Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.[Trade Alert] Picking up Celgene and Gilead calls
After taking some good gains on the volatility calls in recent days, Staples, and McDonald’s, many positions in the open portfolio took a hit on the 1,000-point move lower. I recommend holding all position, though. There’s still time remaining.
Today, I wanted to introduce some new opportunities, as the market begins to recoup some of its loss. If the Fed extends QE3 as it has hinted, the markets have an opportunity to rally back ahead of the elections.
For example, Celgene is finding support at its 200-day moving average with an oversold over-extension on MACD. One Wall Street firm just rated the stock a strong buy with a $104 price target, with arguments for higher EPS. Consider buying to open the January 2015 90 calls up to $5.00.
Gilead is showing strong signs of reversal off oversold MACD and MFI. I’d like to see a move back to $107.50 from $99 here. Consider buying to open the GILD January 2015 105 calls up to $5.00.
As always, do not risk the house. Risk just 1% to 5% on each trade. Never risk 100% on anything in this market. It’s too chaotic. Let’s jump back on the streak we enjoyed since December 2013. Enough of the market chaos…
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
Selling to Close VXX December 2014 33 Call for Gains
Fear has reached an epic level on Wall Street. Every one is running scared. Volatility is through the roof.
But as the fear reaches these insane highs, investors may begin to buy the blood in the streets, as we’ve learned from Baron Rothschild. Believing the Fed will not allow the blood shed to continue much longer before elections, volatility could decrease, and markets could rocket back north.
Consider selling to close the second half of the VXX December 2014 33 call today for solid gains. Once you close that, buy to open a small number of the VXX December 2014 36 put up to $6.00. Don’t risk the house. This new recommendation does carry some risk as the blood continues to flow in the streets.
Hold all other open positions.
Sell to Close Half of the VXX December 33 Calls
On Monday, the Dow fell 100 points at the open. The Dow would fall 270 by day’s end.
On Tuesday, the Fed brought out the bulls, sending the Dow back up 276 points.
Today, we’re down 320 points again on global concerns.
It’s chaos.
While I continue to hold all open positions in the portfolio, I am recommending that you consider selling to close half of the VXX December 33 calls issued this week. If you were able to jump in between $3 and $3.20, you’re up. The calls last traded at $3.80.
Again, sell to close just half.
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
SPLS December 13 Put for Gains & VXX December 2014 33 Calls
This has been quite a market.
One day we’re down 267. The next day we’re up 165. Then we’re all over the place. Then today we’re down more than 120 at open.
It’s madness, as we near the end of QE3.
Hold all positions, though with the exception of the Staples (SPLS) December 13 put. Consider selling to close the position for gains today. Forgotten Profits exited half of the position on October 3 for gains of up to 32%.
As for new ideas, I just issued a new trade on Harley Davidson (HOG). But if you’re interested, consider trading the incessant volatility in the market by buying to open the VXX December 2014 33 calls up to $3.60.
There are positions that are down in this mess of a market, but all remain on hold.
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
HOG January 2015 60 calls up to $3.50
After a beautiful string of wins since December 2013, we did run into some losers. We continue to hold everything, though, with plenty of time remaining. All positions in the portfolio are long-term holds, despite pullbacks in a very volatile market.
In a week’s time, we lost close to 400 points, and then bounced back 400 points, wobbled, and wobbled some more. It’s extremely volatile out there, as the Fed prepares to end QE3 at the end of the month.
We have found a new opportunity just this morning.
While Harley Davidson (HOG) has popped back a bit, we believe there’s opportunity for further upside, as RSI and MACD just begin to reverse off their lows. We’d like to see a test of at least $65 from current price of $59.90 before all is said and done.
If you have room in your portfolio, consider buying to open the HOG January 2015 60 calls up to $3.50.
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
Exit Cree, parts of McDonald’s and Staples
After a great deal of solid wins since December 2013, we have run into losers in one of the most troubling months for the markets in recent memory. We may have closed out nine solid double-digit wins since August 2014, but we have losers after the markets 350-point plunge off the highs.
Last Thursday, we fell 265 points on an over-extension we’ve discussed. The next day, the market shot up 165 points. By Monday and Tuesday, the market lost its mind again. On Thursday, we dipped before recovering.
And today, we’re up 120 points because folks believe unemployment is now below 6%. It’s not, though. The participation rate has now fallen by 95 million people. The real unemployment numbers are significantly higher.
One of the biggest losers we’ve seen lately has been our Cree (CREE) trade. We’re recommending that you sell to close the CREE December 42.50 call for the moment. We will look to jump back into this to make up for the loss because CREE is now insanely undervalued.
There is some good news though…
After hearing that some of you could not exit half of the MCD December 95 or January 95 calls the other day for gains, we have a second opportunity to do so today. If you did not exit half on that previous alert, do so today. And be sure to hold the second halves of these two trades.
We also have an opportunity to close out half of the Staples (SPLS) December 13 put. After picking this trade up at $1.10, we’re seeing a slight gain as it now trades at $1.40 x $1.50. Only exit half. We want to protect should the market decide to go bonkers and fly off the handle again.
Look for many more wins, and less loss shortly. Something has to give with this market already.
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
Exit half of McDonald’s Calls
On August 8, 2014, we issued a buy alert on the MCD December 95 and January 95 calls at $2 and $2.20, respectively. On Monday, following a report from JP Morgan analysts, the stock jumped $2 a share.
That move sent our December 95 calls to $3.15, handing us a gain of 58%.
The move also sent our January 95 calls to $3.45, handing us a gain of 57%.
We’re recommending that you sell to close just half of each position to secure the gains. Hold all other positions.
We will talk again soon.
Sell to Close DIA November 169 Put
While holding all other positions in this chaotic mess we call a stock market, sell to close the DIA November 169 put for gains right now.
The market looks like it wants to reverse higher after plummeting 170 points at the open. Once you close out that put, buy to open the DIA November 2014 170 calls up to $3.50. We expect for the market to move a bit higher before reversing again to its 200-day moving average at 16,556.
Hold all other positions. We have plenty of time remaining on them all.
Exit Half of DIA November 2014 169 Put
We continue to hold all open positions. We see no reason to exit any but this one.
Just yesterday, before the market ran up on absolutely nothing, we issued a buy alert on the DIA November 2014 169 put. Shortly after, we heard that some of you bought between $2.30 and $2.55.
If so, you’re now up between 27% and 41%.
If you’re happy with the gain, sell to close half of it today to secure it. Hold the second half, as we believe the market could pull back to its 200-day moving average yet again.
Buy to Open DIA November 2014 169 put up to $3.40
After a massive run of winners since December 2013, we do have some positions that are down. We see absolutely no reason to exit any of them at this point, though, holding with plenty of time remaining.
While we’re watching new trade opportunities, we have to be very careful here because of where the market sits, historically. After bouncing off overbought RSI, MFI and MACD, we’re beginning to see signs of failure at historic top.
If we break below the 50-day, we could spiral back to the 200-day moving average 600 points lower.
Hopefully that won’t happen.
Again, we hold all open positions in Forgotten Profits. We’ve had an amazing win streak since December 2013. And we have our losers in recent weeks.
If you’re interested in trading potential downside to the 200-day moving average, you should consider buying to open the DIA November 2014 169 put up to $3.40.