Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Figma Earnings Miss
Figma earnings miss: What traders need to know now
Figma’s first report as a public company came in hot on revenue growth—but cool on expectations—sending shares sharply lower after hours.
Below is the fast read for day-traders and swing-traders, followed by deeper context and scenarios.
Key numbers at a glance
- Q2 revenue: $249.6M (+41% y/y) vs. ~$250M consensus (slight miss)
- Net income: $846K (essentially breakeven) vs. Street expecting +$0.09 EPS
- Q3 guide (revenue): $263M–$265M (roughly in-line to modestly above)
- FY25 guide (revenue): $1.021B–$1.025B (in-line)
- After-hours move: ~-10% on the release
- Valuation: ~200× ’25E EPS vs. Adobe ~17× (premium multiple)
Coverage snapshot: 11 analysts tracked by FactSet—4 Buy, 7 Hold (lukewarm overall).
Why the stock got hit
- Expectations > results: Revenue grew fast but landed just shy of consensus; FY/Q3 outlook was fine on paper yet not the “beat-and-raise” that a premium multiple often demands.
- Multiple risk: At ~200× earnings vs. mature peers in the teens, any wobble gets punished.
- AI debate: Some fear AI could compress workflows and seats; bulls counter that new AI features (e.g., prototyping tools) expand the platform. Street is split.
- Competition & disruption: Incumbents and newer entrants alike continue to press, adding uncertainty to share gains and pricing power.
Actionable angles (1-minute read)
| Trader | Setups & Triggers | Risk Framing |
|---|---|---|
| Day-Trader | Gap-down open: watch premarket low and VWAP. Short the fail if rallies reject VWAP with declining tape; fade the flush only on capitulation + reclaimed VWAP with rising volume. |
Size down early; use HOD/LOD and VWAP as hard invalidation. Avoid mid-range churn between VWAP and first 15-minute extremes. |
| Swing | Look for a higher low above the IPO-anchor or 10-DMA before initiating long risk. Alternatively, wait for a base-and-break through the first post-earnings balance high. |
Place stops under the most recent swing low; don’t average down into a sliding multiple-compression tape. |
Pro tip: Anchor VWAP to the IPO date (Jul 31) to gauge where longer-term participants are “in.”
What happened & why it mattered
The Figma earnings miss was modest on the top line, but when a name carries a venture-grade multiple in public markets, “good” isn’t enough—investors want unmistakable upside vs. consensus and a confident path to operating leverage.
Guidance that’s merely in-line can still feel like a downgrade when expectations are stretched.
Beyond the print, sentiment was already cooling across some high-profile 2025 debuts that sprinted out of the gate before retracing.
Figma still trades well above its IPO price despite volatility. Still, performance clusters in this cohort have grown more selective as the market reprices AI hopes, competitive intensity, and the cost of capital.
Bull vs. bear case (condensed)
Bullish tells
- Durable >30% revenue growth off a large base.
- Platform expansion (design → collaboration → prototyping) with AI features that could increase adoption.
- Brand strength in product/design orgs; long runway for enterprise seat growth.
Bearish tells
- Premium multiple leaves little room for execution hiccups.
- Competitive overlap with large platforms and emergent AI-native tools.
- Macro/IT budgets and AI efficiency gains may slow seat expansion or pricing power.
Scenarios to plan for
- Trend continuation lower: Early VWAP rejection with lower highs → favor follow-through shorts into measured supports; cover into exhaustion wicks.
- Mean-reversion bounce: Capitulation flush + reclaim of VWAP/first resistance → probe longs with tight stops; partials at prior intraday supply.
- Range day: Respect balance highs/lows; fade edges only with confirmation (failed break + volume dry-up).
Bottom line
After the Figma earnings miss, price will likely trade in a tug-of-war between premium expectations and solid—yet not spectacular—execution.
In our playbook, that means letting VWAP do the talking, trading the reaction (not the headline), and sizing risk to the reality that multiple compression moves fast.
