Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Tesla AI stock 2025?
Why Tesla Stock Is a Must-Own in the Age of AI
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged 5.4% Monday to close at $435.90, rebounding from Friday’s sharp selloff. The move was fueled by a new bullish call from Melius Research, which initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $520 price target. Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla is positioned to lead the next wave of industrial disruption driven by artificial intelligence.
AI as the Next Catalyst
Wertheimer called Tesla a “must-own” stock, arguing that AI-driven automation will “wreck multi-trillion dollar industries, starting with auto.” Tesla’s end-to-end integration of software, hardware, and data gives it a competitive edge that traditional automakers cannot replicate. From self-driving algorithms to humanoid robotics, Tesla’s “AI flywheel” continues to accelerate.
“Tesla and the Musk ecosystem combine technology, design, and manufacturing in a way no one else can,” Wertheimer wrote. The company is effectively a hybrid of AI lab, EV manufacturer, and robotics company—a rare combination that could redefine its valuation beyond traditional auto metrics.
Market Context
The bullish upgrade arrives amid broader macro turbulence. President Trump reassured markets that his administration’s trade standoff with China will not derail the economy. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3% on Monday, helping lift risk sentiment in growth sectors.
Tesla remains a bellwether for the EV and AI convergence trade. Its integration of large-scale computing, energy storage, and autonomy data provides exposure to three high-growth verticals simultaneously: transportation, power, and machine learning.
Trader’s Take
- Momentum Watch: After rebounding from $410 support, Tesla is back above its 20-day moving average. Intraday traders should watch $440 for continuation and $426 for downside confirmation.
- Short-Term Setup: Above $440, price targets align with $455 and $470. Failure to hold $426 could trigger a retracement toward $410.
- Swing Trade View: As long as Tesla holds above $410, the bias remains bullish toward $520–$540 in Q4, especially if the AI and robotaxi narrative gains traction.
- Sector Read-Through: Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Mobileye (MBLY) often move in sympathy. Traders can monitor correlation strength for rotational plays within the AI-auto ecosystem.
Why It Matters
Tesla’s AI positioning transcends EV manufacturing — it’s about data ownership and compute capacity. With full self-driving capability nearing commercial viability and the Optimus robot expected to enter pilot deployment, Tesla’s core multiple may shift toward software-style valuation metrics in the coming year.
Nearly 47% of analysts now rate Tesla a Buy, and the stock’s ability to rally despite macro pressure reinforces its leadership in both AI and EV narratives.
Bottom Line
Tesla is trading less like an automaker and more like a tech platform. The latest upgrade underscores the idea that Musk’s AI ecosystem could become the defining growth story of 2025.
For traders, pullbacks toward $420–$425 are likely to attract dip buyers targeting a re-test of $450+ as momentum builds.
Levi Strauss earnings 2025
Levi Strauss Raises Prices and Profits — But the Stock Sells Off
Levi Strauss (NYSE: LEVI) delivered a clean earnings beat for the third quarter — stronger profit margins, solid revenue growth, and an upgraded outlook. Yet shares fell sharply in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious guidance and trader rotation out of retail ahead of the holiday quarter.
Quarter Highlights
- Adjusted EPS: $0.34 vs $0.31 expected
- Revenue: $1.54B vs $1.50B expected
- Gross Margin: 61.7% (up 110 bps YoY)
- Full-Year EPS Outlook: $1.27–$1.32 (raised from $1.25–$1.30)
- Full-Year Revenue Growth: +3%, up from prior 1–2%
CEO Michelle Gass said Levi’s targeted price increases have not hurt demand — a critical point for investors worried about elasticity amid consumer fatigue. “We’ve been surgical and thoughtful,” Gass told CNBC, adding that strong brand equity allows the company to hold margins even under tariff pressure.
Margins and Strategy
Levi’s gross margin expansion came from higher direct-to-consumer sales, less discounting, and premium price positioning.
Online and owned-store sales rose 11%, while women’s apparel grew 9%. The company continues to diversify beyond denim — with tops now making up nearly 40% of total sales.
Tariffs remain a wildcard: Levi’s assumes U.S. import duties at 30% and global duties at 20% through year-end. The company has restored its pre-tariff margin outlook but remains “conservative” about Q4 spending trends.
Trader’s Take
- Post-Earnings Reaction: Despite the beat, LEVI sold off 6% after hours — a likely “sell-the-news” event after a 42% year-to-date gain.
