The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Trump’s EU Deal Leaves Markets Guessing
Trade Truce or Powder Keg? Trump’s EU Deal Leaves Markets Guessing
Friday Deadline: New U.S. Tariffs Set to Hit
Trump signed an executive order imposing a 15% tariff on most EU imports, effective Friday. The EU, facing the prospect of a major trade war, opted to freeze its retaliatory measures for now, but tensions remain high—especially in sectors like German autos, French wine, and European steel.
What’s at Stake for the Markets?
1. Auto Industry in the Crosshairs
The fate of European car exports to the U.S. is still unclear. Germany, home to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, is particularly vulnerable. Any delay or denial of tariff exemptions could trigger weakness in U.S.-listed ADRs and global auto stocks.
2. Wine, Spirits, and Luxury Goods
The EU is lobbying to exempt wine and spirits from the 15% tariff, with France and Italy leading the charge. Failure to secure carve-outs could pressure luxury and consumer discretionary sectors.
3. Steel and Aluminum Quotas
The EU seeks tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for steel and aluminum—lower tariffs for volumes within historical norms. The U.S. has yet to sign off, leaving uncertainty for manufacturers.
4. Chemical and Medical Device Exemptions
The EU also wants exclusions for chemicals and medical devices. Ongoing negotiations will determine their inclusion in the exemption list.
Geopolitical Undercurrents
This trade détente follows Trump’s recent ultimatum to Russia regarding Ukraine. The intersection of trade diplomacy and geopolitical strategy reflects Trump’s broader effort to use economic leverage as a negotiating tool across multiple fronts.
European leaders remain concerned about U.S. security guarantees and are cautious about ceding too much ground in trade talks that could set lasting precedents.
Market Outlook: Risk-On or Risk-Off?
- Short-Term: Volatility in European export sectors is likely until more clarity emerges.
- Medium-Term: Sanctions on Russia or further policy shifts could spark risk-off moves and safe haven flows.
- Long-Term: A deglobalization trend may take root, reshaping supply chains and pressuring multinational profitability.
Final Thought: A Trade Deal Without Teeth?
Despite the truce, many critical details are unsettled. The EU’s retaliatory tariffs remain “in the freezer”—not abandoned. For traders and investors, this means more headline risk, more volatility, and more reliance on fast-moving policy updates.
TraderInsight Pro Tip: Monitor U.S. and EU trade announcements, shipping indices, and FX pairs like the EUR/USD for signs of pressure. Tariff news has become a key market-moving catalyst in 2025.
Intel’s new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan at the center of a high-stakes battle
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan Faces Internal Rift, Political Pressure, and Strategic Crossroads
Intel’s new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, has been in the job for just a few months, but already finds himself at the center of a high-stakes battle — one that spans boardroom disputes, political interference, and strategic questions that could reshape the semiconductor industry. For traders, this drama isn’t just a corporate soap opera. It has real implications for chip sector valuations, U.S.–China tech tensions, and the broader market’s appetite for semiconductor risk.
The Boardroom Showdown
From the moment Tan took the reins in March — a move that initially sent Intel’s shares up over 13% — it was clear he had big plans. A turnaround veteran who previously led Cadence Design Systems, Tan entered with a vision to reinvest in Intel’s manufacturing capacity, pursue AI acquisitions, and shore up the company’s lagging competitive position against Nvidia and AMD.
But Intel’s board, led by Chairman Frank Yeary, has not been entirely on board. The two sides reportedly clashed almost immediately over whether Intel should remain in the chip manufacturing business — a segment that last year supplied about a third of Intel’s revenue but has been a persistent money-loser. Yeary had explored spinning off the foundry division entirely, potentially bringing in strategic investors like Nvidia or Amazon, or even selling to Taiwan’s TSMC.
Tan, by contrast, views domestic manufacturing as a cornerstone of Intel’s future and a strategic necessity for U.S. national security, particularly in an era where Washington is laser-focused on reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.
Deals Delayed and Opportunities Lost
- Capital Raise Stalled – Tan wanted to move quickly on a multibillion-dollar capital raise to strengthen Intel’s balance sheet and accelerate investment in fabrication plants. The board slowed the process, possibly delaying it until 2026.
