Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Telecom Merger Trading Volatility
Verizon Gets Final California Approval for Frontier Deal — Intraday Trading Implications
Verizon (VZ) received final approval from California regulators to acquire Frontier Communications (FYBR), clearing the last major state hurdle for its $9.6B deal (valued around $20B, including assumed debt at the time of the announcement). Verizon said it expects the acquisition to formally close on January 20, 2026.
For day traders, this is not a “fundamentals” story first — it’s a catalyst-and-positioning story. When uncertainty is removed, order flow shifts, spreads tighten, and you often get a clean, tradeable rotation window at the open. This is where telecom merger trading volatility shows up: sharp headline reactions, quick fades, and then more structured moves once the market digests the news.
Why This Approval Matters (Even If the Deal Is “Old News”)
The market has known the headline for months — but the final approval matters because it collapses the last real “deal risk” discount. California’s approval included concessions (small-business spending, network expansion commitments, discounted plans, and reporting requirements). Whether you love or hate the politics of it, the tape only cares about one thing:
risk removed = positioning changes.
That positioning shift is exactly what creates telecom merger trading volatility intraday: event-driven traders unwind, arbitrage spreads compress, and sector peers get dragged into sympathy moves.
How This Typically Trades Intraday
If you trade the first hour, you’ve seen this movie. The usual sequence looks like this:
- Premarket pop or dip as the headline spreads
- Opening burst (liquidity is highest early)
- Fast fade / profit-taking as event traders exit
- Second move once VWAP and pivots “reclaim authority”
That’s the sweet spot: you’re not predicting the news — you’re trading the structure that forms after it. If you want a reminder of how to keep the open organized and avoid chasing, revisit:
The Key To Trading The Open — Manage Your Work Flow
Intraday Playbook: What to Watch on VZ and FYBR
1) Premarket levels and the first push
Anchor to three numbers before the bell:
- Premarket high
- Premarket low
- VWAP (and the first VWAP reclaim/reject)
The first impulse move is often the noisiest. Your job is to see whether price holds above a key level (acceptance) or snaps back through it (rejection). That transition is where telecom merger trading volatility becomes tradeable instead of chaotic.
For a first-hour framework, pair today’s event with:
First Hour Trading Tactics
2) “Fade vs. Follow” decision
When approvals hit, the first move can be crowded. If you see:
- an opening spike that stalls,
- weak continuation volume,
- and a break back under VWAP or the opening pivot,
you often get a clean fade setup (especially in slower names like telecom).
If you want a classic “busy open” example of fade mechanics:
Fading Opening Gaps On A Very Busy Morning — Three Trades
3) Options and “pinning” behavior
Telecom names can get boxed in by options positioning, especially around big events. If price keeps snapping back to a level repeatedly, treat it as a clue — not a frustration.
Related read:
Call Walls and Put Walls: The Options Market’s Hidden Support and Resistance
Sector Sympathy Trades (Where the Fast Money Often Goes)
When a large telecom deal clears, traders often rotate through:
- telecom peers (watch for sympathy moves and pair trades),
- broad market ETFs if risk-on/risk-off tone shifts,
- and “infrastructure / fiber narrative” pockets when headlines amplify.
The key is to avoid treating the whole session like a headline scalp. Let the market settle, then trade the best two-way structure. That’s why telecom merger trading volatility is usually highest early — and cleaner later, once levels are respected.
Risk: Don’t Let “Good News” Trick You Into Bad Trades
Final approvals can feel like “obvious bullishness,” and that’s where traders get chopped — buying the top of the first move, then selling the bottom of the fade.
If you want a simple discipline reset for news-heavy environments, this one pairs perfectly with today:
Geopolitical Risk For Traders: How to Trade in a High-Headline Environment
Bottom Line
This approval is a clean catalyst — but the trade is never the headline. The trade is the reaction, the unwind, and the second move when structure returns.
If you stay rule-based, you’ll see the same pattern repeat across sectors: spike, fade, settle, then a real opportunity. That’s how you turn telecom merger trading volatility into a repeatable first-hour edge.
For a simple rules-first refresher before the bell:
Rule-Based Intraday Trading
Geopolitical Risk For Traders
Trump’s Iran Tariff Threat: What It Means for Markets and Traders
President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Iran this week by announcing that any country doing business with the Islamic Republic would face a 25 percent tariff on trade with the United States, effective immediately. The statement, delivered via Truth Social, landed just one day after Trump publicly suggested that military action against Iran was under consideration.