- Technical Levels: Watch $21.40 support (prior breakout level). Breakdown could test $19.80–$20.00.
A recovery through $22.75 could reestablish upside momentum toward $24.50. - Intraday Bias: Expect volatile opens driven by retail ETF rotation (XRT). Watch pre-market VWAP behavior — if buyers defend $21, scalpers can lean long with tight stops.
- Swing Traders: Favor entries near prior support with risk defined under $19.80. A close above $23 confirms continuation into the holiday retail cycle.
Sector Implications
Levi’s results echo broader consumer trends: resilient demand at higher price points and margin expansion through direct sales. Competitors such as Lululemon (LULU), Ralph Lauren (RL), and Gap (GPS) may benefit from similar pricing dynamics if consumer discretionary spending holds up through Q4.
However, traders should note: if Levi’s weakness persists despite strong fundamentals, it may signal early exhaustion in the retail rally.
Bottom Line
Levi Strauss just proved it can raise prices without losing customers — a rare feat in 2025’s tariff-driven retail environment.
The fundamentals look solid, but the chart is flashing caution. For traders, the next few sessions will reveal whether this is a simple earnings shakeout — or the start of sector-wide profit taking.
Russia’s Stablecoin Sidesteps Sanctions
Russia’s A7A5 Stablecoin Sidesteps Sanctions — and Sends Ripples Through Global Crypto Markets
How the Kremlin’s New Crypto Network Evaded Western Sanctions
At the center of the scheme is A7A5, a rouble-backed stablecoin used in the A7 cross-border payment system—a Russia-sponsored alternative to SWIFT.According to a Financial Times investigation, A7A5’s administrators “destroyed” 80 % of outstanding tokens tied to sanctioned wallets, then instantly recreated identical amounts in new accounts, effectively scrubbing their history.
The new wallet—active mainly during Moscow trading hours—has since processed over $6.1 billion in transactions.
This maneuver exposes the challenge regulators face in tracking blockchain-based sanctions evasion. It also underlines Moscow’s growing push to bypass dollar-dominated payment rails.
Why It Matters
- Geopolitical finance realignment: A7A5 has been officially authorized as a “digital financial asset” by Russia’s central bank, backed 1-to-1 with roubles via Promsvyazbank—a sanctioned defense lender.
- Global expansion: A7 claims to have handled $86 billion in ten months, with operations stretching from Eurasia to Africa.
- Western enforcement limits: Token burn-and-reissue techniques make sanctions nearly unenforceable without real-time blockchain monitoring.
- Regulatory fallout: The EU is preparing to ban transactions in A7A5 entirely; the U.S. is expected to tighten oversight on stablecoins traded via Tron and Ethereum networks.
Market Impact
- Crypto exchanges: Expect increased scrutiny of offshore venues operating from “friendly” jurisdictions such as Kyrgyzstan or the UAE.
- Stablecoin sentiment: Regulatory pressure could temporarily weaken USDT and USDC liquidity in Europe, but may also boost compliance-driven options like PYUSD.
- BTC & ETH: Historically rally on sanctions-driven capital flight; BTC has gained during every major Russia-related financial tightening since 2022.
- U.S. defense & cybersecurity names: Firms like PLTR, CRWD, and FTNT could benefit from demand for real-time blockchain surveillance and compliance systems.
Trading Implications
Day Trading:
- Watch COIN, RIOT, MARA: Look for intraday volume spikes tied to sanction-related headlines. Volatility tends to cluster around 9:30 – 11 a.m. ET.
Swing Trading:
- Long bias: NVDA, AMD, PLTR—beneficiaries of AI-driven compliance and crypto analytics demand.
- Short bias: Offshore exchanges and altcoins on Tron; potential U.S./EU sanctions could pressure TRX and low-cap privacy tokens.
- Macro hedge: Long gold (XAU/USD) or GLD ETF—historically rises during financial-sanctions cycles and blockchain capital shifts.
Bottom Line
The A7A5 network proves that digital finance can mutate faster than regulators can adapt.
For traders, the playbook is clear: **fade weak, over-hyped altcoins; favor compliant U.S. crypto equities; and watch BTC and ETH for safe-haven rotation** when sanctions headlines break.
This story reinforces a broader macro theme—**geopolitical risk is now a trading signal, not just a headline.**