The Small Cap Swing Trader Alert Archive
Below you'll find The Small Cap Swing Trader setups stacked up and ordered chronologically.Nvidia Nears Record Highs as Trump AI Push and Google Spending Fuel Optimism
Nvidia Stock Surges as AI Momentum Builds from Both Silicon Valley and Washington
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) were on the rise again Thursday morning, buoyed by a surge in optimism around artificial intelligence. The stock climbed 1.1% in premarket trading to $172.64, following a 2.3% gain on Wednesday. With this move, Nvidia is approaching its all-time high closing price of $173, hit just last week.
A combination of public and private sector support for AI development fuels the gains. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Google’s parent company, signaled its commitment to AI infrastructure by increasing its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion—up from $52.5 billion in 2024. A substantial portion of that spend is expected to go toward building and expanding data centers powered by Nvidia’s high-performance AI chips.
Nvidia’s momentum is also being driven by a policy tailwind from Washington. On Wednesday, the Trump administration unveiled a national “action plan” to bolster American dominance in artificial intelligence. Key elements of the initiative include making it easier for tech firms to build domestic data centers—an area where Nvidia’s hardware is a cornerstone.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised the initiative during a Fox News interview Wednesday, saying:
“What the president is announcing today is going to accelerate AI innovation in America. He’s going to enable [the] American tech stack to be proliferated around the world at an incredible rate.”
Huang, who was seated in the front row of the White House’s AI Summit, appeared to show strong alignment with the administration’s goals for AI expansion, emphasizing the role of American chipmakers in leading the next wave of global tech infrastructure.
Other semiconductor stocks also saw a lift. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) gained 1.2% in premarket trading, while Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) rose 2.5%.
A Perfect Storm for Nvidia
With both increased corporate investment and supportive government policy aligning, Nvidia appears to be sitting in a sweet spot. The company has already been the poster child of the AI-driven tech rally over the past year, and these latest developments could provide further upside.
As the AI arms race heats up, Nvidia’s dominant position in GPU-based computing, combined with a surge in demand for AI infrastructure, places it at the center of one of the most powerful trends in global technology.
Big Banks Signal Strength: What Q2 Earnings Reveal About the U.S. Economy
Big Banks Say the Economy Is Healthier Than It Feels
Despite a backdrop of political uncertainty, trade tensions, and rising consumer prices, America’s largest banks delivered a surprisingly optimistic message last week: The economy is stronger than headlines suggest.
Quarterly earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and other major banks showed resilience in both consumer and commercial credit markets, as well as solid performance in core banking operations. For investors and consumers alike, the takeaway was clear: Don’t underestimate the American economy.
Consumers Are Keeping Up—Thanks to a Strong Labor Market
All four major consumer banks—JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—reported low levels of delinquency and charge-offs. In simple terms, people are paying their bills on time, and banks aren’t having to write off large amounts of bad debt.
“While there are nuances around the edges, consumer credit is primarily about the labor market,” said JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum during the bank’s earnings call. “In a world with a 4.1% unemployment rate, it’s just going to be hard—especially in our portfolio—to see a lot of weakness.”
This is a key point. Despite consumer sentiment surveys showing anxiety over inflation and policy uncertainty, people with jobs continue to service their debt responsibly, reinforcing the idea that confidence may be low, but fundamentals are strong.
Commercial Credit Risks Are Contained—for Now
There were a few blips in the commercial lending space. Wells Fargo noted a slight uptick in net charge-offs for business clients, and Citigroup flagged a rise in nonaccrual corporate loans. But in both cases, executives were quick to frame the losses as isolated rather than systemic.
“These were borrower-specific, with little signs of systematic weakness across the portfolio,” said Wells Fargo CFO Michael Santomassimo. At Citigroup, CFO Mark Mason chalked it up to an “idiosyncratic downgrade,” not a broader deterioration.
Translation: yes, there are always trouble spots—but there’s no wave of defaults or credit contagion brewing.
Political Uncertainty and Inflation Still Cloud the Outlook
Despite the upbeat tone from Wall Street, Main Street isn’t feeling quite so secure. Confusion surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs, continues to inject volatility into markets and impact consumer prices. Recent inflation data already reflect rising costs tied to import duties, especially on everyday items.
This disconnect between economic performance and consumer perception is worth watching. While banks are operating from a position of strength, uncertainty in fiscal and trade policy could influence corporate behavior, investment decisions, and hiring down the line.
What It Means for Investors
The S&P 500 Bank Index has rebounded sharply in recent months, and strong earnings across the board suggest the rally may have legs. Still, much of the positive narrative hinges on the continuation of low unemployment and a resilient consumer.
For now, bank executives are betting on stability, even in the face of inflation, geopolitical risk, and shifting monetary policy. Whether that optimism proves well-placed will depend on how the macroeconomic story unfolds in the second half of the year.
Bottom Line:
The nation’s largest banks just delivered a collective vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. While consumers feel the pinch of rising prices and policy ambiguity, the underlying data—especially around employment and credit—tell a different story. And for now, at least, the story is one of quiet strength.
Trade Deal With Japan Lifts Market Sentiment, But Auto Sector Voices Concern
U.S.-Japan trade deal impact on stock market
Stock futures surged early Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “massive Deal” with Japan, bolstering hopes for additional trade agreements and easing market uncertainty surrounding upcoming tariff deadlines.
Trump’s Tuesday night post on Truth Social revealed that the U.S. and Japan had agreed to a trade pact featuring reciprocal 15% tariffs on Japanese exports to the U.S. The news gave a boost to equity markets:
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Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 215 points (+0.5%)
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S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%
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Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.1%
The president also indicated that U.S. officials are actively negotiating with European leaders on a similar trade accord ahead of an August 1 tariff deadline—an effort aimed at building a more favorable international trade environment following his sweeping April 2 tariff announcement that roiled markets.
