Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI
xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI over ChatGPT–iPhone integration
What happened
On August 25, 2025, Musk’s companies X and xAI filed suit in U.S. federal court in Texas, alleging that Apple’s iOS integration of ChatGPT via Apple Intelligence and Siri—combined with App Store ranking and curation—creates an anticompetitive advantage for OpenAI. The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI claims this “locks up” distribution on iPhones and depresses visibility for competing chatbots, including Grok.
The core allegations
- Preferential integration: ChatGPT receives first-class access on iPhone, while Grok and others do not.
- App Store dynamics: Curation and rankings allegedly favor ChatGPT, steering users away from alternatives.
- Market effects: The complaint argues the arrangement entrenches OpenAI’s position and harms competition and consumer choice.
Apple and OpenAI reject these claims; OpenAI characterizes the filing as part of an ongoing pattern of harassment, while Apple maintains its App Store policies are fair and pro-consumer.
Why this matters
The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI spotlights a pivotal question: when a platform bakes one AI assistant into the operating system, where’s the line between product design and anticompetitive conduct? The outcome could influence how default AI experiences work across mobile devices, cars, and wearables.
Trading angles
- Headline volatility: Expect outsized moves in names directly tied to the case (AAPL, private OpenAI exposure via partners) and sympathy swings in AI-adjacent equities.
- Platform risk premiums: If regulators or courts scrutinize defaults and distribution, platform owners could see a modest multiple overhang.
- Alt-assistant trade: Any sign of broader iOS access for competing assistants could catalyze rivals; track install-share data and App Store category ranks.
- Options setups: Elevated implied volatility around hearings or regulatory commentary can favor defined-risk spreads.
Context: the Musk–Altman rift
The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI also extends Musk’s long-running dispute with OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman. Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015, later departed, and has since launched xAI and previously filed separate claims over OpenAI’s structure and mission.
Bottom line
Whatever the legal outcome, the xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI accelerates a broader conversation about default AI access on dominant platforms. For traders, keep an eye on court milestones, regulatory commentary, and any shifts in Apple’s integration roadmap—each could be a tradable catalyst.
Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor Robot Brain
Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor Robot Brain: A Fresh Catalyst for NVDA
What launched—and why it matters
Nvidia announced general availability of the Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain developer kit at $3,499, positioning it as a physical-AI “supercomputer” for robotics and autonomous systems. The production-grade Jetson T5000 modules extend that platform into factory-ready robots and other edge devices.
- Architecture: Blackwell GPU + Arm CPU; up to 2,070 FP4 TFLOPS of AI compute
- Memory: 128 GB—enough headroom to run LLMs and multimodal VLMs on-device
- Perf vs. prior gen: up to 7.5× the AI compute and 3.5× the efficiency of AGX Orin
- Availability & pricing: Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain dev kit $3,499; Jetson T5000 modules available (volume pricing tiers apply)
Who’s building on it
Early adopters tied to the Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain ecosystem include Agility Robotics, Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Caterpillar, Figure, Hexagon, Medtronic, and Meta—spanning logistics, industrial, medical, and humanoid robotics. The common thread: running multiple generative models and real-time perception on the edge, not just in the cloud.
Where it fits in Nvidia’s growth story
Robotics has been a small revenue slice historically, but it’s expanding quickly. Nvidia grouped automotive and robotics into a combined unit that recently reported $567M in quarterly sales, up 72% YoY. The Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain gives that line item a clearer product-cycle narrative beyond data-center GPUs.
Trading angles for NVDA
- New-narrative momentum: The Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain anchors a “physical AI” theme that can drive incremental multiple expansion if attach-rates and developer traction accelerate.
- Sympathy moves: Monitor robotics names tied to Jetson—component suppliers, contract manufacturers, and high-profile adopters—for follow-through on partnership headlines.
- Event catalysts: Watch for design-win announcements, production ramp updates for Jetson T5000, and customer demos showcasing humanoids or autonomous platforms running the Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain.
- Options setup: Product-cycle headlines can lift implied volatility; consider structured spreads to express directional views around earnings or developer events.
Bottom line
The Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor robot brain isn’t just another embedded module—it’s Nvidia’s push to put generative AI directly into machines that perceive, reason, and act in real time. For traders, that means a new, trackable catalyst stream—pricing, shipments, design wins, and segment growth—that can add fuel to NVDA’s already volatile tape.
