on fundamentals. With Big Tech set to report this week and Q2 earnings season in full swing, the next chapter of the 2025 market rally is being written—not in Washington, but on corporate balance sheets.
Earnings Season Arrives Right on Time
So far, the numbers are encouraging. According to Fundstrat, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported have topped estimates, with a median beat of 4%. This earnings strength has already helped push the Nasdaq to a new record and lifted the S&P 500 to within striking distance of all-time highs.
Analysts expect second-quarter earnings growth to hit 5.6%, up from 4.9% projected just a few weeks ago. Some, like State Street’s Michael Arone, are even more bullish, forecasting 9% year-over-year growth. If realized, that would be enough to keep the rally alive—even in the face of rising macro risks.
But it’s not just the numbers that matter—it’s the tone of the outlooks. As U.S. Bank strategist Thomas Hainlin noted, this is the first real chance to hear how companies are managing the impact of tariffs that took effect in April.
Tariffs and Fed Uncertainty: Background Noise or Emerging Risk?
President Trump’s 10% minimum tariff took effect on April 5, and more aggressive levies are threatened for August 1 unless additional trade agreements are reached. Historically, Trump’s rhetoric has been met with skepticism on Wall Street—thanks in part to the now-popular “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—but faith in reversals may be wearing thin.
Moreover, Trump’s public campaign against Fed Chair Jerome Powell briefly rattled markets last week, before a denial from the president cooled investor nerves.
Still, investors remain cautiously optimistic, betting that positive earnings and economic data will outweigh policy risk, at least for now.
What to Watch This Week
A parade of high-impact earnings is on deck. This includes:
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Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday
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Coca-Cola (KO) on Tuesday
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Intel (INTC), Blackstone (BX), Deutsche Bank (DB), and Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) on Thursday
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T-Mobile (TMUS) and AT&T (T) also report midweek.
Investors will be paying close attention to not just earnings per share and revenue, but also spending on artificial intelligence, tariff-related commentary, and forward guidance, especially from Big Tech.
Seasonality Is the Wildcard
While strong earnings could carry the market higher, historical patterns suggest caution. According to SentimenTrader’s Jay Kaeppel, the period from late July to mid-October is statistically the weakest for U.S. equities. Following a rally of more than 25% off the April lows, even bullish strategists suggest it may be time to trim exposure or brace for a pullback.
Former Goldman Sachs strategist Scott Rubner, now at Citadel, warned that corporate buyback support may fade and that unprofitable tech names—many of which have surged—could lead any correction.
The Bottom Line
The summer rally is running strong, powered by resilient earnings and a surprisingly stable economy. But with valuations stretched, seasonal trends turning less favorable, and geopolitical uncertainty simmering, this week’s earnings will be pivotal.
If companies can deliver solid results and offer confident guidance despite the crosswinds of tariffs and monetary policy, the rally could grind higher. But if Big Tech disappoints or forward guidance turns cautious, markets may be in for a late-summer breather.
One thing is clear: The next move in this market won’t be made in Washington or the Fed—it’ll come from the earnings stage. And the spotlight is on.
Are You a Trader or a Gambler?
Are You Trading or Gambling?
In the high-stakes world of the stock market, it can be hard to tell the difference between disciplined trading and outright gambling—especially in an age where commission-free apps, social media hype, and instant gratification blur the lines.
But make no mistake: trading and gambling are not the same thing—unless you make them the same. The difference isn’t in the tools or the market. It’s in the mindset, the method, and the consistency behind every decision you make.
So, ask yourself: Are you trading… or gambling?
1. Trading Is a Business. Gambling Is a Thrill.
Professional traders approach the market the way a CEO runs a company—methodically, strategically, and with measurable goals. Every decision is based on a repeatable process, backed by data and tested over time.
Gamblers, on the other hand, show up for the rush. There’s no edge. No playbook. Just instinct, impulse, and a hope for luck.
If you find yourself chasing trades, doubling down on losses, or switching strategies every week… you might be gambling.
2. Trading Uses Risk Management—gambling Risks It All.
Ask any successful trader, and they’ll tell you: capital preservation is everything. That means using stop losses, sizing positions correctly, and knowing when to walk away.
Gamblers bet big to win big. There’s rarely an exit plan—only hope that the next move pays off. This “all or nothing” mentality might win sometimes, but over the long haul, it’s a one-way ticket to a blown account.
If you’re risking more than you can afford to lose—or letting one bad trade wipe out weeks of progress—you’re not trading. You’re spinning the roulette wheel.
3. Trading Follows a Plan. Gambling Follows a Hunch.
Traders build detailed plans before the bell rings. They know which stocks they’re watching, the levels they care about, their entries, exits, and risk parameters.
Gamblers wake up and “see what’s moving.” They jump into trades without clear setups or reasons, and they stay in too long because they “feel like it’s going to pop.”
If you’re trading based on gut feeling instead of defined setups and rules, you’re not executing a strategy—you’re just guessing.
4. Trading Tracks Performance. Gambling Ignores the Math.
Successful traders journal everything—wins, losses, entry and exit logic, emotional state, and what they’ve learned. They constantly refine their approach and make decisions based on data.
Gamblers only remember the big wins (and conveniently forget the losses). They resist accountability because it forces them to confront a hard truth: they don’t have an edge.
If you’re not tracking your trades or learning from your mistakes, how will you ever improve?
5. Trading Controls Emotion. Gambling Is Driven By It.
Markets are emotional by nature. Fear, greed, revenge—every trader feels them. But the pros have tools and habits to manage those feelings.
Gamblers are their emotions. They FOMO into trades, panic-sell on pullbacks, and revenge-trade after losses. They confuse volatility with opportunity and excitement with skill.
