Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive

Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.

Positive Mindset in Trading: What Performance Psychology Reveals About Staying Resilient and Profitable

In the high-pressure world of trading, every decision counts. Success hinges not only on technical skill and strategy, but also on the mental frameworks that shape a trader’s response to wins, losses, and uncertainty. One of the most powerful mental tools a trader can develop is a positive mindset. Backed by decades of research in performance psychology and trader psychology, a positive mindset in trading is now recognized as a critical edge—enhancing focus, emotional control, adaptability, and long-term resilience.


The Science Behind a Positive Mindset in Trading

Performance psychology studies how people perform under pressure in domains like sports, business, and high-stakes decision-making. A common finding across this body of research is that a positive mindset leads to better outcomes—not because it ignores risks, but because it creates the mental space for persistence, focus, and rapid recovery from mistakes.

In trading, where setbacks are inevitable, optimism and self-belief can determine whether a trader bounces back or spirals into frustration and revenge trading.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger, trading psychologist and author of The Daily Trading Coach, emphasizes:

“A positive mindset in trading doesn’t deny challenges—it reframes them as opportunities to learn and adapt. Successful traders treat setbacks as data, not personal failures.”


Barbara Fredrickson and the Broaden-and-Build Theory

One of the most influential contributions to understanding the role of positivity in performance comes from Dr. Barbara Fredrickson, a psychologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her Broaden-and-Build Theory of Positive Emotions suggests that positive emotions—such as joy, gratitude, and hope—don’t just feel good in the moment. They actively expand cognitive capacity and build psychological resources over time.

Fredrickson found that:

  • Positive emotions broaden attention, enabling better pattern recognition and problem-solving.

  • They enhance creativity and flexibility, which are crucial in adapting to fast-moving markets.

  • Repeated positive experiences build emotional resilience, helping traders recover faster from losses or bad trades.

In contrast, negative emotions narrow focus and trigger a fight-or-flight response, which can lead to impulsive trading decisions and poor risk management.


Benefits of a Positive Mindset in Trading

A positive mindset in trading helps with more than just emotional well-being—it directly supports performance. Here’s how:

  1. Improved Decision-Making: Positive emotions lead to better risk-reward analysis and less cognitive bias.

  2. Faster Recovery from Losses: Optimistic traders are more likely to reflect, adjust, and return to their plan after a setback.

  3. Increased Focus and Energy: Traders with a positive outlook report higher energy and longer sustained attention during trading hours.

  4. Better Discipline: Positivity builds self-control, making it easier to follow rules and avoid impulsive trades.

  5. Long-Term Resilience: Over time, a positive mindset creates a buffer against burnout and emotional fatigue.


Strategies to Cultivate a Positive Trading Mindset

Building a positive mindset in trading is a daily practice, not a one-time fix. Here are some evidence-based strategies:

  • Start with Gratitude: Journaling 3 positive things each morning primes the brain for optimism.

  • Practice Self-Compassion: Talk to yourself the way you would coach a peer—not with criticism, but with constructive support.

  • Visualize Success and Adaptability: Mentally rehearse not just winning trades, but how you’ll calmly handle adversity.

  • Reframe Losses as Data: Instead of thinking “I failed,” ask “What did this teach me about the market—or myself?”

  • Create Positive Routines: Start the day with uplifting habits—music, movement, or a walk—before facing the trading desk.


The Trader’s Edge: Positivity as a Skill

Many traders focus on developing technical systems or finding the perfect indicator. But the traders who last—and thrive—often credit their success to mastering the mental game. A positive mindset in trading is not about ignoring market risks or “thinking happy thoughts” in the face of losses. It’s about cultivating the mental clarity, flexibility, and emotional strength to trade with consistency and purpose.

As Dr. Fredrickson puts it:

“Positive emotions don’t just change the contents of your mind. They change its capacity.”

That expanded capacity is exactly what separates good traders from great ones.


The research is clear: a positive mindset in trading enhances emotional resilience, supports disciplined execution, and helps traders adapt to a dynamic market environment. Backed by performance psychology and grounded in the Broaden-and-Build theory, positivity is not just a nice-to-have—it’s a high-performance tool.

If you’re looking to elevate your trading, it may be time to focus not just on your charts—but on your mindset.

