Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.August 8, 2025
Trump Chip Tariffs 2025
Trump Chip Tariffs 2025: Apple and Nvidia Secure Key Exemptions
Exemptions for U.S.-Based Investment
At a White House event showcasing Apple’s new $100 billion U.S. investment, Trump declared: “If you’re building, there will be no charge.” The announcement confirms a de facto policy many in the industry already assumed—tariff exemptions in exchange for American capital commitments.
Apple CEO Tim Cook praised the administration’s stance, noting the company plans to manufacture 19 billion chips across 24 factories in 12 states. Apple’s updated investment includes a major initiative with Corning to produce all iPhone and Apple Watch glass in Kentucky.
Apple’s Strategy and Global Trade Risks
Apple’s pledge adds to a broader $500 billion commitment announced earlier this year. However, analysts argue that much of this figure repackages existing U.S. operations. Critics caution that while splashy, such announcements don’t always create new jobs or materially re-shore manufacturing.
Apple has strategically shifted some iPhone production to India—a country Trump just hit with a 50% tariff due to oil imports from Russia. The shift from China was meant to diversify risk, but now faces fresh trade challenges of its own.
Nvidia and the Art of Influence
Also at the White House was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose company has promised $500 billion in U.S. investment. Nvidia has emerged as one of Trump’s favorite companies, particularly after joining the president on a recent trip to the Middle East and securing a rollback of export restrictions on its AI chips for China.
Trump’s praise was effusive, calling Apple’s Cook “one of the great and most esteemed business leaders, geniuses and innovators anywhere in the world.” Just months ago, Trump had criticized Apple for offshoring iPhone production, but Wednesday’s event marked a clear shift.
Tariffs, Tech, and the “Pay-to-Play” Dynamic
Industry analysts suggest we’re entering a “pay-to-play” environment in which companies can earn favorable treatment through U.S. investment pledges. According to Craig Moffett of Moffett Nathanson, “Companies can buy their way into tariff exemptions, even if those investments fall far short of actually re-shoring manufacturing.”
That sentiment was echoed by Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the Chamber of Progress, who noted, “Every company has learned a lot about how to navigate their relationship with Trump. Nvidia and Apple are among the companies that have done it the best.”
Stock Market Reaction
Apple shares rose 5.1% during regular trading on the news, and added another 3.5% after hours. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor and other chip companies gained over 3%, as clarity on exemptions eased investor concerns about broad supply chain disruption.
Conclusion
The Trump chip tariffs 2025 announcement formalizes what many industry leaders suspected: investment in American manufacturing is now a prerequisite for market stability. As the White House doubles down on its “Made in America” agenda, companies like Apple and Nvidia are positioning themselves to thrive under the new rules—whether or not their actual manufacturing footprints significantly change.
Higher Tariffs Are Here to Stay: Here is the Immediate Impact for Traders
Higher Tariffs Are Here to Stay: What Traders Need to Know Now
As of August 7, tariffs on dozens of countries are officially in effect, signaling a major shift in U.S. trade policy. The Trump administration’s strategy is clear: higher tariffs are here to stay, and their impact on the markets is just starting to unfold.
With rates ranging from 10% to 41% and 100% tariffs hitting semiconductors, traders now have a dynamic backdrop for identifying high-probability opportunities across sectors. Here’s what to watch in the days and weeks ahead.
1. Semiconductors: Watch for Rotation Into U.S. Producers
The surprise 100% tariff on all semiconductor imports has put a spotlight on domestic producers. Companies like Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) stand to gain, while firms reliant on imported chips or finished electronics could feel the squeeze.
Monitor volatility in semis. Look for long opportunities in U.S. fabs and hedged short setups in overseas-reliant manufacturers. Follow supply chain headlines for momentum triggers.
2. Industrials and Materials: Spread Pressure Mounting
With 50% tariffs still in place on steel and aluminum, cost pressure is building. This could support upstream players like Nucor (NUE) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) while hurting downstream sectors like automotive and construction.
Watch for divergence setups between raw material suppliers and industrial manufacturers. Use sector ETFs and options for directional trades.
3. Consumer Discretionary: Inflation Is Coming
As companies burn through pre-tariff inventories, price hikes are on the horizon. Economists project consumer-facing inflation to kick in by Thanksgiving, impacting retailers and discretionary spending.
