Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.August 25, 2025 Stocks On The Move
Stocks moving today: Intel, Keurig Dr Pepper, Wayfair, Strategy, Nvidia, Vital Energy
Intel (INTC) – Government Stake Adds Volatility
Intel dropped 1% to $24.55 after confirming a $8.9B investment from the U.S. government for a 9.9% stake. While passive, the deal makes the government Intel’s largest shareholder. Friday’s rally has cooled.
Day-trading implication: Watch $24.50 as support and $25–26 as resistance. For stocks moving today, Intel offers mean reversion trades around those levels.
Wayfair (W) and Furniture Retailers – Tariff Fears
Wayfair sank 5.9% alongside RH (-5.3%) and Williams-Sonoma (-2.7%) after tariff probes on imported furniture. Ethan Allen (+0.3%) and La-Z-Boy (+0.1%) edged higher thanks to domestic production.
Day-trading implication: Import-heavy retailers are short setups; U.S.-based producers are potential long scalps. Tariff news keeps furniture in the basket of stocks moving today.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) & Coinbase – Bitcoin Correlation
Strategy fell 4.2% and Coinbase 4.3% as Bitcoin slid, despite Strategy announcing the purchase of 3,081 Bitcoins at ~$116K each.
Day-trading implication: For crypto-linked stocks moving today, Bitcoin levels remain the key guide. Fade bounces if BTC weakens further.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) – Acquisition Pressure
KDP dropped 11.5% after unveiling an $18B purchase of JDE Peet’s. Investors balked at the deal size and potential integration risk.
Day-trading implication: KDP sits high on the list of stocks moving today. Short failed rallies with elevated volume; deal risk acts as a ceiling near term.
Verint Systems (VRNT) – Buyout Premium
Verint slipped 1.3% despite Thoma Bravo agreeing to acquire the company for $20.50 a share. With the stock near deal price, upside is capped.
Day-trading implication: Not a top choice among stocks moving today, unless new regulatory or competitive dynamics surface.
Vital Energy (VTLE) & Crescent Energy (CRGY) – M&A Divergence
Vital Energy surged 14.5% on a merger deal with Crescent Energy, which fell 4%. Vital benefits from the premium; Crescent absorbs dilution risk.
Day-trading implication: Momentum trades favor Vital on the long side; Crescent is a short candidate among stocks moving today.
Nvidia (NVDA) – Earnings in Focus
Nvidia rose 1% ahead of quarterly earnings. Shares remain up 35% this year but have seen two weeks of losses. Nvidia continues as the AI bellwether.
Day-trading implication: With Nvidia topping the list of stocks moving today, expect wide ranges and elevated IV. Use defined levels; beware holding risk through earnings.
Other Notables
- American Eagle (AEO): Fell 2.7% on a downgrade to Underperform at BofA.
- PDD Holdings (PDD): Slipped 0.9% despite strong earnings.
- Heico & Semtech: Earnings reports after the bell.
Bottom line
Today’s market highlights how policy, M&A, sector flows, and upcoming catalysts create the list of stocks moving today. For traders, opportunities lie in sympathy plays, volume-driven setups, and disciplined risk management heading into Nvidia’s earnings.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp Stock Sale
Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale: price impact and a day-trading playbook
What happened
The filing shows Alex Karp sold 409,072 PLTR shares across Wednesday–Thursday in a range of $142.46 to $157.56. The sales were executed automatically to cover tax-withholding obligations following restricted-stock vesting, and Karp still holds roughly 6.43 million shares (valued above $1 billion at Monday’s prices). After a year of outsized gains—PLTR has more than doubled YTD—the stock fell about 1% to $157.17 on Monday and recently logged its longest losing streak since April 2024.
Sector context matters: AI leaders have cooled as investors debate the durability of AI revenues, and the market is laser-focused on Nvidia’s upcoming report as a bellwether for AI demand.
How a Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale can affect price
Potential near-term pressure
- Headline psychology: CEO selling (even when pre-programmed and tax-driven) can be read as a signal to take profits.
- Momentum sensitivity: After big YTD gains and a six-day slide, weak hands may trim risk into resistance.
- Beta & flows: If software/AI ETFs bleed, PLTR can see amplified moves via basket selling.
Why the hit may fade
- Non-discretionary: The filing cites automatic sales for tax withholding—less indicative of management outlook.
- Still large ownership: Karp’s stake remains significant, aligning long-term incentives.
- Upcoming catalyst: Strong AI commentary elsewhere (e.g., Nvidia) can overpower insider headlines.
