Forgotten Profits Trade Setup Archive
Below you'll find Ian's setups stacked up and ordered chronologically. As this service once resided at another home, the alerts only go back to mid July. For a full track record, see the portfolio.Trade Idea | May 2, 2016 | SLV
Silver (SLV) has been on a monster run over the past few weeks, but is reaching overbought levels on a 14 day RSI basis that have coincided with significant tops in the past. Once SLV begins to drop, the profit taking could be the driver for a sharp downmove.
Consider taking a long put position out in June to position for a counter trend pullback with defined risk.
TRADE IDEA
Buy SLV June 17.50 puts @ 1.00 to open
These expire 6/17/16
Trade Idea | April 25, 2016 | CAT
The CAT 4/22 73 puts that were sold as part of the diagonal spread expired worthless, leaving us net long the CAT May 75 puts for a net cost of 1.25.
These puts closed at 1.45 on Monday, let’s offer them at 1.60 Good Until Cancelled and see if we can grab a 28% gain.
CLOSE OUT
Sell to close the CAT May 75 puts @ 1.60 GTC
These expire 5/20/16
Trade Idea | April 14, 2016 | CAT
Caterpillar (CAT) is normally highly correlated to the price of oil, but over the past month that correlation has broken down.
Since March 17th, Oil is virtually unchanged while CAT has rallied 10%. The last time CAT was this rich compared to oil led to a significant sell off in CAT shares.
Earnings are due April 22, setting up a very nice put diagonal spread to position bearishly and take advantage of selling expensive options.
You can see me talk about this trade on Bloomberg TV “Options Insight”
TRADE IDEA
Buy to open CAT May 75 puts (expire 5/20/2016)
Sell to open CAT April 73 puts (expire 4/22/2016)
1.25 net debit
Trade Idea | April 4, 2016 | SCTY Calendar
Buy SCTY April 24 puts (expire 4/15/16)Sell SCTY April 24 puts (expire 4/8/16)
Net debit 0.75
Trade Idea | March 30, 2016 | XOM
Oil rally and oil stocks look to have stalled out. The last rally up ti the $42 level on crude signified the biggest short covering rally on record. With the shorts now done covering, weak fundamentals and a stronger dollar should put alid on a further leg higher.
ExxonMobil (XOM) is the biggest of the big oil producers, and the stock looks toppy around the $84.50 level.
Let’s give ourselves an even bigger cushion and position for a stall out in the oil rally just above the recent highs at $87.
TRADE IDEA
Sell the XOM May $87.50 calls
Buy the XOM May $90 calls
0.55 net credit
Net margin requirement $195 per spread.
March 7, 2016 [Trade Alert] | Close AMZN Position | Net Credit 4.40
Sell to close AMZN March 550 puts (expire 3/18/16)
Buy to close AMZN March 550 puts (expire 3/11/2016)
Net credit 4.40
Trade Idea | March 2, 2016 | AMZN
TRADE IDEA
Buy AMZN March 550 puts (expire 3/18/16)
Sell AMZN March 550 puts (expire 3/11/2016)
Net debit 2.70
February 29, 2016 – Facebook Spread
With Facebook (FB) treading water and looking rangebound, I am positioning to take advantage of Facebook having trouble making new all time highs over the coming few months.
FB number 6 market cap stock in US…hard to imagine them growing into their multiple ( nearly 80 P/E) anytime soon..law of large numbers applies.
Plus at its highs, Facebook was bigger than Berkshire Hathaway.
In my world, hard to imagine Mark Zuckerberg being bigger than Warren Buffett.
Also the short 115 strike correlates to the all time high of 115.09 on FB
TRADE IDEA
Sell FB April 115 calls
Buy FB April 120 calls
0.82 net credit
These are the regular monthly options that expire 4/15/2016
Margin requirement is $412 per spread.
Good Trading,
Tim Biggam
[FP Trader Alert] FedEx and UPS at Support…
After a 2013 shipping debacle left Amazon vowing to never again to use FedEx or UPS, there are rumors that Amazon could launch its own delivery service. The fear of an Amazon third party logistics service has been damaging to UPS and FDX. But we have to remember that Amazon still relies very heavily on the two shipping giants, because let’s face it. Logistics isn’t easy…
And we have to consider that the absence of Amazon may not be terribly damaging to the bottom line of UPS or FDX. Over the last 12 months, UPS generated $58 billion in revenues. FDX generated $48 billion. Amazon had shipping costs of $10.4 billon, which tells us a loss of Amazon wouldn’t be as bad as many believe.
And even if Amazon does launch a third party logistics service, it won’t happen for quite some time. Logistics is no easy task.
Technically, UPS and FDX have found solid support after their latest tumble, as well.
After finding double bottom support just above $140 with oversold reads on MFI, MACD and RSI, FDX is just beginning to bounce back. We’d like to see a move to at least $160, near-term. Consider buying to open the FDX February 2016 150 calls up to $5.60.
UPS has also found historical support just above $96 a share with oversold reads on MFI, MACD and RSI, too. We’d like to see a move to at least $102. Consider buying to open the UPS April 2016 97.50 calls up to $4.60 and / or the February 2016 97.50 calls up to $3.40.
Have a very happy holiday… and a happy, healthy, profitable New Year…
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits
[FP Trader Alert] Exiting Pandora… Consider H&R Block…
In November 2015, we recommended a buy on the Pandora (P) January 12 calls, exiting half for up to 60% just days after. Today, as the underlying stock moves to $13.45, the calls last traded at $2.80. Sell to close…
As for new trades, consider H&R Block (HRB) upside.
After dipping on earnings, H&R Block (HRB) has become massively oversold technically with MACD and RSI. Even MFI is beginning to reverse well off recent lows. With tax season creeping up on us, the stock could easily tick higher as it has over the last few years… We’re willing to bet the stock bounces well off these recent lows, potentially refilling its bearish gap from about $37 a share.
The best way to trade a potential reversal here is by buying to open the HRB April 2016 33 calls up to $2.60 and / or the April 2016 34 calls up to $2.
Happy Holidays!!!
Ian L. Cooper
Forgotten Profits