Use Anchored VWAP and Volume-by-Price to identify breakdown zones in retailers like Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD). Consider long setups in consumer staples.
4. Pharma: Policy Risk and Tariff Leverage
The administration is eyeing sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals as leverage to push for “most-favored-nation” drug pricing. This adds headline risk to an already undervalued sector.
Watch for oversold setups in big pharma (e.g., Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK)). Stay nimble around generic drugmakers and industry news.
5. Legal Watch: IEEPA Challenges May Shift the Game
Many of the current tariffs rest on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If courts limit the White House’s authority under IEEPA, we could see a shift in how tariffs are applied—or a pivot to new legal levers.
Monitor macro-sensitive ETFs like DXY, UUP, and EEM. Watch for volatility around court decisions or executive action.
Final Word
The media may be slow to connect the dots, but traders know how fast market dynamics shift. Higher tariffs are here to stay, and while the effects may not tip the U.S. into recession, they will reshape supply chains, earnings, and investor psychology.
Stay nimble. Watch the headlines. Trade what you see—because volatility is back on the menu.
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Shadow Fleet Sanctions Could Shake Energy Markets
Trump’s Ultimatum to Putin: Shadow Fleet Sanctions Could Shake Energy Markets
The Shadow Fleet: A Key Pillar of Russian Oil Exports
Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” is a loosely organized network of oil tankers that operates outside the scrutiny of Western governments and financial institutions. These vessels—often operating under flags of convenience, with opaque ownership structures—allow Moscow to export crude oil above the Western-imposed $60 per barrel price cap, primarily to China, India, and other nations willing to look past sanctions.
These exports are a financial lifeline for the Kremlin. According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the proceeds from shadow fleet operations help finance Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, making the fleet a logical—and vulnerable—target for economic pressure.
Trump’s Strategic Shift
Since returning to office, Trump has held back on expanding sanctions in favor of pursuing a negotiated peace in Ukraine. But sources close to the White House say frustration has mounted over Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire. Trump reportedly delivered a direct ultimatum and is preparing to take action if no progress is made by Friday.
The proposed sanctions would focus on blacklisting specific vessels in the shadow fleet, a tactic seen as both symbolically powerful and practically disruptive. Enforcement is challenging, given the hidden ownership of many tankers, but targeting the vessels themselves has been effective in the past, especially when coordinated with EU and UK actions.
Last month, the EU sanctioned over 100 additional vessels, bringing the total to 415 ships now restricted. U.S. participation would amplify that effort significantly.
Diplomatic Dance: Trump, Zelenskyy, and Witkoff’s Moscow Visit
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is currently in Moscow for meetings that may be pivotal in shaping the administration’s next move. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, fresh from his own meeting with Trump, emphasized the economic toll sanctions are taking on Moscow and suggested that new measures could further strain Russia’s war effort.
“If Witkoff comes back empty-handed,” a source close to Trump said, “the president is going to go ballistic.”
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly added: “The president has been clear that there will be biting sanctions if Putin does not agree to end the war.”
Market Implications: Oil Prices, Energy Stocks, and Risk-On/Off Sentiment
If Trump follows through, the market consequences could be immediate:
1. Oil Prices May Spike
Tighter sanctions on the shadow fleet would likely disrupt Russian crude flows, particularly to Asia. Any reduction in supply—especially amid existing OPEC+ production cuts—could push Brent crude back above $90 per barrel. Traders should watch for bullish movement in energy stocks, oil ETFs (XLE, USO), and commodity-linked currencies.
2. Increased Volatility in Risk Assets
The potential for escalation between Washington and Moscow introduces fresh uncertainty. A hawkish Trump posture, especially if paired with retaliatory measures from Russia (e.g., cyberattacks, further energy weaponization), could shift sentiment toward risk-off assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury bonds.
3. China-India Oil Trade Disruption
With Russia’s preferred buyers in the crosshairs of these enforcement efforts, diplomatic tensions with Beijing and New Delhi may rise. Market participants should monitor Chinese energy companies and Indian refiners, as well as shifts in tanker routes and shipping insurance premiums.
4. Defense and Cybersecurity Sectors in Focus
Escalating geopolitical tension could renew investor interest in defense contractors (e.g., LMT, RTX) and cybersecurity firms (e.g., PANW, CRWD), both of which typically outperform during periods of heightened global risk.