Tesla Stock Soars on Rate‑Cut Hopes
Tesla Stock Soars on Rate‑Cut Hopes (Aug 2025)
Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed rate‑cut odds higher and lifted risk assets—TSLA included. Meanwhile, Tesla’s new Cybertruck Luxe Package grabbed headlines but remains a sideshow to the rates story.
Overview
Markets ripped higher after Chair Powell emphasized rising risks to employment and left the door open to a September rate cut. TSLA outperformed as falling rate expectations improve auto affordability and support high‑duration growth names.
Rates vs. Pricing
- Auto credit sensitivity: Lower policy rates feed directly into loan and lease payments, expanding the buyer pool more than a single‑trim pricing tweak.
- Equity duration: High‑growth, cash‑flow‑weighted‑to‑the‑future names tend to pop when the discount rate falls. TSLA fits that profile.
Cybertruck ‘Luxe’ Details
Tesla raised the U.S. price of the Cybertruck Cyberbeast to $114,990 and bundled a new Luxe Package that includes FSD (Supervised), free Supercharging, and four‑year premium service (wheel/tire protection, windshield coverage, scheduled maintenance). Lower trims remained at $62,490 and $72,450.
What it signals: Tesla is testing embedded software+service value at the top end. If uptake improves, expect selective bundling on higher‑margin models.
Autonomy & Robotaxi
Tesla continues to lean into autonomy. FSD (Supervised) is available as an $8,000 purchase or $99/month subscription. The company also began a limited robotaxi rollout in Austin on June 22, a signal of where management wants the business to go—even if near‑term unit sales ebb and flow.
Sales Context
- First‑half 2025: Global Tesla sales down ~13% year over year.
- Q2 Cybertruck: 4,306 U.S. units, down ~51% y/y and behind Ford F‑150 Lightning (5,842). Cybertruck remains ~1%–2% of total volume; pricing tests won’t move the bottom line much.
Trading Playbook
1) Macro First
- Map 2Y/10Y UST and FF futures into TSLA’s opening range. Rate‑relief spikes often retrace—stalk the first pullback to anchored VWAP.
- Size down into PCE / payrolls; re‑risk when data confirm the dovish path.
2) Product Windows
- Watch Luxe adoption cues and any cross‑model bundling. Trade sympathy in S/X if bundles expand.
- Robotaxi headlines can be high‑beta; avoid chasing first prints, favor liquidity‑confirmed reversions.
3) Relative Value
- Pairs vs. NIO, BYD, LI, XPEV on China delivery days; vs. legacy autos on rate surprise days.
- Hedge currency if trading ADR peers; monitor tariff headlines.
Reminder: This is an educational market view, not investment advice. Use stops and position‑sizing discipline.
Nvidia Earnings and PCE Inflation Gauge
Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation gauge (Aug 25–29, 2025)
In the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, markets face a packed slate of economic data and high‑impact earnings—headlined by the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and Nvidia’s results.
Overview
The PCE inflation gauge—the Federal Reserve’s preferred price index—lands on Friday and sits at the center of this week’s narrative. Consensus looks for a 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline PCE for July, and core PCE (ex‑food & energy) running at 2.9% year‑over‑year with a 0.3% month‑over‑month gain. On Wednesday, Nvidia caps the megacap reporting cycle: analysts expect July‑quarter sales near $45.81B (+~53% YoY) and $1.00 in adjusted EPS as AI demand remains the primary engine.
Beyond AI, a broad retail slate (Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s, Burlington, Ulta, Gap and more) will test consumer resilience. Meanwhile, hard data roll in: durable goods (Tue), Conference Board consumer confidence (Tue), second estimate of Q2 GDP (Thu), and housing updates including new‑home sales (Mon) and pending home sales (Thu).
Earnings Calendar: Tech, AI, and the Consumer
Technology & Internet
- Mon (Aug 25): PDD Holdings, Semtech
- Tue (Aug 26): Okta, Box
- Wed (Aug 27): Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Trip.com, Agilent Technologies, HP Inc., NetApp, Pure Storage
- Thu (Aug 28): Marvell Technology, SentinelOne, Autodesk, Affirm Holdings
- Fri (Aug 29): Alibaba
Retail & Consumer
- Wed (Aug 27): Five Below, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker, Kohl’s
- Thu (Aug 28): Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Ulta Beauty, Gap
Note: Schedules can shift. Verify exact reporting times and conference calls with each issuer’s investor relations page.