- AI Acquisition Slips Away – Intel had targeted an AI company to close the gap with Nvidia and AMD in machine learning and data center hardware. But the board’s slow deliberation left the door open for a rival bidder.
- Partnerships That Fizzled – Recent strategic partnerships have fallen apart, adding to the sense that Intel is losing time in a fast-moving market.
The company has responded by cutting costs — including a 15% workforce reduction — and slowing construction on new U.S. and European plants. As Tan told staff, “Every investment must make economic sense.”
Political Storm Clouds
The corporate power struggle took a dramatic turn when former President Donald Trump publicly called for Tan’s resignation, citing “conflicts” tied to his past business relationships with Chinese firms. This follows the Justice Department’s $140 million settlement with Cadence Design — the company Tan ran until 2021 — over sales to a Chinese military university.
Political pressure intensified when U.S. senators from both parties — including Republican Tom Cotton and Democrat-turned-Republican Bernie Moreno — questioned Tan’s suitability for the role. Trump’s intervention also comes as his administration is reshaping semiconductor policy, leaning more heavily on tariffs and revisiting CHIPS Act agreements.
This political overlay adds an extra layer of uncertainty for traders: even if Tan survives the boardroom fight, he may have to navigate a hostile policy environment that could shape Intel’s capital access, government contracts, and customer relationships.
What It All Means for Traders
- Short-Term Volatility – Any news on Tan’s status, whether it’s his resignation, board restructuring, or new political attacks, could trigger sharp moves in INTC shares.
- Sector Spillover – Intel’s strategic decisions affect not only its own stock but also competitors like AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC.
- U.S.–China Trade Sensitivity – Tan’s ties to Chinese firms, coupled with Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, put Intel squarely in the crosshairs of geopolitical risk.
- AI Race Implications – Delays in AI-related acquisitions and R&D could widen the gap between Intel and its AI-heavy rivals.
- Policy-Driven Plays – With Washington rethinking the CHIPS Act, politically aligned companies may enjoy a valuation premium.
The Bigger Picture
Intel’s fate under Tan is a microcosm of the modern tech-industrial landscape: a once-dominant player struggling to adapt, an internal tug-of-war between financial pragmatism and strategic sovereignty, and political actors willing to shape corporate leadership for national security aims.
For traders, the lesson is clear: INTC is not just a semiconductor stock anymore — it’s a geopolitical asset, a restructuring story, and a volatility generator all in one.
Trader’s Risk/Reward Playbook
| Scenario | Market Impact | Potential Trade | Risk Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tan Stays & Gains Board Support | Relief rally in INTC; sentiment improves on perceived stability and clarity of manufacturing strategy. | Long INTC on breakout above resistance; look for follow-through in semiconductor ETFs (SMH, SOXX). | Political attacks could still weigh; execution risk on delayed deals. |
| Tan Resigns | Initial sell-off on uncertainty, potential rebound if replacement seen as market-friendly. | Fade initial panic for swing trade; watch for leadership signals from new CEO pick. | Volatility could spike; risk of further strategic drift. |
| Intel Exits Manufacturing | Short-term pop on cost-cutting narrative; long-term risk to U.S. supply chain positioning. | Short-term long on momentum; hedge with puts if narrative turns national security-focused. | Backlash from policymakers; risk of losing strategic customers. |
| Major AI Acquisition Secured | Strong bullish sentiment; narrows competitive gap with Nvidia/AMD. | Long INTC; pair trade long INTC/short weaker AI laggards. | Integration and execution risk; overpayment concerns. |
| Escalating U.S.–China Tensions | Broad semiconductor sector volatility; INTC under pressure due to scrutiny of Tan’s ties. | Hedge with inverse semiconductor ETFs; short INTC on tariff headlines. | Fast-moving headlines; risk of policy reversal. |
In short, Intel is now a headline-driven trading instrument. For active traders, the key is agility — be ready to pivot positions as the political, strategic, and boardroom narratives evolve.