Conclusion: A Crucial Week for Traders and Policymakers Alike
The coming days will be pivotal. If Trump imposes sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, the global oil market may undergo a structural shock that reignites inflationary concerns and tests already fragile supply chains.
Traders should stay nimble and closely monitor updates from the White House, Moscow, and key shipping and energy data sources. A rapid repricing of risk is possible—and those who anticipate the ripple effects will have the upper hand.
TraderInsight Pro Tip:
Watch the Brent/WTI spread, shipping rates in the Black Sea and Indian Ocean, and Russian crude discount benchmarks. They may offer early signals of disruption or market repricing in the event sanctions are enacted.
AMD Revenue Beats, AI Demand Surges
AMD Earnings Report Q2 2025: Revenue Beats, AI Demand Surges
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) delivered a mixed second-quarter earnings report Tuesday, posting better-than-expected revenue alongside in-line earnings—but the stock fell as investors digested the results after a strong three-month rally.
Strong Q2 Revenue and Data Center Growth
The AMD earnings report Q2 2025 revealed adjusted earnings per share of 48 cents, matching Wall Street’s consensus, according to FactSet. Revenue hit $7.7 billion, topping analyst expectations of $7.42 billion.
Notably, the company’s data center segment revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $3.2 billion, driven by demand for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence products.
Guidance and AI Momentum
For the current quarter, AMD guided revenue to a midpoint of $8.7 billion, surpassing the Street’s forecast of $8.32 billion. CEO Lisa Su struck an optimistic tone, stating, “We are seeing robust demand across our computing and AI product portfolio and are well positioned to deliver significant growth in the second half of the year.”
Investor excitement around AI continues to play a key role in AMD’s narrative. In June, the company unveiled the Instinct MI350 series, including the MI350X and MI355X chips, aimed at challenging Nvidia’s dominance in AI infrastructure.
Stock Reaction and Market Expectations
Despite the beat on revenue and positive guidance, AMD stock dropped 5.8% to $164.20 in premarket trading Wednesday, following the company’s earnings call. Investors may have been looking for a stronger upside surprise, especially after a 73% run-up over the past three months.
Year-to-date, shares are still up 44%, reflecting enthusiasm for AI-linked growth as tech giants boost capital expenditures.
Looking Ahead: MI400 and Full-Stack Solutions
CEO Lisa Su emphasized long-term growth potential, noting that customer interest in the upcoming MI400 series, expected in 2026, is “very strong.”
In March, AMD acquired ZT Systems, enhancing its ability to deliver rack-scale AI server solutions—a space currently led by Nvidia. This strategic move positions AMD to compete across the full stack, from silicon to systems to software.
“We are in the early stages of an industry-wide AI transformation,” Su said. “It will drive a step-function increase in compute demand across all of our markets.”
Conclusion
The AMD earnings report Q2 2025 offered a solid performance on the top line, bolstered by data center strength and a promising AI roadmap. While shares dipped post-call, the long-term growth story remains intact as AMD doubles down on AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.
Copper Tariff Impact 2025: Economic Implications Ahead
Trump Tariffs Trigger Historic Crash in U.S. Copper Market
In a stunning reversal that jolted metals markets, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products—but exempted raw copper materials, sparking a 20% plunge in U.S. copper futures on Wednesday. If losses hold, it would mark the biggest single-day drop in copper prices since records began in 1968, eclipsing even the 1987 Black Monday crash.
🔧 What Happened?
Earlier this month, Trump said he intended to slap a 50% import tax on copper—sending U.S. copper prices soaring well above global benchmarks. Businesses scrambled to import copper ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline, and domestic warehouses in Baltimore, New Orleans, and Detroit filled up with supplies.
But on Wednesday, just days before the tariff was to take effect, the White House issued a sharp pivot: the 50% duty would apply only to processed copper products—including wire, tubing, sheeting, and parts containing copper—not to raw copper materials like cathodes, concentrate, or scrap.
This carve-out stunned the market, crashing copper futures to pre-announcement levels—around $4.50 per pound, in line with global prices set by the London Metal Exchange.
📉 The Fallout
The policy shift dealt a blow to U.S. copper producers and companies preparing for a raw materials tariff:
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Freeport-McMoRan, the largest U.S. copper miner, fell 9.5%.
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Ivanhoe Electric, which is planning a major new Arizona mine, plunged 17%.
Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers of plumbing, electronics, and wiring stand to benefit, as the tariff shields them from foreign competition in finished products without increasing input costs.