Alphabet Antitrust Ruling
Alphabet antitrust ruling sends shares to a record high
A federal judge issued targeted remedies in the Google search case—no breakup, no ban on default-search payments—fueling a sharp rally in Alphabet and a relief pop in Apple.
Updated September 3, 2025
Alphabet stock closed up 9.14% at $230.66—an all-time high—after the Alphabet antitrust ruling delivered limited remedies that avoid structural break-ups while imposing conduct restrictions aimed at future competition. The relief rally reflected investors’ view that the operational and financial impact will be manageable relative to worst-case scenarios that had loomed over Google’s core search business.
What the Alphabet antitrust ruling does—and doesn’t—do
- No forced divestitures. Google is not required to sell Chrome.
- Default payments continue. Google may continue to pay partners (including Apple) for default placement, though the court noted it can revisit aspects of that arrangement.
- No exclusivity. Google is barred from exclusive distribution contracts covering Search, Chrome, Assistant, or the Gemini app.
- Data access for rivals. Google must share specific search-index data with competitors—potentially aiding AI-forward challengers.
- Preloads allowed. Non-exclusive preloading of Google services can continue.
How AI reshaped the Alphabet antitrust ruling
Judge Amit Mehta emphasized that the rise of generative AI altered competitive dynamics since his 2024 liability finding, citing new threats from AI chat products and ordering remedies that “pry open” general search while also guarding against copy-paste tactics in GenAI distribution.
Apple’s stake in the outcome
Apple shares rose as investors digested that Google’s default-search payments—estimated around $20 billion annually—were not barred. Continuation of revenue-sharing is a clear near-term positive for Apple’s Services line.
Market reaction and next steps
Alphabet’s record close underscores relief that headline risks receded. Analysts framed the remedies as manageable; some noted the company may forgo a broad appeal. Any appeal, compliance mechanics for data-sharing, and monitoring of partner deals will shape the long-tail impact.
Bottom line: the Alphabet antitrust ruling curbs exclusivity and opens the door to data access while leaving Google’s core business model—and default placements—largely intact. For now, investors are treating it as clarity, not calamity.
Trump Administration Locks Intel Into Foundry Business
Trump Administration Locks Intel Into Foundry Business with Equity Stake
Warrants as Leverage
The agreement includes a five-year warrant that allows the government to acquire another 5 per cent of Intel at $20 per share if the company’s stake in the foundry business drops below 51 per cent. “I don’t think there’s a high likelihood that we would take our stake below the 50 per cent,” Zinsner said, describing the warrants as “friction” meant to prevent a divestiture.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the Department of Commerce is still finalizing the deal.
Intel Under Pressure
Analysts, including Citi and some former Intel board members, have long called for Intel to shed its foundry unit. Rival chipmaker Qualcomm has expressed interest in acquiring it, and investor discontent mounted after Intel ousted Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger, the architect of its foundry strategy, in December. His successor, Lip-Bu Tan, is tasked with shoring up the company’s finances while keeping the foundry plan intact.
Funding Certainty and Customer Perception
Intel received $5.7 billion of the investment this week, with another $3.2 billion contingent on meeting Department of Defense milestones. Zinsner said converting the grants to equity “effectively guaranteed that we’d get the cash,” insulating Intel from capital-market volatility.
He also noted the government stake could enhance Intel’s credibility with prospective customers, though major players such as Nvidia, Apple, and Qualcomm have yet to place orders with Intel’s foundry.
Other Deals in Motion
In parallel, Intel has been raising cash through asset sales and external investments. The company sold $1 billion in Mobileye shares and is close to selling 51 per cent of its Altera unit to private equity firm Silver Lake. SoftBank also invested $2 billion in Intel last week.
U.S. Tariffs On Small Packages
Global End of De Minimis: Understanding U.S. tariffs on small packages
The U.S. has begun charging duties on all inbound parcels—regardless of value—after suspending the long-standing de minimis waiver. Here’s what changed, why it happened, and how it affects consumers, merchants, and logistics networks.