Driverless Trucks Hit the Night Shift on Texas Highways
A new chapter in U.S. freight transport is unfolding under the stars. Autonomous trucks are now running overnight routes on some of Texas’s busiest highways, thanks to Aurora Innovation, a company pushing the boundaries of self-driving technology.
The company’s trucks, outfitted with cutting-edge sensors and software, are currently hauling goods like dairy and produce between Dallas and Houston, marking a significant expansion of real-world driverless operations beyond daylight hours.
🔦 Technology That Sees in the Dark
Aurora’s system relies on Lidar, which uses laser pulses to map the truck’s environment in 3D—even in complete darkness. According to the company, this allows the vehicle to spot hazards more than 1,000 feet ahead, providing a reaction window of up to 11 seconds, far longer than most human drivers have at night.
This enhanced visibility enables the vehicle to distinguish between objects like a person and road debris—something that becomes more difficult in low-light conditions.
🛣️ Expanding the Autonomous Footprint
While city-based autonomous vehicles—such as Waymo’s self-driving taxis—have operated around the clock for some time, long-haul trucking has been slower to adopt nighttime operations. That’s changing.
Aurora’s trucks currently include a safety driver in the cab as a precaution, but the system has already driven over 20,000 miles without human input on public roads. Elsewhere in the region, Kodiak Robotics is operating fully driverless trucks transporting fracking materials on private roads in West Texas and New Mexico.
🚚 Impact on the Trucking Industry
Carriers like Hirschbach Motor Lines, which runs thousands of trucks nationwide, have begun integrating Aurora’s vehicles into their logistics network. CEO Richard Stocking believes automation could help address industry challenges, from driver shortages to the need for more predictable schedules.
“If autonomous trucks take on the longest routes, human drivers can handle the local jobs—and be home more often,” Stocking explained.
For companies dealing with tight delivery windows and labor constraints, 24/7 autonomous freight could provide new flexibility and efficiency.
⚠️ Not Everyone Is Sold
Some truckers, however, remain cautious. Troy Turnham, who’s been driving for years out of Oklahoma, expressed doubts about how well these vehicles will handle complex situations:
“They might be okay on empty roads, but how will they do in a thunderstorm or in snow? That’s when I worry.”
Aurora’s team acknowledges these concerns and is now working on enabling its system to drive in wet weather, with plans to roll out that capability by the end of 2025.
🚛 A Glimpse Into the Future
The success of autonomous trucks in Texas could reshape the logistics landscape. By running at night, these vehicles can avoid traffic, reduce delivery times, and unlock new economic efficiencies. With safety drivers still present for now, full autonomy remains a work in progress—but the technology is moving forward quickly.
As Aurora continues expanding to longer routes—like Phoenix to Fort Worth, a 16-hour haul that normally requires two human drivers—the question isn’t if driverless trucks will become the norm, but how soon.
August 8, 2025
Trump Chip Tariffs 2025
Trump Chip Tariffs 2025: Apple and Nvidia Secure Key Exemptions
Exemptions for U.S.-Based Investment
At a White House event showcasing Apple’s new $100 billion U.S. investment, Trump declared: “If you’re building, there will be no charge.” The announcement confirms a de facto policy many in the industry already assumed—tariff exemptions in exchange for American capital commitments.
Apple CEO Tim Cook praised the administration’s stance, noting the company plans to manufacture 19 billion chips across 24 factories in 12 states. Apple’s updated investment includes a major initiative with Corning to produce all iPhone and Apple Watch glass in Kentucky.
Apple’s Strategy and Global Trade Risks
Apple’s pledge adds to a broader $500 billion commitment announced earlier this year. However, analysts argue that much of this figure repackages existing U.S. operations. Critics caution that while splashy, such announcements don’t always create new jobs or materially re-shore manufacturing.
Apple has strategically shifted some iPhone production to India—a country Trump just hit with a 50% tariff due to oil imports from Russia. The shift from China was meant to diversify risk, but now faces fresh trade challenges of its own.