Weight Loss Drug Market

The Weight Loss Drug Market: Chaos, Consolidation, and Trading Opportunities

TraderInsight • June 24, 2025 • Pharma, GLP-1, Telehealth

The weight loss drug market is undergoing another shake-up. Compounded GLP-1 versions are gone, direct-to-consumer pricing is here, and telehealth partnerships are unraveling.
For traders, that means volatility in Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and telehealth stocks like Hims & Hers.

From shortages to shutdown

For more than a year, compounding pharmacies filled the gap when branded Wegovy (Novo) and Zepbound (Lilly) couldn’t meet demand.
Knockoff semaglutide versions sold for $200–300/month, far below Wegovy’s $1,350 list price. By early 2025, more than 1 million patients were on compounded drugs.

That ended May 22, when the FDA declared shortages over and barred large-scale compounding. Patients lost access overnight.

What’s next for patients?

  • Cash-pay options: Novo and Lilly now sell branded drugs direct-to-consumer for ~$499/month. Novo even offered a $199 promo month.
  • Telehealth tie-ins: Firms like Ro, LifeMD, and Teladoc have struck deals to distribute discounted branded versions.
  • Breakdown risk: Novo’s partnership with Hims collapsed this week, wiping 30% off Hims’ stock in one session.

Lingering gray areas

Some telehealth providers still advertise compounded semaglutide at $165/month under the “personalized prescription” loophole.
Novo accuses them of hiding behind “false guise” to keep competing with Wegovy. The FDA has yet to draw a clear enforcement line.

Winners and losers

  • Eli Lilly (LLY): Prescription data shows Zepbound sales +24% QoQ. Analysts view Lilly as the long-term winner.
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO): Wegovy growth is slower (+5–6% QoQ). Partnership disputes add headline risk.
  • Hims & Hers (HIMS): Shares collapsed on Novo split. Remains a volatile day-trading vehicle.
  • Telehealth sector: Partnerships with Lilly may provide stability, but regulatory risk is high.

Trading setups

Ticker Bias Key Level Setup
LLY Bullish $690.50 support Buy dips for swing into $716.50–$739 on strong prescription trends.
NVO Neutral / Watch $57.05 resistance Breakout above $57.05 targets $62.25; failure risks pullback to $47.50.
HIMS Speculative Short-term $52.00 – $59.00 Gap fades possible. High-risk intraday scalp candidate.

Bottom line

The weight loss drug market is still messy. Novo and Lilly are consolidating control, but telehealth players face turbulence.

For traders, that means focus on LLY for strength, NVO for breakout potential, and HIMS as a speculative volatility play.

Expect headlines to keep this group in motion for months to come.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Pharma and telehealth stocks carry regulatory and competitive risks.

 

TraderInsight Premium Trading Setup Guide: Black Friday Edition

Level Up Your Trading Gear for 2026

Black Friday is here — and for traders, it’s one of the best times of the year to upgrade your tools, tech, and trading environment.
Whether you’re just starting out or already running a multi-monitor command center, this weekend offers an opportunity to level up your hardware, sharpen your skills, and make sure your trading infrastructure supports your goals for the year ahead.

At TraderInsight, we’ve put together a three-tier guide to help you build or upgrade your ideal trading setup — from budget-friendly to professional-grade.
We’ve also included recommended books and accessories to round out your trading edge.


🟩 Tier 1: Entry-Level Trader Setup

Perfect for: New traders, mobile traders, and anyone upgrading from an everyday computer.

This tier focuses on reliability, mobility, and clean performance — enough power to run your brokerage platform, charting tools, scanners,
and research browsers without strain.

Recommended Hardware

  • Dell 16 Plus 2-in-1 Laptop
    A superb hybrid device with plenty of power for charts and scanners, while remaining light enough for travel.
  • LG Gram 17″ Touchscreen
    A lightweight machine with a large display, ideal for traders who need screen space without committing to a desktop.

Recommended Accessories

Recommended Books

Why This Tier Works:
It’s affordable, fast, and flexible — excellent for first-hour trading strategies like Around the Horn, Opening Gap, and Volatility Bands.


🟦 Tier 2: Intermediate Trader Setup

Perfect for: Active traders, regular War Room participants, and Boot Camp alumni.

This tier supports more charts, more scans, and more multitasking — ideal for traders who run multiple platforms simultaneously.

Recommended Hardware

Recommended Monitor Layout

Three-Monitor Setup (27″)

  • Center: Execution platform (RealTick)
  • Left: Scanners (XRV, Volatility, Gaps)
  • Right: Bookmap / Options flow / News

Recommended Books

Why This Tier Works:
Ideal for traders who want fast execution during the first hour and smooth performance during midday volatility.