Key levels & scenarios to watch
Use the Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale price band as a technical frame of reference. Traders often anchor to disclosed sale ranges when gauging supply and demand.
| Scenario | What to watch | Trading thoughts (educational) |
|---|---|---|
| Sell-the-news drift | Rejections near 157–158 (Monday high & top of sale band); weak tape in AI peers | Consider fade setups against defined resistance; look for lower highs below VWAP with rising sell volume |
| Range break lower | Loss of 150/147.5 round-number supports on volume | Momentum continuation entries only on clean breakdowns; avoid chasing if liquidity thins |
| Capitulation & reclaim | Flush toward 145–142.5 (lower sale band) followed by VWAP reclaim | Watch for reversal patterns (failed breakdowns, higher low + VWAP hold) for bounce trades |
| Catalyst reversal | Positive AI macro (e.g., upbeat NVDA guide) + PLTR push through 158+ | Shift bias to buy-the-dip; use opening-range breakout rules with tight risk parameters |
A day-trading playbook for PLTR
- Opening plan: Map the prior day high/low, Monday close at 157.17, and the Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale band (142.46–157.56). Build ORB (1- to 5-minute) rules around those anchors.
- VWAP discipline: In headline tapes, treat VWAP as your bias toggle. Below and refusing—favor fades; reclaim and hold—favor dips to VWAP with higher lows.
- Volume tells: Require confirmation—expanding volume on breaks, drying up on pullbacks. Insider headlines without volume expansion often mean mean-reversion.
- Relative strength/weakness: Pair PLTR against an AI basket. If PLTR underperforms on green NVDA, the insider overhang may still be in control; if it outperforms on red NVDA, buyers are absorbing supply.
- Risk first: Pre-define max loss per idea; avoid holding through binary events you don’t intend to trade; scale only on confirmation.
What could change the narrative
Beyond the Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale, watch for follow-on SEC filings, buyback updates, large customer wins, or guidance commentary from AI leaders. Any of these can crowd out insider-sale sentiment and re-ignite momentum—or compound weakness if they disappoint.
Bottom line
The Palantir CEO Alex Karp stock sale introduces a short-term sentiment headwind after a powerful YTD run. In the very near term, price is likely to key off the disclosed sale band and broader AI headlines. For day traders, that’s fertile ground: clear levels, a live narrative, and imminent catalysts—just make sure your risk management is as disciplined as your entries.
NIO stock soars on ES8 launch
NIO Stock Soars on ES8 Launch (Aug 2025)
A cheaper ES8 with Battery‑as‑a‑Service, the new L90, and improving deliveries have investors re‑rating NIO. Here’s what changed—and how to trade it.
What’s New
ES8 goes live with aggressive BaaS pricing
NIO’s refreshed ES8 opened for pre‑orders with a headline price that falls substantially when buyers opt into Battery‑as‑a‑Service (BaaS). Six‑ and seven‑seat Executive editions are available now, with an official launch in late September and deliveries beginning immediately thereafter.
L90 targets mass‑market scale
The L90 SUV expands NIO’s addressable market and is positioned to ramp into year‑end. Street expectations call for five‑figure monthly volumes if supply chains hold and pricing remains competitive.
Why It Matters
- Price optics: BaaS lowers upfront cost and highlights NIO’s ecosystem edge with battery swapping.
- Mix shift: ES8 + L90 broaden the portfolio beyond earlier niches, supporting scale efficiencies.
- Sentiment reset: Recent analyst upgrades and a broad market rebound amplify stock‑specific catalysts.
Delivery Momentum
NIO delivered 72,056 vehicles in Q2 2025, up mid‑20s percent year over year, with June pacing near 25k units. That trajectory, combined with the ES8/L90 cadence, supports the case for stronger H2 volumes.
Rivals & the China Price War
Chinese EV makers remain locked in an aggressive pricing cycle as domestic demand wobbles and export policies evolve. Against that backdrop, NIO’s swap infrastructure and BaaS model aim to protect margins and stickiness. Tesla’s China unit remains a benchmark on volumes and brand, but softer second‑quarter retail sales underscore how sentiment can swing with policy headlines and local preferences.
Trading Playbook
1) Event‑Driven Setups
- Pre‑order/launch windows: Watch for Opening Gap and Volatility Band setups around ES8 and L90 milestones; let the initial impulse print, then stalk the first pullback to anchored VWAP.
- Delivery updates (monthly/quarterly): Favor confirmation entries when order flow aligns with volume beats or margin commentary.
2) Relative Value
- Map NIO vs. TSLA, BYD, LI, XPEV on intraday strength/weakness; use pairs overlays to frame risk.
- Respect currency and tariff headlines; adjust size around macro windows.
3) Risk Management
- Fade euphoric spikes into multi‑day resistance; avoid chasing first prints.
- Use prior‑day value areas and liquidity pockets for stop placement.