Markets React Positively
Wednesday’s uptick followed two consecutive intense sessions for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 posted a modest 0.06% gain Tuesday, marking its 11th record close of 2025, while the Dow advanced nearly 180 points. However, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4% as chipmakers came under pressure.
Investors are now looking ahead to major earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, both of which are due after the close. Their results will kick off a critical earnings cycle for the megacap tech sector, which has been pivotal in driving market momentum. Other closely watched reports include Chipotle Mexican Grill and Mattel, as earnings season heats up.
So far, results have been strong. Of the 105 S&P 500 companies that have reported, over 86% have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.
Automakers Push Back
Despite the market’s upbeat tone, the new U.S.-Japan trade deal has sparked backlash from American automakers. The American Automotive Policy Council (AAPC), representing GM, Ford, and Stellantis, has raised red flags over a provision that would drop tariffs on Japanese auto imports to 15%, while Canadian and Mexican imports remain subject to a 25% rate.
Matt Blunt, AAPC president and former Missouri governor, warned:
“Any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no U.S. content than the tariff imposed on North American built vehicles with high U.S. content is a bad deal for U.S. industry and U.S. auto workers.”
Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Mexico to 30% and Canada to 35% starting August 1, further fueling industry fears.
Industry Impact Already Visible
The effects of the administration’s aggressive trade stance are already showing.
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GM said its Q2 earnings took a $1.1 billion hit from tariffs and warned of a worsening impact in Q3.
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Stellantis reported a €300 million ($352 million) cost from U.S. tariffs so far in 2025, noting cutbacks in vehicle shipments and production.
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In May, AAPC criticized a UK trade deal that allows British automakers to ship 100,000 cars per year at a 10% tariff, arguing it disadvantages U.S. workers.
The White House, however, stood by the deal. Spokesman Kush Desai called it:
“A historic win for American automakers by putting an end to Japan’s unfair auto trade barriers for American-made cars.”
Outlook
While markets embraced the news as a sign of progress on the trade front, the underlying tension between political wins and economic consequences is growing sharper—particularly in the automotive sector. With earnings from key players on deck and the August 1 deadline looming, both investors and manufacturers are bracing for a high-stakes month.
Bottom line: The trade deal with Japan has injected near-term optimism into the markets, but unresolved tariff imbalances and mounting industry costs may temper that enthusiasm as the full implications unfold.
Netflix Beats Earnings Expectations, But Stock Drops as Growth Concerns Mount
Netflix Earnings Beat Expectations, But Stock Dips as Growth Questions Loom
Netflix (NFLX) has long been the dominant force in streaming, consistently outpacing competitors in revenue, profit, and global reach. But even the leader isn’t immune to market expectations—and the weight of a half-trillion-dollar valuation.
The company’s second-quarter earnings report, released Thursday, painted a picture of continued strength. Revenue and operating margins both grew from the prior quarter, and Netflix raised its full-year guidance. The company is now on track to generate $13.5 billion in operating income in 2025, nearly ten times what Disney is expected to earn from its entertainment-streaming operations.
Yet the market response was tepid at best: Netflix shares fell more than 5% on Friday following the announcement. Why the selloff after what looks like another solid quarter?
A Great Business, But a Pricey Stock
Netflix’s fundamentals are undeniably strong. It boasts more than 300 million paying subscribers, expanding profitability, and a dominant market share in the global streaming industry. However, investor expectations have already factored in nearly perfect performance.
At a valuation of nearly 44 times projected earnings, the bar is sky-high. Over the past six months alone, shares surged nearly 50%, giving Netflix a market capitalization north of $540 billion—more than double Disney’s. Even solid earnings may not be enough to sustain that pace.
The company has internally set ambitious targets to double its revenue and reach a $1 trillion market cap by 2030. That’s a bold vision, and one that requires new engines of growth beyond subscriber gains.
Advertising: The Growth Frontier
One area where Netflix is investing heavily is in advertising. In the Q2 report, management reaffirmed its goal to double the size of its ad business in 2025. However, even with aggressive growth, ad revenue is expected to reach only $3.9 billion this year, representing less than 9% of the total expected revenue.
That puts Netflix far behind digital ad giants like YouTube, which generates nearly $37 billion in ad revenue annually and consistently outperforms Netflix in U.S. TV viewing share, according to Nielsen.
Engagement Worries and Competitive Pressures
While Netflix remains the global leader in subscription streaming, signs of stalled engagement have begun to emerge. Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris estimated that Netflix viewership declined 1.5% in June and 2.5% in May, raising questions about whether the platform is still gaining attention in proportion to its growing value.
Analysts are also pointing to a need for evolution. Citigroup’s Jason Bazinet suggested Netflix should open its platform to content creators, following the path of YouTube and TikTok. That would be a massive strategic pivot, but one that could unlock new monetization and engagement opportunities beyond traditional long-form entertainment.
The Bottom Line
Netflix is doing better than fine—it’s thriving. But with a sky-high valuation and ambitious long-term targets, even strong quarters like this one won’t guarantee stock gains. The company must now prove it can grow beyond the subscription model, succeed in advertising, and hold viewers’ attention in an increasingly fragmented content landscape.
If Netflix wants to be a $1 trillion company, it may need to think—and act—more like a platform than a network.
What do you think? Is Netflix still a buy at these levels? Or has the stock run ahead of reality? Share your thoughts in the comments.