🟥 Tier 3: Pro TraderInsight Trading Setup

Perfect for: Full-time traders, advanced War Room members, coaches, and those running multiple platforms, analysis tools, and heavy workloads.

This setup is designed for maximum reliability, zero latency, and the ability to run several platforms at once — RealTick, Bookmap, Thinkorswim, Python scripts, scanners, recording tools, and more.

Recommended Hardware

Professional Monitor Layout

Six-Monitor Tower or Array

  • Top row: Market internals, volatility dashboards, futures
  • Middle row: RealTick + primary symbols
  • Side monitors: Bookmap, scanners, news feeds

Recommended Books:

Why This Tier Works:
Ultimate power, ultimate reliability — and no bottlenecks when markets are moving fast.


TraderInsight Black Friday Add-Ons

These items elevate any setup, regardless of tier.

Monitors

Peripherals

Desk & Comfort


Final Thoughts

Whether you’re upgrading your laptop, expanding your monitor setup, or building a full-scale trading command center, Black Friday is the moment to get the most value for your investment.

Your trading tools should support your consistency, precision, and confidence — and this guide is designed to help you make smart, strategic upgrades that will serve you all year long.

If you’d like a personalized setup recommendation based on your trading style, just let us know — we’re happy to build a custom configuration.

Target Earnings Guidance Cut

Target Slashes Guidance Again as Sales Decline — A Turning Point for the Retail Giant?

Target reported another disappointing quarter, with sales falling for the fourth straight period, and management issued yet another earnings guidance cut. The retailer now faces a critical moment as incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke attempts to reverse a year-long downtrend that has left the stock 36% lower in 2025.

Target earnings guidance cut

Sales Keep Falling Despite an Earnings Beat

Adjusted third-quarter earnings came in at $1.78 per share, beating expectations of $1.71. But that’s where the good news ends. Sales slipped 1.5% to $25.3 billion, and comparable sales fell 2.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of negative comps.

Executives warned that macro headwinds—uncertainty over the government shutdown, softer labor markets, and inflation sensitivity—continue to weigh on shoppers’ willingness to buy discretionary goods.

The retailer’s latest Target earnings guidance cut lowers full-year EPS to $7–$8, down from $7–$9 previously. GAAP EPS was cut as well.

A New CEO, A Big Turnaround Attempt

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke takes command in February, but he is already moving aggressively. He outlined three pillars for the turnaround:

  • Merchandising reinvention — strengthening authority in key categories
  • Guest experience upgrades — cleaner stores, better digital integration
  • Tech acceleration — including AI tools and smarter fulfillment

To support this, Target will boost capital expenditures by 25% in 2026, pushing annual capex to $5 billion. That includes store remodels, redesigns of fulfillment flows, and efforts to reduce the operational strain that online orders have placed on high-traffic stores.

Still, another Target earnings guidance cut underscores how difficult the road ahead may be.

Target Joins Walmart, Shopify, and Etsy in the AI Commerce Push

Target also announced a partnership with OpenAI, allowing shoppers to buy directly through ChatGPT. This places Target among early adopters of AI-powered commerce, following Walmart, Shopify, and Etsy.

The beta launch next week will let customers purchase multiple items, add fresh food to carts, and select fulfillment methods—all within ChatGPT. Fiddelke framed the initiative as part of a broader strategy to reassert Target’s innovation edge.

Bulls vs Bears: Both Camps Found Ammunition

Analysts were split following the report. JP Morgan’s Christopher Horvers said both sides “have something to point to.” Bears cite weakening demand, deteriorating comps, and the ongoing Target earnings guidance cut. Bulls point to improving inventory discipline, healthy margins, and extremely discounted valuation multiples.

Oppenheimer’s Rupesh Parikh maintained an Outperform rating, noting that long-term investors should take advantage of weakness—though volatility may persist until comps turn positive again.

Trading Implications for TGT

📉 Short-Term Bias: Weakness Into Q4

The market reacted negatively to the Target earnings guidance cut, pushing shares lower in early trading. For day traders, the following setups may emerge:

  • ORB downside breaks under premarket lows
  • Short VWAP rejections during the morning session
  • Fade rallies into $130–$132 resistance zones

📈 Swing Traders: Watch for Capitulation

With the stock down 36% YTD and valuation compressed, TGT could become a mean-reversion candidate if:

  • RSI reaches oversold levels
  • Price stabilizes above major weekly support (~$118–$120)
  • Consumer data surprises to the upside

But until comps turn positive, the Target earnings guidance cut will likely keep pressure on the stock.