Nvidia and the Art of Influence
Also at the White House was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose company has promised $500 billion in U.S. investment. Nvidia has emerged as one of Trump’s favorite companies, particularly after joining the president on a recent trip to the Middle East and securing a rollback of export restrictions on its AI chips for China.
Trump’s praise was effusive, calling Apple’s Cook “one of the great and most esteemed business leaders, geniuses and innovators anywhere in the world.” Just months ago, Trump had criticized Apple for offshoring iPhone production, but Wednesday’s event marked a clear shift.
Tariffs, Tech, and the “Pay-to-Play” Dynamic
Industry analysts suggest we’re entering a “pay-to-play” environment in which companies can earn favorable treatment through U.S. investment pledges. According to Craig Moffett of Moffett Nathanson, “Companies can buy their way into tariff exemptions, even if those investments fall far short of actually re-shoring manufacturing.”
That sentiment was echoed by Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the Chamber of Progress, who noted, “Every company has learned a lot about how to navigate their relationship with Trump. Nvidia and Apple are among the companies that have done it the best.”
Stock Market Reaction
Apple shares rose 5.1% during regular trading on the news, and added another 3.5% after hours. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor and other chip companies gained over 3%, as clarity on exemptions eased investor concerns about broad supply chain disruption.
Conclusion
The Trump chip tariffs 2025 announcement formalizes what many industry leaders suspected: investment in American manufacturing is now a prerequisite for market stability. As the White House doubles down on its “Made in America” agenda, companies like Apple and Nvidia are positioning themselves to thrive under the new rules—whether or not their actual manufacturing footprints significantly change.
Higher Tariffs Are Here to Stay: Here is the Immediate Impact for Traders
Higher Tariffs Are Here to Stay: What Traders Need to Know Now
As of August 7, tariffs on dozens of countries are officially in effect, signaling a major shift in U.S. trade policy. The Trump administration’s strategy is clear: higher tariffs are here to stay, and their impact on the markets is just starting to unfold.
With rates ranging from 10% to 41% and 100% tariffs hitting semiconductors, traders now have a dynamic backdrop for identifying high-probability opportunities across sectors. Here’s what to watch in the days and weeks ahead.
1. Semiconductors: Watch for Rotation Into U.S. Producers
The surprise 100% tariff on all semiconductor imports has put a spotlight on domestic producers. Companies like Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) stand to gain, while firms reliant on imported chips or finished electronics could feel the squeeze.
Monitor volatility in semis. Look for long opportunities in U.S. fabs and hedged short setups in overseas-reliant manufacturers. Follow supply chain headlines for momentum triggers.
2. Industrials and Materials: Spread Pressure Mounting
With 50% tariffs still in place on steel and aluminum, cost pressure is building. This could support upstream players like Nucor (NUE) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) while hurting downstream sectors like automotive and construction.
Watch for divergence setups between raw material suppliers and industrial manufacturers. Use sector ETFs and options for directional trades.
3. Consumer Discretionary: Inflation Is Coming
As companies burn through pre-tariff inventories, price hikes are on the horizon. Economists project consumer-facing inflation to kick in by Thanksgiving, impacting retailers and discretionary spending.
Use Anchored VWAP and Volume-by-Price to identify breakdown zones in retailers like Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD). Consider long setups in consumer staples.
4. Pharma: Policy Risk and Tariff Leverage
The administration is eyeing sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals as leverage to push for “most-favored-nation” drug pricing. This adds headline risk to an already undervalued sector.
Watch for oversold setups in big pharma (e.g., Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK)). Stay nimble around generic drugmakers and industry news.
5. Legal Watch: IEEPA Challenges May Shift the Game
Many of the current tariffs rest on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If courts limit the White House’s authority under IEEPA, we could see a shift in how tariffs are applied—or a pivot to new legal levers.
Monitor macro-sensitive ETFs like DXY, UUP, and EEM. Watch for volatility around court decisions or executive action.
Final Word
The media may be slow to connect the dots, but traders know how fast market dynamics shift. Higher tariffs are here to stay, and while the effects may not tip the U.S. into recession, they will reshape supply chains, earnings, and investor psychology.