This development is not just a diplomatic headline—it is a market-moving event. It raises the stakes for global supply chains, commodities, currencies, and risk sentiment across asset classes. For active market participants, this is a textbook example of geopolitical risk for traders entering the pricing equation.
Why This Matters
According to Trade Data Monitor, more than 100 countries traded with Iran in the first half of 2025. While many of these relationships are already constrained by U.S. sanctions, some of Iran’s largest trading partners include:
- China
- Turkey
- Pakistan
- India
Trump’s proposed policy would force these nations to choose between access to U.S. markets or continued trade with Iran—an economic ultimatum with global consequences.
China’s embassy in Washington pushed back, stating that it “firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” warning that trade wars create no winners.
From a trader’s perspective, this is not just political theater. This is a direct injection of geopolitical risk for traders into pricing models—one that can show up quickly through volatility, liquidity distortions, and emotional order flow.
Rising Unrest = Rising Risk
The tariff announcement comes amid intensifying unrest inside Iran. Activist groups report thousands detained and hundreds killed since nationwide protests began in late December. Iran’s government has imposed an internet blackout, making independent verification impossible.
Trump has publicly stated that Iran is “starting” to cross his threshold for military intervention and has repeated that he would “rescue” Iranians if the government escalates violence against civilians.
Markets do not wait for confirmation. They react to uncertainty. And uncertainty is fuel for volatility.
This is why understanding geopolitical risk for traders is not optional—it is essential.
What This Means for Different Markets
1. Energy Markets (Crude Oil & Natural Gas)
Iran is a major oil producer. Any hint of military conflict or trade blockades can:
- Disrupt supply chains
- Increase shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz
- Drive speculative buying in crude futures
Traders should expect:
- Gap risk
- News-driven spikes
- Violent retracements after emotional moves
This is classic geopolitical risk for traders showing up as headline volatility rather than technical structure.
Related: China’s AI Breakthrough Rekindles Volatility in Big Tech — What Intraday Traders Need to Watch — volatility contexts across sectors can help frame risk expectations. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
2. Equity Markets
Trade wars and tariff threats tend to:
- Pressure multinational companies
- Distort earnings expectations
- Increase defensive sector rotation
Watch for:
- Increased volatility in semiconductors, industrials, and global exporters
- Strength in defense, energy, and domestic-focused stocks
- Sudden index-level re-pricing
When macro risk rises, correlation across stocks tends to rise as well—meaning diversification temporarily fails.
Related: Tesla Sales Decline Trading Impact — understanding how sector rotation and sentiment shifts affect equities. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
3. Currencies and Safe Havens
Geopolitical stress often pushes capital toward:
- U.S. dollar
- Gold
- Treasury bonds
But these flows are rarely smooth. They often appear in bursts, reversals, and false starts—perfect traps for emotionally reactive traders.
This is where understanding geopolitical risk for traders becomes less about prediction and more about execution discipline.
Related: Trader Psychology for the Week Ahead — mindset management during volatile environments. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
The Psychological Trap Traders Fall Into
When headlines like this hit, many traders do one of two things:
- Freeze – afraid to trade because the world feels “unstable”
- Overreact – chasing every spike, every rumor, every candle
Both responses are dangerous.
Markets don’t move on news alone. They move on how that news interacts with existing positioning, liquidity, and structure.
The presence of geopolitical risk for traders does not eliminate opportunity—it simply changes the rules of engagement.
Related: Patience: The Skill Every Trader Thinks They Have… Until They Really Need It — mastering the psychology of risk. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
How to Trade in a High-Headline Environment
- Reduce position size. Volatility expands. Your risk should shrink.
- Trade structure, not emotion. Let price come to your levels.
- Expect false breakouts. Headlines often cause knee-jerk moves that fade.
- Stick to time windows. Emotional trades cluster at the open.
- Be comfortable doing nothing. Not trading is a valid decision.
Professional traders do not attempt to outguess geopolitics. They manage exposure, execution, and discipline.
Final Thought
Trump’s tariff threat against Iran’s trading partners, combined with escalating unrest and talk of military intervention, injects a new layer of uncertainty into global markets.
For long-term investors, this is noise.
For active traders, this is opportunity—if it is approached correctly.
The edge is not in predicting headlines.
The edge is in responding to them with structure, patience, and rules.
That is how professionals navigate geopolitical risk for traders without becoming its next casualty.