Target Slashes Guidance Again as Sales Decline — A Turning Point for the Retail Giant?

Target reported another disappointing quarter, with sales falling for the fourth straight period, and management issued yet another earnings guidance cut. The retailer now faces a critical moment as incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke attempts to reverse a year-long downtrend that has left the stock 36% lower in 2025.

Sales Keep Falling Despite an Earnings Beat

Adjusted third-quarter earnings came in at $1.78 per share, beating expectations of $1.71. But that’s where the good news ends. Sales slipped 1.5% to $25.3 billion, and comparable sales fell 2.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of negative comps.

Executives warned that macro headwinds—uncertainty over the government shutdown, softer labor markets, and inflation sensitivity—continue to weigh on shoppers’ willingness to buy discretionary goods.

The retailer’s latest Target earnings guidance cut lowers full-year EPS to $7–$8, down from $7–$9 previously. GAAP EPS was cut as well.

A New CEO, A Big Turnaround Attempt

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke takes command in February, but he is already moving aggressively. He outlined three pillars for the turnaround:

• Merchandising reinvention — strengthening authority in key categories
• Guest experience upgrades — cleaner stores, better digital integration
• Tech acceleration — including AI tools and smarter fulfillment

To support this, Target will boost capital expenditures by 25% in 2026, pushing annual capex to $5 billion. That includes store remodels, redesigns of fulfillment flows, and efforts to reduce the operational strain that online orders have placed on high-traffic stores.

Still, another Target earnings guidance cut underscores how difficult the road ahead may be.

Target Joins Walmart, Shopify, and Etsy in the AI Commerce Push

Target also announced a partnership with OpenAI, allowing shoppers to buy directly through ChatGPT. This places Target among early adopters of AI-powered commerce, following Walmart, Shopify, and Etsy.

The beta launch next week will let customers purchase multiple items, add fresh food to carts, and select fulfillment methods—all within ChatGPT. Fiddelke framed the initiative as part of a broader strategy to reassert Target’s innovation edge.

Bulls vs Bears: Both Camps Found Ammunition

Analysts were split following the report. JP Morgan’s Christopher Horvers said both sides “have something to point to.” Bears cite weakening demand, deteriorating comps, and the ongoing Target earnings guidance cut. Bulls point to improving inventory discipline, healthy margins, and extremely discounted valuation multiples.

Oppenheimer’s Rupesh Parikh maintained an Outperform rating, noting that long-term investors should take advantage of weakness—though volatility may persist until comps turn positive again.

Trading Implications for TGT

📉 Short-Term Bias: Weakness Into Q4

The market reacted negatively to the Target earnings guidance cut, pushing shares lower in early trading. For day traders, the following setups may emerge:

• ORB downside breaks under premarket lows
• Short VWAP rejections during the morning session
• Fade rallies into $130–$132 resistance zones

📈 Swing Traders: Watch for Capitulation

With the stock down 36% YTD and valuation compressed, TGT could become a mean-reversion candidate if:

• RSI reaches oversold levels
• Price stabilizes above major weekly support (~$118–$120)
• Consumer data surprises to the upside

But until comps turn positive, the Target earnings guidance cut will likely keep pressure on the stock.

Bottom Line

Target’s challenges are real: falling sales, cautious customers, and a tough retail landscape. The company’s transformation strategy—AI innovation, store upgrades, and fulfillment restructuring—could pay off, but the payoff won’t be immediate.

Traders should brace for continued volatility as the market digests the latest Target earnings guidance cut and evaluates whether 2026 will finally mark the beginning of a recovery.

Related:

Target (TGT) Q3 2025 earnings
Target CEO Change Overshadows Earnings Report – TraderInsight
Target Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings

Nvidia Earnings Smash Expectations and Ignite AI Stocks Across the Board

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter on Wednesday, easily beating Wall Street expectations and setting the stage for what traders are already calling a Nvidia earnings breakout heading into 2025. Shares surged in after-hours trading as the company once again proved that AI demand remains insatiable.

Blowout Numbers Across the Board

For the October quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, beating the $1.26 consensus. Revenue hit $57 billion, topping expectations for $54.9 billion. It was another monster quarter driven almost entirely by AI chips and data center demand.

Nvidia’s data center business — now the core of the company — grew 66% year over year to $51.2 billion, surpassing analyst models and reinforcing why the Nvidia earnings breakout narrative is dominating tech markets.

Guidance: Simply No Slowdown in Sight

Nvidia projected midpoint January-quarter revenue of $65 billion, well ahead of the $62.2 billion consensus.

Even more remarkable: CFO Colette Kress noted this guidance assumes zero revenue from China due to export restrictions. That means upside remains if any allowances or exceptions are granted in early 2025.

AI Demand Is Still “Sold Out”

CEO Jensen Huang made it clear that the AI boom is far from over. Blackwell GPU demand is overwhelming supply, and cloud providers continue to bid aggressively for any available compute capacity.

“Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. We’ve entered a virtuous cycle of AI.”
— Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO

With enterprises adopting AI far faster than expected, and agentic AI applications emerging as a new growth catalyst, the Nvidia earnings breakout trend is likely to extend into 2025 and beyond.

Addressing GPU Depreciation Concerns

Some analysts have questioned whether AI chips depreciate too quickly to justify massive data center spending. Nvidia pushed back hard: Kress emphasized that CUDA compatibility extends the life of GPUs far longer than typical hardware cycles.

“A100 GPUs we shipped six years ago are still running at full utilization today,” she said — another reason the Nvidia earnings breakout story remains intact.

Market Reaction and AI Stock Moves

Nvidia shares jumped 4.7% in after-hours trading. Other AI stocks followed:

• AMD initially traded higher before pulling back slightly
• Alphabet gained over 3%
• Palantir traded higher before retracing

Traders are now positioning for continuation setups across the AI sector, as the Nvidia earnings breakout provides macro-level confirmation that the AI cycle remains intact.

Trading Insights for NVDA and Related AI Names

📈 Nvidia (NVDA)

• Watch for an Opening Range Breakout above premarket highs
• Gap-and-go potential if volume accelerates during first 15 minutes
• Strong support zones: $178 → $182

📈 AMD (AMD)

• Likely to piggyback off Nvidia momentum
• Fades or reversals at key pivots ($226, $232) could offer intraday scalp setups

📈 Palantir (PLTR)

• Remains a high-beta AI sympathy play
• Look for VWAP reclaim trades on morning weakness

📈 Alphabet (GOOGL)

• Strong response to Nvidia’s results reinforces AI advertising & cloud thesis
• Breaks above $295 could trigger a multi-day continuation move

Bottom Line

This quarter wasn’t just another beat — it was confirmation that AI demand remains extraordinarily strong, GPU supply remains sold out, and hyperscalers are accelerating their infrastructure spending into 2025.

The Nvidia earnings breakout isn’t just about Nvidia — it’s a rising tide for the entire AI ecosystem.

For traders, today’s report offers a clear message: AI momentum trades remain alive, well, and tradable.

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