Economic Calendar Highlights
| Day | Release | Consensus / Prior | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon (Aug 25) | New Residential Sales (July) | 650k SAAR vs 627k prior | Early read on housing activity and rate sensitivity. |
| Tue (Aug 26) | Durable Goods Orders (July) | −3.5% m/m (consensus); −9.4% prior | Captures core goods demand and capex momentum. |
| Tue (Aug 26) | Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 97.0 consensus; 97.2 prior | Tracks household sentiment ahead of retail earnings. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | GDP, 2nd Estimate (Q2) | 3.0% annualized (first estimate) | Refines the growth picture and supply–demand balance. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Aug 23) | N/A | High‑frequency gauge of labor‑market softness/tightness. |
| Thu (Aug 28) | Pending Home Sales (July) | +0.5% m/m consensus; −0.8% prior | Leads existing‑home closings by 1–2 months. |
| Fri (Aug 29) | PCE Price Index (July) | +0.2% m/m headline; core +2.9% y/y, +0.3% m/m | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; key for policy path. |
| Fri (Aug 29) | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug, final) | 58.6 prelim; 61.7 July | Cross‑check on confidence, inflation expectations. |
What It Means for Traders
1) PCE as a Volatility Trigger
The PCE inflation gauge is the decisive macro print. A hotter PCE risks higher‑for‑longer rate expectations and a growth‑to‑value rotation; a cooler print could extend risk appetite and compress yields. Watch rate‑sensitives and high‑duration tech around the release window.
2) Nvidia as AI Sentiment Barometer
Nvidia earnings will test AI‑spending momentum. Beyond headline beats/misses, focus on data‑center growth rates, supply commentary, inference/training demand mix, and guideposts for H2. Expect sympathy moves in semis, hyperscalers, and AI platform names.
3) Retail Tells on the Consumer
Results from big‑box and specialty retailers offer real‑time reads on discretionary spend, shrink, and mix (services vs. goods). Look for traffic, ticket, and margin commentary to align—or diverge—from confidence and PCE prints.
Trading Playbook
- Event windows: Reduce size or hedge into PCE/GDP; deploy volatility band or opening gap setups when ranges expand.
- Earnings tactics: Prefer post‑print first pullback entries aligned with guidance tone and order‑flow confirmation; avoid chasing initial spikes.
- Sector rotation: Map leaders/laggards across semis, software, and retail; use anchored VWAP and prior‑day value to frame risk.
- Housing sensitivity: Be alert to homebuilders and rate‑exposed financials around new/pending home data.
Day‑by‑Day Planner (Aug 25–29)
Monday, Aug 25
- Earnings: PDD, Semtech
- Data: New‑home sales (consensus 650k SAAR vs 627k)
Tuesday, Aug 26
- Earnings: Okta, Box, PVH, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, MongoDB
- Data: Durable goods (−3.5% m/m cons.; −9.4% prior); Conference Board consumer confidence (97.0 cons.)
Wednesday, Aug 27
- Earnings: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Trip.com, Agilent, HP Inc., NetApp, Pure Storage, Chewy, J.M. Smucker, Five Below, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Bill Holdings, Foot Locker, Kohl’s
Thursday, Aug 28
- Earnings: Best Buy, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores, Hormel Foods, Brown‑Forman, Marvell, Ulta, SentinelOne, Autodesk, Affirm, Gap
- Data: GDP 2nd estimate (Q2), Initial jobless claims (w/e Aug 23), Pending home sales (cons. +0.5% m/m)
Friday, Aug 29
- Earnings: Alibaba
- Data: PCE price index (July): +0.2% m/m headline; core +2.9% y/y (+0.3% m/m). Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (final): 58.6 prelim.
Japanese Stocks Soar Despite Tariffs
Japanese Stocks Soar Despite Tariffs and Turmoil (Aug 2025)
EWJ and key indices in Tokyo keep climbing even as the U.S. locks in 15% reciprocal tariffs and Japan’s ruling coalition loses its upper‑house majority. Here’s what’s driving the rally—and how to trade it.
Key Takeaways
- Tariff clarity beats uncertainty: A 15% cap on U.S. tariffs for Japanese autos and many goods reduced tail‑risk and fueled a relief rally.