What changed—and why it matters
Policymakers ended the $800 de minimis threshold that had allowed low-value items to enter duty-free. Postal operators and carriers must now transmit detailed electronic data on each parcel so customs can assess charges. For shoppers, this means checkout totals may include new duty, tax, and handling lines; for merchants, compliance and data quality become critical as U.S. tariffs on small packages apply to every incoming parcel.
Context: Authorities say small-parcel volumes soared over the past decade and that some shippers exploited the waiver for trans-shipment, undervaluation, and illicit goods. The policy aims to standardize treatment across origins and tighten enforcement.
Immediate ripple effects
- Postal slowdowns: Some national posts paused or restricted U.S. parcel services while updating duty-collection and data systems.
- Price convergence: Direct-from-factory bargains may narrow as duties, taxes, and brokerage reduce the gap versus domestic retail.
- Data discipline: Missing HS codes or vague descriptions can trigger delays, inspections, or penalties.
How duties are assessed during the transition
A temporary bridge allows certain senders to use flat fees while full origin-based rates come online. After the window closes, standard tariff schedules apply. Commercial express carriers already collect at purchase; postal channels will increasingly do the same as systems mature.
Who feels it most
- Cross-border marketplaces & fast-fashion apps: Margin pressure rises as logistics and landed costs increase.
- U.S. SMB importers: Micro-batch restocks may carry higher per-unit costs; consider consolidating shipments.
- Domestic retailers: A relative tailwind if imported ultra-cheap alternatives become less price-dominant.
For platforms shipping directly to U.S. consumers, U.S. tariffs on small packages compress unit economics and force better product-level data, from HS classification to declared value.
Action items for shoppers and sellers
- Check landed costs upfront. Duties, taxes, and brokerage fees may appear as separate lines at checkout.
- Prefer transparent channels. Couriers with advance clearance can reduce uncertainty during the changeover.
- Level up product data. Provide precise HS codes, origin, and materials to minimize holds.
- Consolidate when feasible. Fewer, larger consignments can lower per-item logistics overhead under U.S. tariffs on small packages.
Enforcement and compliance
Authorities will emphasize advanced electronic data, risk scoring, and spot checks. Expect closer scrutiny of repeat offenders in undervaluation, ambiguous descriptions, or origin masking. Clear documentation, responsive broker support, and accurate declarations help avoid delays as U.S. tariffs on small packages become the default regime.
Quick FAQ
Will everything cost more? Not everything, but many low-ticket imports will see added duty and fees, especially items that previously arrived duty-free under the old threshold.
Who collects the money? Depending on the channel, duties may be collected at checkout, by the carrier before delivery, or billed post-clearance. The accuracy of advanced data accelerates the process, particularly as U.S. tariffs on small packages are applied.
The bottom line
This policy is a structural reset for cross-border e-commerce. Prices on some imports will rise, postal networks may be choppy as systems update, and compliance will matter more than ever. For consumers and SMBs alike, understanding how U.S. tariffs on small packages are calculated—and building those costs and timelines into purchases and inventory plans—will help avoid surprises.
Call Walls and Put Walls
Call Walls & Put Walls: The Options Market’s Hidden Support and Resistance
Most traders mark their charts with pivots, VWAP, or volume-by-price levels. These tools help frame support and resistance. But another force doesn’t show up on a candlestick chart unless you’re looking at open interest: options positioning. Two key elements are call walls and put walls. They’re options-driven levels that often behave like invisible ceilings and floors for price.
Call Open Interest Forms Resistance
A call wall forms at a strike price with huge call open interest. Market makers who sold those calls are short options and hedge by buying shares. As the price approaches the strike, the call delta rises, and hedgers have typically accumulated most of the stock they need. The incremental buying flow tapers right at the wall, so upward momentum often stalls—the wall behaves like resistance.