Bottom Line

Target’s challenges are real: falling sales, cautious customers, and a tough retail landscape. The company’s transformation strategy—AI innovation, store upgrades, and fulfillment restructuring—could pay off, but the payoff won’t be immediate.

Traders should brace for continued volatility as the market digests the latest Target earnings guidance cut and evaluates whether 2026 will finally mark the beginning of a recovery.

Related:

Target (TGT) Q3 2025 earnings
Target CEO Change Overshadows Earnings Report – TraderInsight
Target Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings

 

 

Nvidia Earnings Smash Expectations

Nvidia Earnings Smash Expectations and Ignite AI Stocks Across the Board

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter on Wednesday, easily beating Wall Street expectations and setting the stage for what traders are already calling a Nvidia earnings breakout heading into 2025. Shares surged in after-hours trading as the company once again proved that AI demand remains insatiable.

Nvidia earnings breakout

Blowout Numbers Across the Board

For the October quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, beating the $1.26 consensus. Revenue hit $57 billion, topping expectations for $54.9 billion. It was another monster quarter driven almost entirely by AI chips and data center demand.

Nvidia’s data center business — now the core of the company — grew 66% year over year to $51.2 billion, surpassing analyst models and reinforcing why the Nvidia earnings breakout narrative is dominating tech markets.

Guidance: Simply No Slowdown in Sight

Nvidia projected midpoint January-quarter revenue of $65 billion, well ahead of the $62.2 billion consensus.

Even more remarkable: CFO Colette Kress noted this guidance assumes zero revenue from China due to export restrictions. That means upside remains if any allowances or exceptions are granted in early 2025.

AI Demand Is Still “Sold Out”

CEO Jensen Huang made it clear that the AI boom is far from over. Blackwell GPU demand is overwhelming supply, and cloud providers continue to bid aggressively for any available compute capacity.

“Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. We’ve entered a virtuous cycle of AI.”
— Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO

With enterprises adopting AI far faster than expected, and agentic AI applications emerging as a new growth catalyst, the Nvidia earnings breakout trend is likely to extend into 2025 and beyond.

Addressing GPU Depreciation Concerns

Some analysts have questioned whether AI chips depreciate too quickly to justify massive data center spending. Nvidia pushed back hard: Kress emphasized that CUDA compatibility extends the life of GPUs far longer than typical hardware cycles.

“A100 GPUs we shipped six years ago are still running at full utilization today,” she said — another reason the Nvidia earnings breakout story remains intact.

Market Reaction and AI Stock Moves

Nvidia shares jumped 4.7% in after-hours trading. Other AI stocks followed:

  • AMD initially traded higher before pulling back slightly
  • Alphabet gained over 3%
  • Palantir traded higher before retracing

Traders are now positioning for continuation setups across the AI sector, as the Nvidia earnings breakout provides macro-level confirmation that the AI cycle remains intact.

Trading Insights for NVDA and Related AI Names

📈 Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Watch for an Opening Range Breakout above premarket highs
  • Gap-and-go potential if volume accelerates during first 15 minutes
  • Strong support zones: $178 → $182

📈 AMD (AMD)

  • Likely to piggyback off Nvidia momentum
  • Fades or reversals at key pivots ($226, $232) could offer intraday scalp setups

📈 Palantir (PLTR)

  • Remains a high-beta AI sympathy play
  • Look for VWAP reclaim trades on morning weakness

📈 Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • Strong response to Nvidia’s results reinforces AI advertising & cloud thesis
  • Breaks above $295 could trigger a multi-day continuation move

Bottom Line

This quarter wasn’t just another beat — it was confirmation that AI demand remains extraordinarily strong, GPU supply remains sold out, and hyperscalers are accelerating their infrastructure spending into 2025.

The Nvidia earnings breakout isn’t just about Nvidia — it’s a rising tide for the entire AI ecosystem.

For traders, today’s report offers a clear message: AI momentum trades remain alive, well, and tradable.

Related articles:
Nvidia AI Earnings Outlook Amid Market Volatility – TraderInsight
AI Chip Race: Who Will Dominate the Market? – TraderInsight
Google, Meta, and Microsoft Spend on AI – TraderInsight
Nvidia beat and raise should wow its critics, and the stock soars