Stay nimble. Watch the headlines. Trade what you see—because volatility is back on the menu.
For more daily setups and real-time trade ideas, visit the Trader Insight War Room or sign up for our upcoming Boot Camp session.
Shadow Fleet Sanctions Could Shake Energy Markets
Trump’s Ultimatum to Putin: Shadow Fleet Sanctions Could Shake Energy Markets
The Shadow Fleet: A Key Pillar of Russian Oil Exports
Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” is a loosely organized network of oil tankers that operates outside the scrutiny of Western governments and financial institutions. These vessels—often operating under flags of convenience, with opaque ownership structures—allow Moscow to export crude oil above the Western-imposed $60 per barrel price cap, primarily to China, India, and other nations willing to look past sanctions.
These exports are a financial lifeline for the Kremlin. According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the proceeds from shadow fleet operations help finance Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, making the fleet a logical—and vulnerable—target for economic pressure.
Trump’s Strategic Shift
Since returning to office, Trump has held back on expanding sanctions in favor of pursuing a negotiated peace in Ukraine. But sources close to the White House say frustration has mounted over Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire. Trump reportedly delivered a direct ultimatum and is preparing to take action if no progress is made by Friday.
The proposed sanctions would focus on blacklisting specific vessels in the shadow fleet, a tactic seen as both symbolically powerful and practically disruptive. Enforcement is challenging, given the hidden ownership of many tankers, but targeting the vessels themselves has been effective in the past, especially when coordinated with EU and UK actions.
Last month, the EU sanctioned over 100 additional vessels, bringing the total to 415 ships now restricted. U.S. participation would amplify that effort significantly.
Diplomatic Dance: Trump, Zelenskyy, and Witkoff’s Moscow Visit
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is currently in Moscow for meetings that may be pivotal in shaping the administration’s next move. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, fresh from his own meeting with Trump, emphasized the economic toll sanctions are taking on Moscow and suggested that new measures could further strain Russia’s war effort.
“If Witkoff comes back empty-handed,” a source close to Trump said, “the president is going to go ballistic.”
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly added: “The president has been clear that there will be biting sanctions if Putin does not agree to end the war.”
Market Implications: Oil Prices, Energy Stocks, and Risk-On/Off Sentiment
If Trump follows through, the market consequences could be immediate:
1. Oil Prices May Spike
Tighter sanctions on the shadow fleet would likely disrupt Russian crude flows, particularly to Asia. Any reduction in supply—especially amid existing OPEC+ production cuts—could push Brent crude back above $90 per barrel. Traders should watch for bullish movement in energy stocks, oil ETFs (XLE, USO), and commodity-linked currencies.
2. Increased Volatility in Risk Assets
The potential for escalation between Washington and Moscow introduces fresh uncertainty. A hawkish Trump posture, especially if paired with retaliatory measures from Russia (e.g., cyberattacks, further energy weaponization), could shift sentiment toward risk-off assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury bonds.
3. China-India Oil Trade Disruption
With Russia’s preferred buyers in the crosshairs of these enforcement efforts, diplomatic tensions with Beijing and New Delhi may rise. Market participants should monitor Chinese energy companies and Indian refiners, as well as shifts in tanker routes and shipping insurance premiums.
4. Defense and Cybersecurity Sectors in Focus
Escalating geopolitical tension could renew investor interest in defense contractors (e.g., LMT, RTX) and cybersecurity firms (e.g., PANW, CRWD), both of which typically outperform during periods of heightened global risk.
Conclusion: A Crucial Week for Traders and Policymakers Alike
The coming days will be pivotal. If Trump imposes sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, the global oil market may undergo a structural shock that reignites inflationary concerns and tests already fragile supply chains.
Traders should stay nimble and closely monitor updates from the White House, Moscow, and key shipping and energy data sources. A rapid repricing of risk is possible—and those who anticipate the ripple effects will have the upper hand.
TraderInsight Pro Tip:
Watch the Brent/WTI spread, shipping rates in the Black Sea and Indian Ocean, and Russian crude discount benchmarks. They may offer early signals of disruption or market repricing in the event sanctions are enacted.