Put Open Interest Forms Support
A put wall forms at a strike with substantial put open interest. Option sellers hedge by shorting shares as the price moves down. Near the wall, the need for additional shorting slows while bargain hunters and short-covering flows appear, so the wall often acts like support.
Why Do Walls Cause Reversals?
- Hedging demand dries up: Into a call wall, the steady hedger bid that helped lift price fades. Into a put wall, steady hedger supply fades.
- Positioning psychology: Longs take profits into call walls; shorts cover into put walls. These behaviors reinforce reversals.
- Liquidity pockets: Large open interest concentrates activity at specific strikes, amplifying these effects.
When Walls Break: Why Moves Can Accelerate
If strong order flow pushes through a wall, hedging flows can flip and accelerate the move:
- Above a call wall: Short-call market makers may need to buy more stock as calls go deeper in the money—fuel for a breakout.
- Below a put wall: Short-put market makers may need to short more stock as puts gain value—fuel for a breakdown.
How to Trade Call Walls and Put Walls
- Frame the range: Identify the dominant put wall below and call wall above the current price. Expect oscillation between them, especially into expirations.
- Plan reversals: Treat call walls as resistance and put walls as support. Look for confirmation with pivots, VWAP, and tape.
- Prepare for breakouts: If price pushes through a wall on convincing volume/tape, anticipate hedging-flip acceleration.
Quick Example: TSLA $350 Calls
If TSLA trades at $345 with heavy open interest at the $350 calls, $350 becomes a likely call wall. Price often hesitates there. A clean move and hold above $350, accompanied by high volume, can trigger hedging demand and a rapid leg higher.
FAQ
Do walls always hold?
No. They’re dynamic, not guarantees. Strong order flow, catalysts, or time-to-expiry effects can overwhelm them and produce trend acceleration.
How often should I update my walls?
Check daily for near-dated expirations and weekly for further-dated chains. Shifts in open interest can move the walls.
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy: What’s Behind the Troubles and Can It Recover?
Only months after emerging from restructuring, Spirit Airlines bankruptcy headlines are back. The airline filed for Chapter 11 protection again in August, causing shares of its parent company, Spirit Aviation Holdings (FLYY), to plummet to well under a dollar. The move highlights deep financial and operational issues that a quick turnaround last spring failed to resolve.
Why Spirit Is Struggling
The discount carrier faces multiple headwinds:
- High Costs: Operating expenses continue to exceed revenues. In the last reported quarter, costs were 118% of revenue, a recipe for persistent losses.
- Cash Burn: Spirit tapped its $275 million revolving credit line and still posted a net loss of $246 million in the June quarter.
- Competition: Rivals like Frontier and larger carriers offer low fares with better reputations, eroding Spirit’s core market share.
- Failed Merger: A proposed $3.8 billion merger with JetBlue was blocked, cutting off a critical lifeline and leaving Spirit exposed on its own.
Inside the Second Chapter 11 Filing
The company is using this fresh filing to execute what it calls a “comprehensive restructuring.” This includes renegotiating aircraft leases, scaling back underperforming routes, and realigning its fleet to focus on profitable hubs. Leadership has emphasized that flights will continue, loyalty points remain valid, and employees will be paid during the process.
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy and Prospects for Recovery
Bankruptcy court provides tools to reduce debt and restructure obligations, but recovery isn’t guaranteed. Success depends on execution, market competition, and consumer sentiment. Travelers have increasingly demanded comfort and reliability, challenging Spirit’s ultralow-cost model. Unless the airline can balance affordable fares with improved service, profitability may remain elusive.
Can Spirit Find Its Way Back?
The latest restructuring is a chance for Spirit to right-size operations, but with rivals circling and passengers skeptical, the path forward is narrow. If management can truly cut costs and reposition the brand, the carrier may survive. But given the scale of its debt and shifting consumer expectations, the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy story may be far from over.