- Politics mattered—then faded: The coalition’s upper‑house loss dented confidence, but expectations that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba survives near‑term eased market angst.
- Banks benefit from a steeper curve: With the BoJ policy rate at 0.5% and long yields higher, net interest margins for major and regional banks have widened.
- Corporate reform is real: Record buybacks and cleaner balance sheets continue to re‑rate Japan Inc., offsetting external headwinds.
What Changed
Market Drivers
1) Autos: Relative Advantage
With global steel and aluminum tariffs elevated, a known 15% rate on Japanese autos reduced worst‑case scenarios. Supply chains remain flexible, and share gains in the U.S. are plausible if domestic producers face higher input costs and bottlenecks. Watch shipment guidance and North American inventory data through CQ4.
2) Banks: Steeper Curve, Fatter Margins
Japan’s upward‑tilted yield curve supports interest spreads for the megabanks and regionals. Screens to watch: Mitsubishi UFJ and Resona on earnings sensitivity to loan growth and deposit betas.
3) Currency: A Yen That Can Turn
The dollar‑yen rate (~147) is vulnerable to a policy convergence trade if the Fed eases while the BoJ nudges higher. A stronger yen trims exporters’ EPS—yet boosts real incomes and domestic demand.
4) Reform & Buybacks
Tokyo’s corporate‑governance push keeps unlocking cash hoards. Rising dividends and repurchases provide a durable bid under valuations and cushion against tariff shocks.
Sector Lens: From Industrials to the Home Front
- Autos & Parts: Look for share shifts in U.S. market segments where Japanese lineups are deep; track margin guidance given metal‑input tariffs.
- Banks & Insurers: Net‑interest margin expansion is the core story; watch credit costs and hedging of foreign bond portfolios.
- Healthcare: Under‑owned in an aging society; ideas on our radar include surgical consumables and diagnostic networks with steady pricing power.
- Domestic Services & Retail: A firmer yen would lift purchasing power; focus on operators with cost discipline and improving same‑store sales.
Yen & Rates: Path Dependence
Base case: BoJ stays gradual, with a live risk of another hike into Q4 if core inflation remains sticky. Meanwhile, the Fed’s bias to ease into slowing growth could narrow differentials and pull USD/JPY toward the low‑130s over a multi‑quarter horizon. Use currency scenarios when underwriting export EPS versus domestic cyclicals.
Governance Tailwind: The Structural Bid
Japan’s equity culture is changing—fewer cross‑shareholdings, more ROE discipline, and record buybacks. This structural bid helps explain why dips tied to tariffs or politics have been bought rather than sold in 2024–2025.
Trading Playbook (for EWJ & Single‑Names)
Event‑Driven Tactics
- Tariff headlines: Use Volatility Band and Opening Gap setups on EWJ and liquid ADRs; fade first spike into anchored VWAP if liquidity confirms.
- BoJ days: Stand by for outsized USD/JPY moves; look for confluence with prior‑day value areas on banks and exporters.
Rotation Maps
- Stronger yen path: Tilt to domestics (financials, healthcare, services); underweight pure exporters.
- Weaker yen path: Favor autos/capital goods; monitor input‑cost guidance and hedges.
Risk Management
- Size down around BoJ/Jackson Hole‑style macro windows; re‑enter on the first clean pullback with order‑flow confirmation.
- Respect currency: hedge USD/JPY exposure on exporters; track basis between local shares and ADRs/ETFs.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
Fast vs. Reflective Decisions in Trading
The MTRI Impulsivity Dimension: Fast vs. Reflective Decisions in Trading
Our background in behavioral finance has had Traderinsight.com focused on the psychological development of traders for three decades. It’s only a recent evolution that has media outlets like Investopedia publishing articles on the topic (click here to read a pretty good one). Psychology has been our focus in fostering trader success since 1997 – so let’s move on to the next dimension in the Manz Trader Readiness Inventory.
In our last article, we explored Neuroticism in the Manz Trader Readiness Inventory (MTRI). Today, we turn to the MTRI Impulsivity Dimension—how quickly a trader acts on perceived opportunity, how thoroughly they weigh risk, and how that decision speed should shape their playbook. We’ll revisit three traders facing the same fast breakout in TSLA: Mike (high impulsivity), John (medium), and Jeremy (low).