If your trades are emotional reactions instead of calm, calculated decisions, it’s time to step back.
So, Which One Are You?
If you’ve recognized yourself in some of the gambler behaviors above, don’t beat yourself up. Every trader—yes, every single one—has walked that path at some point.
But here’s the good news: you can change it.
With the right education, a rules-based strategy, and a focus on process over outcome, you can shift from gambling to trading. From hope… to skill. From randomness… to results.
The markets don’t care what you want to happen. However, they will reward consistency, discipline, and a competitive edge. Your job is to build that edge—and stick to it.
Why Markets Are Shrugging Off Trump’s Latest Tariff Threats
Why Investors Aren’t Panicking Over Trump’s Tariff Threats—Yet
In a week filled with bold rhetoric and escalating threats from the Trump administration, investors might have expected the stock market to recoil. After all, reports on Friday revealed the White House is considering new tariffs of 15% to 20% on European Union goods—a substantial increase from prior expectations. Financial Times
However, instead of panic, the S&P 500 briefly dipped before rebounding to end the day virtually flat. This muted reaction is becoming a pattern.
Despite headline after headline warning of rising trade tensions, Wall Street has largely stayed the course. Even the so-called “liberation day” tariffs announced back in April—an event that temporarily rattled markets—ultimately proved to be a speed bump rather than a derailment.
So why are investors so calm now?
1. Tariffs Are Seen as a Negotiation Tactic
One prevailing theory is that Trump’s tariff threats are more about leverage than long-term policy. Many professional investors now subscribe to what’s been dubbed the “TACO trade”—Trump Always Chickens Out.
This idea, coined by a columnist at the Financial Times, suggests that Trump’s tough talk is meant to speed up negotiations, and if markets begin to wobble, he’s likely to pull back, just as he did in April when a 90-day tariff delay was announced shortly after a market selloff.
“Frustrated with the slow pace of talks, it seems the president is trying to incentivize trade partners to move faster,” said Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research. According to his conversations with institutional investors, the expectation remains that tariffs will be rolled back once deals are finalized.
2. Legal Hurdles May Neutralize Tariffs Anyway
Another reason for investor calm: the courts. Back in May, federal judges ruled that Trump lacked the authority to enforce his April tariff package. While an injunction allowed them to remain temporarily, many believe future tariffs will face similar legal challenges.
This creates a “wait and see” buffer that allows markets to price in the possibility rather than certainty, thereby mitigating immediate volatility.
3. Strong Earnings Are Taking the Spotlight
The corporate earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, and investors are focusing on fundamentals rather than policy noise. Reports from major banks last week, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America, highlighted resilient consumer credit and economic strength, with low default rates and stable loan portfolios.
Big tech and consumer names are also posting better-than-expected results, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite stay near all-time highs.
4. Economic Data Continues to Impress
Despite inflationary pressure and trade uncertainty, key economic indicators remain strong. The latest employment and retail sales data point to an economy that continues to expand. Add to that the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which finalized key budget and tax measures, and it’s clear why investors feel more grounded than they did in the spring.
“Back in April, we didn’t know how the budget bill was going to come out… Now we know,” said Erik Aarts, senior fixed-income strategist at Touchstone Investments. “Markets have been able to lean into that a little bit.”
The Bottom Line
Markets are far from complacent, but every new tariff headline no longer rattles them. Investors are placing their faith in negotiating bluster, legal challenges, and strong economic fundamentals to weather the storm.
Whether that optimism holds will depend on how aggressively the administration acts—and how long the economy can continue to shrug off policy risk.
For now, the message from Wall Street is clear: It’s going to take more than tariff talk to derail this rally.
Nvidia Nears Record Highs as Trump AI Push and Google Spending Fuel Optimism
Nvidia Stock Surges as AI Momentum Builds from Both Silicon Valley and Washington
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) were on the rise again Thursday morning, buoyed by a surge in optimism around artificial intelligence. The stock climbed 1.1% in premarket trading to $172.64, following a 2.3% gain on Wednesday. With this move, Nvidia is approaching its all-time high closing price of $173, hit just last week.
A combination of public and private sector support for AI development fuels the gains. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Google’s parent company, signaled its commitment to AI infrastructure by increasing its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion—up from $52.5 billion in 2024. A substantial portion of that spend is expected to go toward building and expanding data centers powered by Nvidia’s high-performance AI chips.
Nvidia’s momentum is also being driven by a policy tailwind from Washington. On Wednesday, the Trump administration unveiled a national “action plan” to bolster American dominance in artificial intelligence. Key elements of the initiative include making it easier for tech firms to build domestic data centers—an area where Nvidia’s hardware is a cornerstone.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the initiative during a Fox News interview Wednesday, saying:
“What the president is announcing today is going to accelerate AI innovation in America. He’s going to enable [the] American tech stack to be proliferated around the world at an incredible rate.”
Huang, who was seated in the front row of the White House’s AI Summit, appeared to show strong alignment with the administration’s goals for AI expansion, emphasizing the role of American chipmakers in leading the next wave of global tech infrastructure.
Other semiconductor stocks also saw a lift. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) gained 1.2% in premarket trading, while Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) rose 2.5%.
A Perfect Storm for Nvidia
With both increased corporate investment and supportive government policy aligning, Nvidia appears to be sitting in a sweet spot. The company has already been the poster child of the AI-driven tech rally over the past year, and these latest developments could provide further upside.
As the AI arms race heats up, Nvidia’s dominant position in GPU-based computing, combined with a surge in demand for AI infrastructure, places it at the center of one of the most powerful trends in global technology.