Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Are You a Trader or a Gambler?
Are You Trading or Gambling?
In the high-stakes world of the stock market, it can be hard to tell the difference between disciplined trading and outright gambling—especially in an age where commission-free apps, social media hype, and instant gratification blur the lines.
But make no mistake: trading and gambling are not the same thing—unless you make them the same. The difference isn’t in the tools or the market. It’s in the mindset, the method, and the consistency behind every decision you make.
So, ask yourself: Are you trading… or gambling?
1. Trading Is a Business. Gambling Is a Thrill.
Professional traders approach the market the way a CEO runs a company—methodically, strategically, and with measurable goals. Every decision is based on a repeatable process, backed by data and tested over time.
Gamblers, on the other hand, show up for the rush. There’s no edge. No playbook. Just instinct, impulse, and a hope for luck.
If you find yourself chasing trades, doubling down on losses, or switching strategies every week… you might be gambling.
2. Trading Uses Risk Management—gambling Risks It All.
Ask any successful trader, and they’ll tell you: capital preservation is everything. That means using stop losses, sizing positions correctly, and knowing when to walk away.
Gamblers bet big to win big. There’s rarely an exit plan—only hope that the next move pays off. This “all or nothing” mentality might win sometimes, but over the long haul, it’s a one-way ticket to a blown account.
If you’re risking more than you can afford to lose—or letting one bad trade wipe out weeks of progress—you’re not trading. You’re spinning the roulette wheel.
3. Trading Follows a Plan. Gambling Follows a Hunch.
Traders build detailed plans before the bell rings. They know which stocks they’re watching, the levels they care about, their entries, exits, and risk parameters.
Gamblers wake up and “see what’s moving.” They jump into trades without clear setups or reasons, and they stay in too long because they “feel like it’s going to pop.”
If you’re trading based on gut feeling instead of defined setups and rules, you’re not executing a strategy—you’re just guessing.
4. Trading Tracks Performance. Gambling Ignores the Math.
Successful traders journal everything—wins, losses, entry and exit logic, emotional state, and what they’ve learned. They constantly refine their approach and make decisions based on data.
Gamblers only remember the big wins (and conveniently forget the losses). They resist accountability because it forces them to confront a hard truth: they don’t have an edge.
If you’re not tracking your trades or learning from your mistakes, how will you ever improve?
5. Trading Controls Emotion. Gambling Is Driven By It.
Markets are emotional by nature. Fear, greed, revenge—every trader feels them. But the pros have tools and habits to manage those feelings.
Gamblers are their emotions. They FOMO into trades, panic-sell on pullbacks, and revenge-trade after losses. They confuse volatility with opportunity and excitement with skill.
If your trades are emotional reactions instead of calm, calculated decisions, it’s time to step back.
So, Which One Are You?
If you’ve recognized yourself in some of the gambler behaviors above, don’t beat yourself up. Every trader—yes, every single one—has walked that path at some point.
But here’s the good news: you can change it.
With the right education, a rules-based strategy, and a focus on process over outcome, you can shift from gambling to trading. From hope… to skill. From randomness… to results.
The markets don’t care what you want to happen. However, they will reward consistency, discipline, and a competitive edge. Your job is to build that edge—and stick to it.
Why Markets Are Shrugging Off Trump’s Latest Tariff Threats
Why Investors Aren’t Panicking Over Trump’s Tariff Threats—Yet
In a week filled with bold rhetoric and escalating threats from the Trump administration, investors might have expected the stock market to recoil. After all, reports on Friday revealed the White House is considering new tariffs of 15% to 20% on European Union goods—a substantial increase from prior expectations. Financial Times
However, instead of panic, the S&P 500 briefly dipped before rebounding to end the day virtually flat. This muted reaction is becoming a pattern.
Despite headline after headline warning of rising trade tensions, Wall Street has largely stayed the course. Even the so-called “liberation day” tariffs announced back in April—an event that temporarily rattled markets—ultimately proved to be a speed bump rather than a derailment.
So why are investors so calm now?
1. Tariffs Are Seen as a Negotiation Tactic
One prevailing theory is that Trump’s tariff threats are more about leverage than long-term policy. Many professional investors now subscribe to what’s been dubbed the “TACO trade”—Trump Always Chickens Out.
This idea, coined by a columnist at the Financial Times, suggests that Trump’s tough talk is meant to speed up negotiations, and if markets begin to wobble, he’s likely to pull back, just as he did in April when a 90-day tariff delay was announced shortly after a market selloff.
“Frustrated with the slow pace of talks, it seems the president is trying to incentivize trade partners to move faster,” said Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research. According to his conversations with institutional investors, the expectation remains that tariffs will be rolled back once deals are finalized.
2. Legal Hurdles May Neutralize Tariffs Anyway
Another reason for investor calm: the courts. Back in May, federal judges ruled that Trump lacked the authority to enforce his April tariff package. While an injunction allowed them to remain temporarily, many believe future tariffs will face similar legal challenges.
This creates a “wait and see” buffer that allows markets to price in the possibility rather than certainty, thereby mitigating immediate volatility.
3. Strong Earnings Are Taking the Spotlight
The corporate earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, and investors are focusing on fundamentals rather than policy noise. Reports from major banks last week, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America, highlighted resilient consumer credit and economic strength, with low default rates and stable loan portfolios.
Big tech and consumer names are also posting better-than-expected results, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite stay near all-time highs.
4. Economic Data Continues to Impress
Despite inflationary pressure and trade uncertainty, key economic indicators remain strong. The latest employment and retail sales data point to an economy that continues to expand. Add to that the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which finalized key budget and tax measures, and it’s clear why investors feel more grounded than they did in the spring.