What Impulsivity Measures (and What It Doesn’t)
- Measures: Latency from signal to action; tolerance for ambiguity; propensity to “click first, evaluate later.”
- Doesn’t measure: Intelligence, skill, or courage. Impulsivity is a tempo preference, not a value judgment.
- Trading impact: High impulsivity can capture early edge in breakouts and news; low impulsivity can avoid false moves but risks missing the window.
High Impulsivity
Mike: The Fast Trigger
- In the moment: Urgency and excitement—“It’s going, I’m in.”
- Behavior: Quick entries, occasional oversizing, adds without a plan. May flip fast on hesitation.
- After: Minimal review; wins reinforce speed, losses get “buried under the next trade.”
Safeguards: Hard max daily trades; fixed
R risk; pre-commit add/exit rules; checklist gate before any add.Medium Impulsivity
John: The Balanced Operator
- In the moment: Acts quickly but confirms volume, VWAP, and stop distance.
- Behavior: Enters a beat later than Mike; maintains structure; adapts calmly to change.
- After: Reviews timing vs. slippage; seeks consistency over perfection.
Low Impulsivity
Jeremy: The Careful Planner
- In the moment: Waits for confirmation; checks multiple timeframes for context.
- Behavior: Enters late; avoids many traps; sometimes watches the winner run without him.
- After: Thorough journaling; system-level refinements.
Playbook by Profile (Same TSLA Breakout, Different Execution)
Mike (High): Momentum Capture with Guardrails
- Trigger: 1–3m Opening Range High (ORH) break with volume surge and price above aVWAP.
- Entry: First break or first micro pullback (
PB-1) after the break; no chasing beyond 0.3× ATR(1m). - Risk: Fixed
0.5R–0.75RStop below aVWAP or break candle low (whichever is tighter). - Management: Scale 1 at
+1R, trail to+2Rusing a 1m higher-low structure; strict no-add unless the plan says PB-2 only. - Kill-switch: Two consecutive impulse losses → step aside until aVWAP regime reasserts.
John (Medium): Structured Breakout with Confirmation
- Trigger: ORH break and hold above aVWAP for 2–3 bars; cumulative delta rising.
- Entry: First pullback to VWAP/aVWAP zone; place a stop just below pullback low.
- Risk:
0.5Rper idea; allow one re-entry only if the structure is intact. - Targets: Half/whole-number magnets; scale at
+1R, runner to next supply shelf. - Discipline: No rule changes intraday; batch improvements in weekly review.
Jeremy (Low): Confirmation First, Then Follow-Through
- Trigger: Break, retest, and successful reclaim of ORH with volume sustainability.
- Entry: Limit at the retest zone; if missed, place a stop-limit a few cents above the reclaim candle.
- Risk:
0.25R–0.4R; smaller size, wider stop acceptable given later entry. - Targets: Prior day’s high/intraday supply; trail using 3–5m higher-low structure.
- Improvement: Pre-program conditional orders; use alerts at ORH/ORL to compress reaction time.
Micro-Setup Example: TSLA 1-Minute Breakout
- Context: Pre-market base; regular session opens above aVWAP; first 5m sets a tight OR.
- Signal: ORH breaks on a volume burst > 150% of 10-bar average; delta prints higher highs.
- Mike: Hits PB-1 with fixed 0.6R, scales quickly.
- John: Waits for hold above aVWAP; buys first pullback into the zone.
- Jeremy: Requires retest-and-reclaim; uses stop-limit to enter on resumption.
Metrics to Track (so your style pays you)
- Latency: Seconds from signal to order; trend your average weekly.
- Chase distance: Entry vs. signal price; cap at a percentage of 1m ATR.
- Re-entry discipline: How often do re-entries pay? Restrict if sub-40% win rate.
- R-multiples: Average
Rper setup by profile; adjust scaling rules to maximize medianR.
Safeguards Ladder
- Define R and max daily trades.
- Use anchored VWAP regimes to gate trend vs. revert tactics.
- Pre-write add/exit logic. No discretionary adds.
- Two-strike rule per setup/side before standing down.
- Weekly batch review—no mid-session rule edits.
Key Takeaway
The MTRI Impulsivity Dimension isn’t about good or bad—it’s about aligning execution tempo with market tempo.
Fast decision-makers extract edge in momentum bursts when guardrails are tight; reflective traders monetize confirmation and
structure. Your edge compounds when your rules express your tempo.