The tariff also applies only to the copper content of mixed goods—such as electrical components or pipe fittings—not their full value. Automobiles are exempt from the copper tariff entirely.
⚙️ Policy Confusion and Market Whiplash
This move is the latest example of the volatility surrounding Trump’s trade agenda. While the original announcement fueled speculation that new smelting and mining capacity might be encouraged, the reality undercuts that optimism.
Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett warned investors weeks ago that the president’s off-the-cuff policy signals could lead to disappointment:
“Trump has declared massive tariffs before and then not implemented them,” Brackett wrote in a July 9 note.
He also noted:
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Over half of U.S. copper is imported, much of it from Chile, which had been lobbying for an exemption.
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The U.S. only has two operating copper smelters.
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Building a new smelter would take years and cost over $5 billion—a nonstarter given the limited time left in Trump’s current term and the historically low-margin nature of smelting.
“The tariff incents no proper economic action but rather simply adds cost to U.S. manufacturers,” Brackett concluded.
🧭 What Comes Next?
With U.S. copper prices now crashing back to earth, the short-term winners appear to be manufacturers, not miners or infrastructure investors. The reversal also highlights how quickly policy ambiguity can roil commodity markets.
While the administration may have sought to protect American manufacturing, the decision has undercut confidence in long-term resource development—and introduced fresh uncertainty for investors trying to interpret what’s next in the evolving trade strategy.
Apple Commits $100 Billion More to U.S.
Apple Commits $100 Billion More to U.S. Investment Amid Trade Shifts
Strategic Shift Toward U.S. Manufacturing
At the heart of the Apple U.S. investment 2025 plan is a renewed emphasis on domestic manufacturing. Apple announced that it will collaborate with U.S.-based suppliers, including Corning Inc., to build out its American supply chain through the new American Manufacturing Program.
One highlight: every iPhone and Apple Watch sold globally will soon feature glass made in Corning’s Harrodsburg, Kentucky facility. Corning’s increased involvement led to a 4.4% spike in its stock during after-hours trading following the news.
20,000 New Jobs in High-Tech Fields
Apple also revealed plans to hire 20,000 new U.S. employees across research and development, silicon engineering, software development, and artificial intelligence. These hires are part of Apple’s commitment to becoming a leader in future-facing technologies while expanding its domestic footprint.
This job creation effort was first hinted at during Apple’s July 31 earnings call, where Cook stated the goal was to “drive innovation and create jobs in cutting-edge fields.”
Politics, Optics, and Tariffs
In a move designed for political resonance, Cook gifted President Trump a plaque made of Corning glass and 24-karat gold, featuring the Apple logo at its center. The gesture came as Trump reiterated his desire for more U.S.-based manufacturing.
“As you know, Apple’s been an investor in other countries—I won’t say which ones—but a couple. And they’re coming home,” Trump said.
The announcement also comes as Trump prepares to implement new tariffs on semiconductor components. Apple, facing pressure, has shifted some iPhone manufacturing to India to sidestep Chinese tariffs, a move Trump previously criticized.
Investor Confidence Rises
Shares of Apple rose 5.1% in regular trading and another 2.1% after hours. Analysts say the surge reflects investor confidence in Cook’s renewed alignment with the administration and proactive stance on avoiding punitive trade measures.
“When you play nice with the administration, you get better outcomes,” said Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson, who rates Apple a Buy with a $250 price target.
“The stock is up on the news—likely a relief rally,” added Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments, noting that the gesture may ease tensions after months of political silence from Apple leadership.
The Big Picture for Apple
As global supply chains fracture and national security concerns drive new regulation, Apple’s U.S. investment 2025 initiative reflects a smart strategic pivot. By doubling down on domestic production and job creation, Apple is hedging against geopolitical risks while reinforcing its image as a patriotic innovator.
Apple’s future success will likely depend not just on innovation, but on its ability to manage relationships with policymakers, secure stable supply chains, and remain agile in a shifting global trade landscape.
Conclusion
The expanded Apple U.S. investment 2025 plan positions the tech giant as a key player in America’s economic future. With 20,000 new jobs, an AI-driven focus, and Corning’s Kentucky glass plant at the center of its manufacturing strategy, Apple is not just building devices—it’s helping rebuild a domestic technology infrastructure.
In the race for economic resilience and global leadership, Apple just made its next big move.