“Back in April, we didn’t know how the budget bill was going to come out… Now we know,” said Erik Aarts, senior fixed-income strategist at Touchstone Investments. “Markets have been able to lean into that a little bit.”
The Bottom Line
Markets are far from complacent, but every new tariff headline no longer rattles them. Investors are placing their faith in negotiating bluster, legal challenges, and strong economic fundamentals to weather the storm.
Whether that optimism holds will depend on how aggressively the administration acts—and how long the economy can continue to shrug off policy risk.
For now, the message from Wall Street is clear: It’s going to take more than tariff talk to derail this rally.
Nvidia Nears Record Highs as Trump AI Push and Google Spending Fuel Optimism
Nvidia Stock Surges as AI Momentum Builds from Both Silicon Valley and Washington
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) were on the rise again Thursday morning, buoyed by a surge in optimism around artificial intelligence. The stock climbed 1.1% in premarket trading to $172.64, following a 2.3% gain on Wednesday. With this move, Nvidia is approaching its all-time high closing price of $173, hit just last week.
A combination of public and private sector support for AI development fuels the gains. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Google’s parent company, signaled its commitment to AI infrastructure by increasing its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion—up from $52.5 billion in 2024. A substantial portion of that spend is expected to go toward building and expanding data centers powered by Nvidia’s high-performance AI chips.
Nvidia’s momentum is also being driven by a policy tailwind from Washington. On Wednesday, the Trump administration unveiled a national “action plan” to bolster American dominance in artificial intelligence. Key elements of the initiative include making it easier for tech firms to build domestic data centers—an area where Nvidia’s hardware is a cornerstone.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the initiative during a Fox News interview Wednesday, saying:
“What the president is announcing today is going to accelerate AI innovation in America. He’s going to enable [the] American tech stack to be proliferated around the world at an incredible rate.”
Huang, who was seated in the front row of the White House’s AI Summit, appeared to show strong alignment with the administration’s goals for AI expansion, emphasizing the role of American chipmakers in leading the next wave of global tech infrastructure.
Other semiconductor stocks also saw a lift. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) gained 1.2% in premarket trading, while Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) rose 2.5%.
A Perfect Storm for Nvidia
With both increased corporate investment and supportive government policy aligning, Nvidia appears to be sitting in a sweet spot. The company has already been the poster child of the AI-driven tech rally over the past year, and these latest developments could provide further upside.
As the AI arms race heats up, Nvidia’s dominant position in GPU-based computing, combined with a surge in demand for AI infrastructure, places it at the center of one of the most powerful trends in global technology.
Big Banks Signal Strength: What Q2 Earnings Reveal About the U.S. Economy
Big Banks Say the Economy Is Healthier Than It Feels
Despite a backdrop of political uncertainty, trade tensions, and rising consumer prices, America’s largest banks delivered a surprisingly optimistic message last week: The economy is stronger than headlines suggest.
Quarterly earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and other major banks showed resilience in both consumer and commercial credit markets, as well as solid performance in core banking operations. For investors and consumers alike, the takeaway was clear: Don’t underestimate the American economy.
Consumers Are Keeping Up—Thanks to a Strong Labor Market
All four major consumer banks—JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—reported low levels of delinquency and charge-offs. In simple terms, people are paying their bills on time, and banks aren’t having to write off large amounts of bad debt.
“While there are nuances around the edges, consumer credit is primarily about the labor market,” said JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum during the bank’s earnings call. “In a world with a 4.1% unemployment rate, it’s just going to be hard—especially in our portfolio—to see a lot of weakness.”
This is a key point. Despite consumer sentiment surveys showing anxiety over inflation and policy uncertainty, people with jobs continue to service their debt responsibly, reinforcing the idea that confidence may be low, but fundamentals are strong.
Commercial Credit Risks Are Contained—for Now
There were a few blips in the commercial lending space. Wells Fargo noted a slight uptick in net charge-offs for business clients, and Citigroup flagged a rise in nonaccrual corporate loans. But in both cases, executives were quick to frame the losses as isolated rather than systemic.
“These were borrower-specific, with little signs of systematic weakness across the portfolio,” said Wells Fargo CFO Michael Santomassimo. At Citigroup, CFO Mark Mason chalked it up to an “idiosyncratic downgrade,” not a broader deterioration.
Translation: yes, there are always trouble spots—but there’s no wave of defaults or credit contagion brewing.
Political Uncertainty and Inflation Still Cloud the Outlook
Despite the upbeat tone from Wall Street, Main Street isn’t feeling quite so secure. Confusion surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs, continues to inject volatility into markets and impact consumer prices. Recent inflation data already reflect rising costs tied to import duties, especially on everyday items.
This disconnect between economic performance and consumer perception is worth watching. While banks are operating from a position of strength, uncertainty in fiscal and trade policy could influence corporate behavior, investment decisions, and hiring down the line.
What It Means for Investors
The S&P 500 Bank Index has rebounded sharply in recent months, and strong earnings across the board suggest the rally may have legs. Still, much of the positive narrative hinges on the continuation of low unemployment and a resilient consumer.
For now, bank executives are betting on stability, even in the face of inflation, geopolitical risk, and shifting monetary policy. Whether that optimism proves well-placed will depend on how the macroeconomic story unfolds in the second half of the year.
Bottom Line:
The nation’s largest banks just delivered a collective vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. While consumers feel the pinch of rising prices and policy ambiguity, the underlying data—especially around employment and credit—tell a different story. And for now, at least, the story is one of quiet strength.