Disclaimer: Educational content only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
US Stablecoin Rules Deposit Outflows
US stablecoin rules deposit outflows — the fight over a “yield” loophole
What changed: the GENIUS Act
In July, Congress passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, the first federal framework for “payment stablecoins.” It requires high-quality reserves and permits banks to issue coins, but it prohibits issuers from paying interest or yield to holders. The law does not explicitly bar affiliates like exchanges from offering rewards tied to third-party coins—setting up today’s clash over US stablecoin rules deposit outflows.
Why banks are alarmed
- Uneven playing field: Banks can issue coins but can’t pay yield; exchanges could still offer rewards on coins like USDC or USDT.
- Deposit flight risk: Trade groups warn that if rewards persist, consumers could shift cash from deposits into yield-bearing stablecoins—potentially accelerating US stablecoin rules deposit outflows during stress.
- Credit transmission: Fewer deposits may lift bank funding costs, resulting in higher loan rates and tighter credit for households and small businesses.
The “interest loophole,” explained
The Act bans issuer-paid interest, but some exchanges and partners can structure rewards for holding third-party stablecoins (staking-like programs, fee-share, or promotional APRs). Bank groups want Congress to extend the prohibition to exchanges and affiliates, arguing this closes the gap, fueling US stablecoin rules deposit outflows.
What crypto says
Crypto trade associations counter that payment stablecoins aren’t bank deposits or investment products, and that banning exchange rewards would entrench banks and reduce competition. They argue consumer choice—especially for digital dollars used globally—shouldn’t be curbed to avoid hypothetical US stablecoin rules deposit outflows.
Macro angle: Treasuries demand vs. banking system impact
Because leading stablecoins hold large T-bill reserves, a growing market could deepen demand for short-term U.S. debt—even as banks warn about US stablecoin rules deposit outflows from the traditional system. Policymakers are weighing these trade-offs: more efficient dollar rails and Treasury demand on one side, potential pressure on bank funding and credit creation on the other.
Trading angles
- Bank funding spreads: Headlines about amendments or hearings may widen/normalize NIM expectations and short-tenor funding spreads.
- Exchange-exposed equities: Names tied to stablecoin rewards could react to any move to restrict exchange-level yield programs.
- T-bill complex: Sustained stablecoin growth supports incremental bill demand; watch auction tails and bill/OIS basis for signals.
- Event path: Track draft amendments, committee calendars, and Treasury guidance—each a possible catalyst.
Bottom line
This fight isn’t just about who can pay “yield.” It’s about the future mix of deposits versus digital dollars—and whether policy prioritizes banking intermediation or open competition in dollar payments. As Congress weighs fixes, the trajectory of US stablecoin rules deposit outflows will hinge on how (and if) the interest prohibition is extended to exchanges and affiliates.
xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI
xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI over ChatGPT–iPhone integration
What happened
On August 25, 2025, Musk’s companies X and xAI filed suit in U.S. federal court in Texas, alleging that Apple’s iOS integration of ChatGPT via Apple Intelligence and Siri—combined with App Store ranking and curation—creates an anticompetitive advantage for OpenAI. The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI claims this “locks up” distribution on iPhones and depresses visibility for competing chatbots, including Grok.
The core allegations
- Preferential integration: ChatGPT receives first-class access on iPhone, while Grok and others do not.
- App Store dynamics: Curation and rankings allegedly favor ChatGPT, steering users away from alternatives.
- Market effects: The complaint argues the arrangement entrenches OpenAI’s position and harms competition and consumer choice.
Apple and OpenAI reject these claims; OpenAI characterizes the filing as part of an ongoing pattern of harassment, while Apple maintains its App Store policies are fair and pro-consumer.
Why this matters
The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI spotlights a pivotal question: when a platform bakes one AI assistant into the operating system, where’s the line between product design and anticompetitive conduct? The outcome could influence how default AI experiences work across mobile devices, cars, and wearables.
Trading angles
- Headline volatility: Expect outsized moves in names directly tied to the case (AAPL, private OpenAI exposure via partners) and sympathy swings in AI-adjacent equities.
- Platform risk premiums: If regulators or courts scrutinize defaults and distribution, platform owners could see a modest multiple overhang.
- Alt-assistant trade: Any sign of broader iOS access for competing assistants could catalyze rivals; track install-share data and App Store category ranks.
- Options setups: Elevated implied volatility around hearings or regulatory commentary can favor defined-risk spreads.
Context: the Musk–Altman rift
The xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI also extends Musk’s long-running dispute with OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman. Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015, later departed, and has since launched xAI and previously filed separate claims over OpenAI’s structure and mission.
Bottom line
Whatever the legal outcome, the xAI lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI accelerates a broader conversation about default AI access on dominant platforms. For traders, keep an eye on court milestones, regulatory commentary, and any shifts in Apple’s integration roadmap—each could be a tradable catalyst.